Cap space, the free-agent market and the draft are the hot topics in this week’s edition of Pistons Mailbag.
@isthoth: Last year we had $60 million in cap space and didn’t sign an impact player, choosing to use the cap space to facilitate trades landing us Bojan Bogdanovic, Alec Burks and Nerlens Noel. Will Troy Weaver go after Cam Johnson or will he waste another $30 million on aging veterans who don’t move the win total?
Langlois: The Bogdanovic trade wasn’t really about cap space. The Pistons traded Kelly Olynyk and Saben Lee for Bogdanovic, a trade made independently of cap considerations. If you have a quibble with the outcome of that trade, I don’t know what to tell you. The cap space deals were the trade that netted the Jalen Duren pick that also included taking on Kemba Walker’s contract and the additions of Burks and Nerlens Noel from the Knicks for, essentially, nothing. Johnson’s a good player, but he’s a restricted free agent. The history of desirable restricted free agents who switched teams can be written on a cocktail napkin. The quality of this year’s free-agent class at the position of need for the Pistons is such that I would be inclined to believe they will again attempt to use cap space to facilitate trades and add to the roster that way. Brooklyn isn’t facing nearly the cap crunch that was coming had it gone into the off-season with Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving still on the roster and Irving hitting free agency, so it’s likely the Nets can move enough contracts around to make retaining Johnson feasible. How would it look if they let one of the two key players acquired for Durant – Mikal Bridges, the other, is under long-term control – walk after a few months?
Langlois: There will be 58 players drafted June 22 – two short of typical with Philadelphia and Chicago docked second-round picks – and Bates is rated 57th by ESPN.com and 76th by The Athletic. When you say the risk/reward would be high, I see the risk being waaaay higher than the reward. Get it right, you’re a genius and guarantee yourself another contract if you’re the GM who picks a fringe draft prospect at No. 5 and he becomes an All-Star. Get it wrong and you’re out of work before the next draft rolls around. Bates was on the cover of Sports Illustrated 3½ years ago and there was talk he’d be the No. 1 pick in the 2022 draft on the expectation that the NBA was about to eliminate the one-and-done rule that, in fact, remains in the next collective bargaining agreement. He was considered the best freshman basketball player in Michigan since at least Chris Webber and perhaps ever. What happened is up for debate, but it’s been a very long while since Bates was looked at like that. At this point, a good short-term outcome for him would be to get a two-way contract and rebuild his stock.
@wtfheat/IG: Who’s our target in free agency? Position wise, no names. I’ll just guess.
Langlois: It’s a pretty thin free-agent crop. There are some big names but older veterans likely to head back to their teams. Some of the most desirable free agents are restricted and the history of them changing teams is sparse. Teams are becoming more proactive to extend players before they hit free agency. Given all of that, I’d bet the Pistons are more likely than not to use their cap space to facilitate trades. As for positions, the clear need on the roster as of today – and draft night could alter the outlook – is on the wings. The Pistons have four young big men in Jalen Duren, James Wiseman, Isaiah Stewart and Marvin Bagley III and three lottery guards picked since 2020 in Jaden Ivey, Cade Cunningham and Killian Hayes. The wing is where they figure to allocate their resources (draft picks, cap space) this summer.
@StevenGold67: How much do the Pistons have to spend on free agency this summer? How much do they have until they hit $169 million luxury tax cap?
Langlois: The Pistons go into free agency with about $30 million in cap space. The cap is projected at $132 million and the luxury-tax limit at $162 million for 2023-24, but the exact figures won’t come out until the moratorium period after the final tally on league revenue comes in for the 2022-23 season. There’s no foreseeable way the tax limit will come into play for the Pistons. The most common way that happens is when teams use Bird rights to retain their own free agents when they’re already at or over the cap. The Pistons aren’t in that position. As some of their younger players on rookie deals near free agency, they’ll have more to consider.
@ratheallseeing/IG: Cade/Ivey/J Brown/Wiseman/Duren, make it happen.
Langlois: I’ll assume your intent is for the Pistons to acquire Jaylen Brown somehow. He’s under contract with Boston for 2023-24 with a cap figure of about $32 million and he’ll be looking for a raise in his next deal. There will be speculation about Boston making significant changes if the Celtics don’t recover from a 3-1 deficit to the No. 8 seed, Miami, in the conference finals. I’m skeptical Brad Stevens will move Brown and, if so, no idea what the price would be for the Pistons. But at least one of those four names you surrounded Brown with in your supposition, logically, would have to be part of the package. It’s a long shot, at best.
@MikeGeorgeMoff: Are the Pistons even trying to expand their search to Mike Budenholzer or Monty Williams? Or are we just going to have to deal with hiring somebody who has no NBA head coaching experience?
Langlois: Take what you know from various media reports about coaching searches with a grain of salt. Most of it comes from agents – coaches have agents, too – and agents for lower-profile coaches have every incentive to make it known their clients are under consideration. Agents for higher-profile coaches – like a Williams or a Budenholzer – would be much more circumspect. In fact, they might have more incentive to keep their candidacy for certain jobs quiet.
@connor_waple/IG: What draft wing fits the best as a true 3-and-D guy for our roster?
Langlois: I don’t think that’s the guiding principle Troy Weaver will take into draft night, but it’s a lot more applicable this season than it’s been the past two or three. The Pistons have some foundational pieces in place now, they have a clear roster need – wing players – and the strength of this draft where the Pistons are picking, fifth, is in wing players. As to which one fits best, if you’re basing fit strictly on 3-point shooting and defensive potential, I’m not sure there’s an obvious answer. The Thompson twins would raise the athleticism and length of the Pistons perimeter but wouldn’t bring shooting. Jarace Walker might project as a solid defensive wing but he probably projects best as a mobile big than a wing. Taylor Hendricks might offer the best combination of shooting, size and defense but does he have the athletic upside of Cam Whitmore? That’s the decision on Weaver’s plate. Does he project the Thompsons to develop enough as shooters, Hendricks to have as high a ceiling, Whitmore to reach his potential? Two or three years from now, the answers probably will be evident. In order to move the Pistons forward faster, Weaver has to know the answer by June 22. I might be leaning to Whitmore today. Not sure if I’ll feel the same in four weeks.
@hasanisaylo_realtor/IG: Is Anthony Black the best two-way 6-foot-7 prospect … at 19?
Langlois: And then there’s Anthony Black, who also should be on the short list of players under consideration. He might project more as a guard than a wing but, really, if he can guard wings then he can fit. Black only hit 30 percent from three on relatively low volume, so there’s a lot of projection involved in determining what he might become, as well. But there’s a lot to like if you see a future where he hits at league average from three and commands respect as a shooter.
@KoreaPistonsFan: Any chances we’re getting Chris Quinn?
Langlois: His name surfaced early in the process and he’s been mentioned on the edges of a few other coaching searches the past couple of off-seasons. It seems inevitable he’ll get his shot sooner or later.
@Miguel72742107: Head coach: Why not Becky Hamman?
Langlois: Hamman’s name came up early in the Toronto coaching search, but since then she’s been suspended by the WNBA and her team stripped of its No. 1 draft pick. Is that enough to eliminate her from consideration? The first woman to be hired as a head coach in any major men’s professional sport is going to be a big story and she and the people who hire her are going to be under a microscope. That’s the reality. Coming in under the cloud of WNBA suspension might make it a bridge too far. We’ll see.
Melvin (Detroit): Looking for a head coach, go to Cleveland and talk to Greg Buckner. He could be a good fit for an up-and-coming team.
Langlois: He’s got a strong resume with a decade in the league as a player and now more than a decade as a coach, elevated to Cleveland’s associate head coach position last year. I haven’t seen him linked to head coaching jobs, but maybe I missed it and, in any case, a guy who’s been around as long as he has in multiple capacities is going to have an extensive network of contacts. He’s one who’s likely to get a shot within the next few years.
Darrell (Detroit): Let’s say Troy Weaver decided he can improve the roster by trading one of his four bigs and settles on James Wiseman. Come draft night, how high a pick do you think the Pistons can get for Wiseman? Dallas is in desperate need of a center. Toronto may be in a similar since Jakob Poeltl is not under team control and perhaps Dallas would go after him as a free agent.
Langlois: It’s a good question. I suspect the answer would be disappointing. First-round draft picks are like new cars. Cars lose value once they’re driven off the lot and first-round draft picks lose value once they’re exercised. Wiseman, coming up on the last year of his rookie contract, is now firmly into “prove it” territory. The nature of the four-team trade that resulted in the Pistons swapping Saddiq Bey and Kevin Knox for Wiseman also included Golden State getting five second-round picks from Atlanta and sending them to Portland for Gary Payton II. I don’t know what the equivalent first-round pick would be for five seconds. Maybe 20? I doubt five seconds gets you into the lottery.