The draft and whether the Pistons can land a top-three player, trade back or pick up another lottery pick dominates the discussion in this week’s edition of Pistons Mailbag.
@albapepper: How hard is Troy Weaver looking at Dyson Daniels at five? If Sharpe is available at five, is that pretty much a lock?
Langlois: Daniels generated a lot of buzz coming out of the NBA draft combine, but whether that reflects a sudden elevation of the consensus opinion on him from personnel evaluators or whether it was the draft media merely catching up to that opinion is unclear. Daniels played for the G League Ignite last season, so the scouting on him will be extensive. My hunch is that Daniels isn’t really looked at differently today than he was two months ago across NBA front offices, but the networking that goes on at the combine allowed journalists to get a wide sampling of opinions and learned how well regarded Daniels really is. Whether he’s made enough of an impression to put himself firmly in the mix for the No. 5 pick is another matter. He seems to check a lot of boxes Weaver values from a size, versatility and demeanor perspective. As for Sharpe at five, no, I wouldn’t say he’s a lock at all. It’s widely assumed the first three off the board will be Chet Holmgren, Jabari Smith and Paolo Banchero and there’s probably something approaching a 50 percent chance that Jaden Ivey goes to Sacramento. If that’s the case, then I think the betting favorite for the Pistons probably would be Keegan Murray by a narrow margin over the other contenders, but that’s based on consensus opinion and not on any insight into Troy Weaver’s thinking. So little is really known about Sharpe – and even less than that is known about Weaver’s evaluation of Sharpe.
Langlois: One of the most frequently asked draft questions and one of the easiest to answer. You almost always draft for the best player and it’s almost always a recipe for disaster if you don’t. Let’s go back to the 2020 draft when Golden State had the second pick and Charlotte had the third. The Warriors, with a roster that already included Steph Curry, Klay Thompson and Jordan Poole but thin up front, took James Wiseman with the second pick, leaving LaMelo Ball to Charlotte. Now, it’s certainly conceivable that the Warriors looked at Wiseman and Ball in a vacuum and determined Wiseman was the better NBA prospect. But if Golden State viewed Wiseman and Ball as equally likely to carve out All-Star careers and broke the tie by using the roster as justification, well, oops. It’s way too early to write off Wiseman, whose career has been severely limited by injury to date. And there’s no need to feel sorry for Golden State, which is back in the NBA Finals and favored to win over Boston. But how much better positioned to keep the window to contention open for another decade would the Warriors be if they’d drafted Ball? The Atlanta Hawks wound up getting pushed down to sixth in the 2019 lottery, the first year with the flattened odds when New Orleans and Memphis both made huge leaps up to draft 1-2, but before the lottery I recall reading something about the Hawks passing on Ja Morant at No. 2 if they got the second pick because they already had Trae Young. And I remember thinking, that’s crazy. You think they couldn’t have found a way to bring Morant off the bench as a rookie to have 48 minutes of dynamic playmaking – and then found a way to accommodate both players getting 35 minutes a night or, if it came to that, trading one or the other for a bounty? Drafting for need often winds up biting a team two ways. They miss out on a player that could have pushed the franchise significantly forward and they wind up still having the need they thought they were addressing when the player they picked doesn’t solve it. Get the best player. Things have a way of sorting themselves out.
@ck2_originals/IG: Thoughts on getting another lottery pick in the draft for Jerami Grant?
Langlois: Troy Weaver said he thinks there are good players throughout the lottery this year, so if you take that at face value it stands to reason he’d be open to adding another one. It’s tough to see any trade that involves Grant for a lottery pick at a slot below the Pistons pick at five making them a better team in 2022-23, but the other side of the coin is that a trade of Grant for a lottery pick – if it doesn’t involve taking back another contract to offset Grant’s, at least – opens the possibility of other trades or free-agent signings to bolster the roster. But without that second part, a trade of Grant for a lottery pick would seem to suggest the Pistons are giving themselves the flexibility to wait on bigger moves somewhere in the future. That could be a calculation made more clear to them by the nature of today’s Eastern Conference where 43 wins was only good enough to secure the 10th and final spot in the play-in tournament this season. A Grant-for-lottery-pick is something that one suspects would be given strong consideration, but doesn’t rise to the level of no-brainer decision.
Darrell (Detroit): This draft is so deep that I can see the Pistons trading the No. 5 pick to the Spurs for the No. 9, 20 and 25 picks. I believe Bennedict Mathurin, Jaden Hardy and Walker Kessler would bring greater value to the Pistons than any one pick at five alone. I could see the Spurs making this move because not making the playoffs is completely unacceptable to San Antonio.
Langlois: Teams with three first-round picks are always among the likeliest to be active in the trade market, so it wouldn’t be entirely surprising if the Spurs worked to package any two of their picks to move up. (Then again, if they agree with your assessment of the draft’s depth and see more value in 9, 20 and 25 in aggregate than in 5 alone, why would they trade?) I’d be surprised if they’d give up both 20 and 25 in addition to nine to move up four spots. Seems like a lot. If you’re Troy Weaver, you probably take that even if shoehorning three more first-round picks onto an already-young roster presents its own issues. Who’s the target for the Spurs at No. 5 that moves the needle so much that they’d see it as ensuring a playoff berth next season?
Glenn (Novi, Mich.): In your recent Mailbag, you mentioned the Pistons could start next season with Isaiah Stewart, Kelly Olynyk, Marvin Bagley III and Luka Garza as our bigs. I know we have other more pressing needs (3-point shooting), but how much value would you place on getting better vertical rim protection? Is that a must-have or a nice-to-have for an NBA team?
Langlois: Rim protection isn’t solely about blocking shots, although it’s the most obvious one. Stewart might not block a ton of shots (1.8 per 36 minutes for his career), but his strength and positioning are things that deter ballhandlers from the restricted area. Bagley doesn’t block a ton, either (1.0 per 36 for his career), but he’s really good at drawing charges. Adding a shot-blocker would be great, but at what cost? If you get somebody who blocks twice as many shots as Stewart but isn’t nearly as capable of staying in front of guards and that, in turn, causes the Pistons to require different coverages when Stewart vs. his backup are at center, that comes at some expense. It probably means more mistakes in assignments because it creates more snap decisions and that means more frequent breakdowns. A shot-blocker who is an offensive liability isn’t going to be a net positive, in all likelihood. Dwane Casey is big on drawing charges. He’s of the mind that you’ve got to give him one or the other, block shots or draw charges. You can build a strong defense without having a big-time shot-blocker, but you’ve got to have other elements of rim protection in the mix to make up for shot-blocking deficiencies.
@austin_wolters: Any thoughts on Detroit trading down to save money and focus on free agency this summer?
Langlois: There might be valid reasons to trade down, but saving money for free agency wouldn’t be a very likely one. The cap hold for the No. 5 pick is just shy of $6 million. The Pistons endured a tough season and getting a lottery pick was the saving grace, even if it didn’t yield a top-three pick. Your odds of getting a really good player are better at five than they would be at 10 or 15 and the difference in the cap holds for those spots would give the Pistons about $2 million to $2.5 million more in free agency. Unless you have ironclad evidence to know that difference would mean a significantly better free agent, the money seems better spent on the higher draft pick where, theoretically at least, you have a better chance to land a star. It’s sometimes the case that contending teams picking in the 20s want to get off of the cap hold (usually in the $2 million range) to give them a little more leeway in free agency, but I don’t remember an instance where a team picking near the top of the draft was scared off by the cap hold.
@cocob1989/IG: Really surprised we haven’t been linked to Zach LaVine this summer. Any thoughts on how he’d fit?
Langlois: LaVine is 27, he’s averaged at least 23.7 points a game over the last four seasons, he’s played in the last two All-Star games and he was a key contributor to the 2020 USA gold-medal winners last summer. Pretty sure every team in the NBA thinks LaVine would fit very snugly on their roster. With the Pistons, getting a scorer of that caliber next to Cade Cunningham seems like a pretty good formula. He’s the kind of guy contenders chase and get creative with their cap structure. If he leaves Chicago, my bet would be he lands on a legitimate 2023 title contender.
@TimForkinNBA: There’s the Troy Weaver quote about not filling a roster with 20-year-olds because they won’t all make it out. Is that a preview into the Pistons strategy at the draft – take an older prospect ready to contribute and don’t acquire any extra lottery picks?
Langlois: I wouldn’t interpret Weaver’s comment on roster composition to mean he’s looking to draft an older player vs. a teenager. I took it to mean you can’t have all first- and second-year players. Whoever the Pistons draft is going to come in as an NBA rookie, whether he’s 19 or 22. Weaver wants some veterans who’ve been around the NBA for a while and have had to adapt to different roles and have seen what it takes to survive and thrive in the league. I don’t think that means he’d shy away from a trade that adds an extra lottery pick, though. He’s going to want a handful of guys on a 15-man roster who aren’t on rookie contracts, but he’s not going to pass up the chance to add elite talent in the process of getting there.
@CNSComedy: We end up with picks 5 and 7. Who are your picks?
Langlois: With Chet Holmgren, Jabari Smith, Paolo Banchero and Jaden Ivey off the board – the betting favorites to go 1-4 in some order – my money would be Keegan Murray and Bennedict Mathurin at 5 and 7. Well, not my money. But you know what I mean. Somebody has to get taken at 6, so it would be pretty silly to actually bet on that scenario. But if I had to bet, that’s my bet. Today, at least.
@fastdaze: Will the Pistons draft Murray and hold onto Grant until the trade deadline or trade him on draft night? Is there a world where they would keep both?
Langlois: Sure, absolutely, there’s a world where they keep both. Two-way wings who can score and have the ability to switch defensively up and down lineups are the starting pitchers of the NBA – you can never have too many. If it turns out the Pistons have too many good players from a wing corps of Grant, Cade Cunningham, Saddiq Bey, Isaiah Livers and Murray – even though Cunningham’s ability to function as a point guard and Grant’s length and shot-blocking make him a prototype small-ball center means there are times you could play all five of them simultaneously – it would be extremely easy to spin one or two off in trade.
@nnoodle64: Keith – Are the Pistons in play for Deandre Ayton?
Langlois: I think the question is if Deandre Ayton is in play, period. I was leaning a heavy no right up until Game 7 of the Phoenix-Dallas series and its immediate aftermath, when Ayton didn’t play much and Monty Williams gave a seemingly ominous response when asked why. Now it seems the Suns, whose decision to not extend Ayton at max dollars before the 2021-22 season cracked the door to speculation about their valuation of him, might very well be inclined to move on. It seems like an overreaction to a disappointing finish to a regular season in which they were the NBA’s best team, but nobody on the outside has the same pool of knowledge regarding Ayton as the Suns. If he’s really up for grabs, there probably are several teams who’d be open to giving him the contract he wants. If it comes to a sign and trade, then you’re not just talking about committing a big chunk of cap space to him but also parting with players, probably good ones. The Pistons really like Isaiah Stewart and they’ve given every indication they intend to retain Marvin Bagley III, but if they see a clearer path to contention by committing the $30 million-plus annually it’ll take to get Ayton, then it’s something worth exploring. Troy Weaver has been up front about the need to build patiently. I’m paraphrasing, but he said something along the lines of you only get one chance to get this right. If the Pistons make a play for Ayton, it means they see him as a cornerstone for not just a franchise but for a title contender alongside Cade Cunningham.
@BillOffer: Is one of the top three prospects going to drop to the Pistons at 5?
Langlois: As of today, it seems there’s almost zero chance that happens. If something comes up – say, something in a medical report or another bit of new information to give pause to the top three teams – that causes one of Chet Holmgren, Jabari Smith or Paolo Banchero to slide, well, that same information might mean the Pistons view others as more attractive options, as well. There comes a tipping point where whatever it is that causes the slide doesn’t matter as much, but if it’s enough to cause the team picking third to pass it might still be reason enough for the team picking fifth to look elsewhere. I’d put the odds of the Pistons landing one of Holmgren, Smith or Banchero at 5 percent or less. And that’s probably overstating it.