We’re less than a month from the NBA draft lottery and that has Pistons fans in a stir about what to do and how to approach the rest of their off-season in this week’s edition of Pistons Mailbag.
@vonmigal: Is there any chance of picking Jaden Ivey in the draft?
Langlois: Ivey is pretty much universally considered a top-five pick, so … sure? There’s a 67 percent chance the Pistons will be picking in the top five. Without knowing how Troy Weaver and his inner circle with the Pistons view Ivey, it’s hard to gauge exactly what the odds would be if, say, the Pistons wind up with the fourth pick and the three big men – Chet Holmgren, Paolo Banchero and Jabari Smith – are all off the board. But, on paper, Ivey would be a nice complement in a backcourt with Cade Cunningham and Killian Hayes. His athleticism would give the Pistons a different dynamic there. I know Ivey wasn’t regarded as a great defensive player at Purdue, but he’s got the physical tools to become one. The Pistons surely don’t want to burden Cunningham with the responsibility of guarding opposition point guards, so it’s important they have someone alongside him who can do that. Hayes surely can. Ivey has the tools to do so. Ivey hit threes at a 36 percent clip on decent volume (five attempts a game) as a Purdue sophomore after being under 30 percent as a freshman. The Pistons also want proficient 3-point shooting around Cunningham. A big part of the evaluation of Ivey – and everybody else they’ll consider with their lottery pick – will be how they project the 3-point shooting to mature.
Langlois: I don’t know that Weaver and Pistons brass will be grinding their teeth with the same intensity during the draft lottery next month that they were last year, but a dream off-season probably starts with at least slotting among the top four. I think Weaver would take that outcome and run with it if you could guarantee it today. I don’t see any prospect considered a top-five candidate who wouldn’t fit well with the current core and improve the outlook. Because the Pistons have so many young players under team control for next season (and beyond in many cases), I would bet that however much money the Pistons are left with in free agency after accounting for the cap hold for their lottery pick and the $7.3 million qualifying offer I assume Marvin Bagley III will be presented will be directed at one player as opposed to split up among two or three free agents. There’s a caveat there: The right player has to be in play. It’s a fairly thin free agent class at the top. Not many teams will have significant cap space this off-season – a handful, maybe – and chances are the top players will come off the board in the opening hours. But the Pistons aren’t going to have a ton of roster spots barring trades that create spaces. And they also have a nice core in place now. So free agency will be more about quality than quantity. I would expect Weaver to pull off a trade or two, but some of that will be dictated by what the draft and free agency yield.
@mixswiss1/IG: Should the Pistons consider trading down in the draft for a shooting guard to keep Marvin Bagley III and Jerami Grant?
Langlois: I think I’m following the logic of the question – the top of the draft is more likely to yield players (Chet Holmgren, Paolo Banchero, Jabari Smith) who’d be candidates for minutes at power forward, where Grant gets the lion’s share of time and Bagley is another option. But I don’t think you let that dictate your draft strategy. The Pistons don’t intend to be picking at the top of the draft again anytime soon, so they’re going to use the opportunity to draft someone they think can be an impact player. Trading down diminishes those odds. The positional logjam will sort itself out, if it comes to that. Get the star. Now, if it’s a matter of trading down one or two spots – fourth to sixth, say – and Troy Weaver is comfortable the guy he thinks can be the better player will be there at six and he pockets another asset in the process, sure.
Darrell (Detroit): If the Pistons declined all team and qualifying options, then waived and stretched Kelly Olynyk’s remaining $15.8 million over five years, they’d have $55 million in cap space. Their cap hit for the draft will be between $5 million and $10 million. That leaves $45 million to $50 million, which is enough to sign both Deandre Ayton and Jalen Brunson. Those two, along with Jerami Grant, Saddiq Bey and Cade Cunningham, make for an awesome starting lineup. The second unit would consist of Cory Joseph, Killian Hayes, Isaiah Livers, Isaiah Stewart and a probable top-three pick. That sounds like a very young team that can contend in the East for many years. The Pistons might not have a first-round pick next year and the 2023 free-agent class is especially weak. So it’s best to go all-in now. This might be the shortest rebuild in NBA history.
Langlois: Your plan assumes that Phoenix isn’t matching whatever offer the Pistons put in front of Ayton and I’m skeptical that would be the case. If the Suns win the NBA title, are they really going to let a championship team break up over the extra million or two bucks a season beyond what they hoped would lock up Ayton? And if they come up short, are they not going to be further motivated to come back and take another stab at it? I can’t imagine risking alienating the fan base like that over what amounts to scraps.
The history of ownership there is the cause for speculation Ayton might not be back, but I’ll believe it when I see it. And Brunson isn’t going to be easy to pry away from Dallas – or, perhaps, other NBA teams with cap space. The Knicks are a team rumored to be interested in Brunson, though I suppose it bears mentioning that some in New York media assume every player’s desire is to suit up for the Knicks. The Pistons would be casting adrift Olynyk, Hamidou Diallo and Frank Jackson, which cuts into their depth. Not saying it wouldn’t be a good tradeoff if your master plan falls into place. But when it hinges on a decision completely beyond their control – Phoenix’s choice to match an offer sheet – I wouldn’t have the stomach to set it in motion. Troy Weaver had an interesting response when asked about using trades vs. free agency given the inherent risk of overpaying in the latter. “I like trades,” he said last week. “Free agency can be a little tricky. I feel good about our process either way. People thought Jerami (Grant) was an overpay. Now that’s a really value contract. You’ve got to know the players and know their value and what they add to your team. We like trades, for sure.” The Pistons’ first-round pick is protected through 18 in both 2023 and ’24. If they don’t have it next season, it’s because they made the playoffs pretty comfortably.
@kyle.liberati/IG: Is the best interest taking a shot with Chet Holmgren or an all-around player like Jabari Smith?
Langlois: I’m not sure Holmgren doesn’t project to be more of an all-around player. Smith probably has the best tool with the potential to be a 40-plus percent 3-point shooter with great size. But Holmgren’s a more skilled ballhandler and his defensive impact could be enormous if he holds up physically. It will be fascinating to watch how it plays out between those two and Paolo Banchero leading up to the draft and then as their careers unfold.
@GaryPer97322392: If the Pistons get a top-three pick and take Jabari Smith or Paolo Banchero, will this pressure them to trade Jerami Grant?
Langlois: Not in the least. If you had phrased it, “will this liberate them to trade Jerami Grant?” I might answer slightly differently. I don’t think the Pistons would expect Smith, Banchero or Chet Holmgren, for that matter, to be able to step in and offer the same level of production that Grant provides and that’s important. The sense Dwane Casey and Troy Weaver projected in their postseason press conference was that the final few months of this season signaled a new phase of their evolution. The present has always taken a back seat to the future since Weaver began wheeling and dealing in November 2020 when the NBA transactions moratorium was lifted coming out of the 2020 COVID-19 season. Now it’s going to be more in balance. That doesn’t rule out a trade of Grant, necessarily, but they are going to have to think harder about the tradeoff between present and future as the outcome of any moves. A year ago, they probably would have been willing to take a short-term hit to augment future success. That’s going to be a tougher thing for them to do now – unless the payoff for the future was too great to ignore. But, no, I don’t think adding one of the rookies who projects to getting most of his minutes at Grant’s position will force their hand to trade him. It might make them more open to considering it and in doing so they might find something that makes sense for both the present and the future. But I don’t think they’d unduly weigh the future at the expense of the present any longer.
@shoulderworks: If the Pistons drop out of the top five and can’t get Deandre Ayton, do they go big with Jalen Duren even if a Johnny Davis or Bennedict Mathurin are available?
Langlois: If we’re saying the top five – in any order – are Chet Holmgren, Paolo Banchero, Jabari Smith, Jaden Ivey and Keegan Murray and they’re all out of play if the Pistons were to fall to six or seven (their worst possible outcome), then Duren would seem to be on a relatively short list of possibilities. The draft is June 23, a week ahead of free agency, so the Pistons couldn’t have clarity on Ayton or Phoenix’s response to an offer sheet – but all of that assumes the Pistons are planning to build their free-agent plans around an offer sheet to Ayton. I’m skeptical that’s where they’re leaning. The Pistons are clearly bullish on Isaiah Stewart’s future, so let’s start with that and add that if Duren were to be the pick it would be solely because Troy Weaver felt Duren was the best NBA prospect available. There’s room for two young big men on the roster. I wouldn’t bet on Duren being the guy, but neither would I rule him out simply because of his position and the fact Dwane Casey has identified adding shooters to surround Cade Cunningham as a clear priority for the off-season. They won’t force it and take someone over Duren if they really believe he’s the player who carries the most value at his draft slot.
@shalamarthegawd: If you were the Pistons GM, what would be your pitch to make a run at top-tier free agents?
Langlois: Unless you’re talking about the guys who are no-doubt maximum contract guys – where making a pitch and promoting the best possible vision of your franchise’s future might be the differentiator – then the pitch usually comes down to whoever puts the most guaranteed money on the table. But the Pistons have a pretty good situation to pitch. I’d go back to what Kevin Durant said in his postgame comments after the Nets had to hold off the Pistons 130-123 on March 29. “When you’ve got a 6-7 point guard, that’s a good start,” Durant said, referring to Cade Cunningham, brilliant that night with 34 points, 27 in the game’s final 16 minutes after sitting out a good chunk of the first half due to a hard tumble onto his tailbone. “You know what I mean? Somebody that can wreck a whole defensive game plan with his size, his talent, his skill. So that’s a great start. You go down the line. Saddiq Bey and Marvin Bagley and Jerami Grant and Isaiah Stewart. They’ve just got length and toughness down the line with a great coaching staff that’s going to get the best out of their players. I can see this team being a force to be reckoned with in the future.” The Pistons have a state-of-the-art practice facility – the second home for players during the season and, as it turns out, for much of the off-season now, too – and play their home games in one of the NBA’s newest arenas filled with creature comforts. They have a general manager in Troy Weaver and a coach in Dwane Casey who are widely admired by players. It’s not a tough sell. I’m not saying they’re going to put all their stock in free agency, but if Weaver keeps winning in trades and the draft, the cap situation will be in good shape, wins will follow and free agents will have further incentive to sign up.
@22tiggermjk/IG: Can Beef Stew be a starter on a Pistons playoff team or is he a bench player?
Langlois: He’s 20 so we’re not anywhere near having a definitive answer, but Stewart showed this season he can hold his own against starting centers and that was one of the biggest revelations of the Pistons season. The drop-off from starter to backup is probably steepest at center than any other position and Stewart maintained his productivity in year two despite playing more minutes and doing it against much stiffer competition. Beyond that, he got better as the season went along, especially after the All-Star break. He’s a solid NBA player right now with the chance to become a tier or two above that soon. In three or four years, we’ll see how far he goes. Shooting 11 of 18 from the 3-point line, as Stewart did over the final eight games, opens up a lot of possibilities.