The value of mock drafts is mostly limited to entertainment, but this close to the draft they’re at least worth monitoring for trends across their spectrum. Even then, it can be more about groupthink and copycatting, but it can also stem from effective intelligence gathering.
The NBA draft combine comes on the heels of the lottery to set the draft order and serves as a tipping point for the credibility of mock drafts. There’s a gusher of information that comes out of the combine, but making sense of it is another matter. Knowing what’s real and what’s shared only as a means of masking the truth is challenging.
But some things have come more sharply into focus and others have gotten at least a little less fuzzy since the combine wrapped up two weeks ago. The season-long assumption that Chet Holmgren, Jabari Smith and Paolo Banchero would go 1-2-3 in some order seems on more solid footing than ever today. A roundup of 12 mock drafts with substantial history is in universal agreement that they’ll be gone before Sacramento picks at four, never mind the Pistons at five.
Barring some late curveball in a medical report or another equally chilling factor, there seems almost no chance the Pistons wind up with Holmgren, Smith or Banchero on draft night unless they manage to trade up two spots.
Purdue’s Jaden Ivey remains the most popular pick to be taken by Sacramento one spot ahead of the Pistons, slotted there in a full 75 percent of the dozen mock drafts. Of the three where Ivey is still available, the Pistons take him every time.
ESPN.com’s Jonathan Givony, in his most recent update released on Tuesday, wrote this after having Smith, Holmgren, Banchero and Ivey go in his top four and sending Iowa’s Keegan Murray to the Pistons: “The Pistons would likely be disappointed to see Ivey off the board in this scenario. Still, drafting the most productive player in college basketball this season in Murray would be an excellent consolation prize.” Later on, he writes, “(Shaedon) Sharpe will also get a long look here, but he will need to have a strong showing in a competitive private workout setting to solidify his standing at this slot.”
It’s fair to assume that Givony, who’s been doing this for two decades and has as many connections to scouts as most, isn’t pulling those observations from thin air. It’s also doubtful that they came from someone with direct knowledge of Pistons general manager Troy Weaver’s thinking. The further removed from Weaver the information, the more filtered and less reliable it becomes. Poke around and you’ll find others who seem to subtly suggest the Pistons aren’t as enamored of Ivey as Givony suggests. That’s the game in the fog of pre-draft analysis.
But it will be interesting – if the details become public knowledge, at least – what the draft workout for Sharpe looks like, assuming he agrees to one with the Pistons. (It will also be interesting if he doesn’t, or arranges one and then pulls out, since that would spark speculation he’s going to Sacramento.)
It’s become fairly rare for players considered mid- to high lottery picks, as Sharpe is, to work out with other prospects. Given that Sharpe didn’t participate in athletic testing or interviews in Chicago, it would be at least mildly surprising if he works out in a group setting. Right or wrong, it seems Sharpe’s camp is content to take him into draft night with no more information at hand than can be gleaned from due diligence and studying AAU tape. If Sharpe works out with a group for the Pistons, either he’s very eager to play in Detroit or his camp is concerned it needs to do something to demystify their client.
Here’s a look at the 12 mock drafts studied to glean a consensus:
ESPN (Jonathan Givony): 1. Jabari Smith; 2. Chet Holmgren; 3. Paolo Banchero; 4. Jaden Ivey; 5. Keegan Murray
The Ringer (Kevin O’Connor): 1. Chet Holmgren; 2. Jabari Smith; 3. Paolo Banchero; 4. Shaedon Sharpe; 5. Jaden Ivey
NetScouts Basketball: 1. Jabari Smith; 2. Chet Holmgren; 3. Paolo Banchero; 4. Keegan Murray; 5. Jaden Ivey
NBADraft.net: 1. Jabari Smith; 2. Chet Holmgren; 3. Paolo Banchero; 4. Jaden Ivey; 5. Keegan Murray
SB Nation (Ricky O’Donnell): 1. Paolo Banchero; 2. Chet Holmgren; 3. Jabari Smith; 4. Jaden Ivey; 5. A.J. Griffin
The Athletic (Sam Vecenie): 1. Jabari Smith; 2. Chet Holmgren; 3. Paolo Banchero; 4. Jaden Ivey; 5. Shaedon Sharpe
Sports Illustrated (Jeremy Woo): 1. Jabari Smith; 2. Chet Holmgren; 3. Paolo Banchero; 4. Shaedon Sharpe; 5. Jaden Ivey
Basketball News: 1. Jabari Smith; 2. Paolo Banchero; 3. Chet Holmgren; 4. Jaden Ivey; 5. Shaedon Sharpe
Bleacher Report (Jonathan Wasserman): 1. Jabari Smith; 2. Chet Holmgren; 3. Paolo Banchero; 4. Jaden Ivey; 5. Keegan Murray
Yahoo! (Krysten Peek): 1. Jabari Smith; 2. Chet Holmgren; 3. Paolo Banchero; 4. Jaden Ivey; 5. Shaedon Sharpe
CBS (Kyle Boone): 1. Jabari Smith; 2. Chet Holmgren; 3. Paolo Banchero; 4. Jaden Ivey; 5. Keegan Murray
CBS (Gary Parrish): 1. Chet Holmgren; 2. Paolo Banchero; 3. Jabari Smith; 4. Jaden Ivey; 5. Keegan Murray