Tom Gores sold Monty Williams on how deeply the Pistons wanted him to become their coach. Troy Weaver sold Williams on the quality of character he’d find in his locker room. Williams himself spoke glowingly of the young talent he inherits from Dwane Casey.
Now it’s about confronting the challenge of figuring out how it all fits together to maximize that young talent. And Williams, signed to a five-year contract, probably won’t go into another season as Pistons coach with as many possibilities for lineup constructions to consider as he faces in season one.
And only a fraction of that challenge is because Williams has yet to coach anyone on the roster. It’s more about the number of players at similar stages of development and the fact there isn’t a whole lot of separation between so many players in the middle of the roster.
Here’s a look at that roster and how it stacks up from the perspective of who will certainly be in the rotation, those likely but not locks to be in the lineup on opening night and those on the rotation bubble. You can argue that there’s more uncertainty – and more promise – with this Pistons rotation than at any time in a generation.
LOCKS (3) – Cade Cunningham, Jaden Ivey, Bojan Bogdanovic
There’s little doubt that if those three are healthy, they’ll be in the lineup on opening night and commanding major minutes. It’s certainly possible they will be the only three players on the roster to average 30 minutes a game, though it’s also conceivable that Bogdanovic, 34, has his minutes scaled back some from last season’s 32 given the depth Weaver has provided Williams.
Bogdanovic’s shooting, though, and, really, his all-around scoring ability complements so many of his teammates – Cunningham and Ivey, foremost – that it’s tough to see those minutes rolled back too much unless others like Isaiah Livers, Joe Harris and Ausar Thompson all are bringing their strengths to the table on a consistent basis.
The Pistons are probably going to be rightly cautious with Cunningham coming off season-ending shin surgery last December, so he’s isn’t likely to flirt with 35-plus minutes. But he’s going to be on the floor to start and close games and carry a heavy offensive burden while he’s in there. Ivey will be at his side for a significant number of overlapping minutes. And with veteran Monte Morris added, the Pistons can afford to keep Cunningham and Ivey together as often as Williams likes and let Morris run the offense the rest of the time.
PROBABLES (3) – Isaiah Stewart, Jalen Duren, Monte Morris
Stewart and Duren are close to locks, but there’s enough uncertainty given the presence of four young big men plus a new coach with a fresh perspective to list them as probables. The smart money would be on Duren to start at center and Stewart at power forward on opening night.
Even if Williams ultimately scraps the two-big starting lineup and opts for a starting unit with Bogdanovic at power forward and any from among the group of Isaiah Livers/Joe Harris/Ausar Thompson at the other spot, it’s hard to imagine a rotation that doesn’t include both Stewart and Duren given what the Pistons know of Stewart’s value to the group and Duren’s immense potential and encouraging rookie production.
Morris might have the most clear-cut role on the roster. He’s a proven steady hand recognized as among the very best backup point guards in the league and a player perfectly capable of handling starter’s minutes if needed. His allergy to turnovers, remarkably consistent 3-point shooting and basketball IQ give the Pistons a great head start on fielding a dynamic bench unit.
ON THE BUBBLE (6) – Isaiah Livers, Marvin Bagley III, James Wiseman, Joe Harris, Ausar Thompson, Alec Burks
This is an unusually large bubble group and it’s very likely that four among them are part of the opening-night rotation if the roster stays intact and all hands are available.
If Stewart and Duren are starters, then there’s surely room for one of Bagley or Wiseman as center with the bench unit. If Williams decides to play two big men with each unit, then Wiseman and Bagley could conceivably play together.
If Livers can avoid the string of relatively minor injuries that have plagued his first two seasons, his defense, IQ and 3-point shooting make him a strong contender for bench minutes. Burks’ pure scoring ability and knack for drawing fouls probably makes him the front-runner to play alongside Morris in the backcourt.
If Williams goes with one big man on the bench unit, then Harris, Burks and rookie Ausar Thompson are fighting for minutes at the two and three, assuming Livers is the four. If healthy, Harris is going to be hard to keep out of the mix as a 1 percenter among elite 3-point shooters. Thompson provides everything but 3-point shooting. It’s not out of the question that Thompson, Harris, Burks and Morris could play around a big man on the second unit against benches that play with smaller lineups.
Williams could also extend his rotation to 11, using Thompson for a specific defensive matchup as the situation warrants.
IN THE WINGS (2) – Killian Hayes, Marcus Sasser
Hayes had a great month of December last season and seemed to have turned the corner, then struggled with his shot most of the rest of the season before finishing on a high. He turns 22 this week – he’s 10 months younger than Sasser – and is still a long way from a fully realized version of himself, but the Pistons have made clear their goals have shifted from player development as the clear-cut priority. Hayes will have to outperform Morris in training camp to put himself into the rotation picture and he’ll have to prove his production can remain consistent. Because Morris, the Pistons know, is reliably consistent.
Sasser’s 40-point Summer League finale gave a glimpse of the jolt he can provide, but time is on his side here. Burks is ahead of him going into camp and has a long track record of being an efficient NBA scorer. If everyone in the backcourt is healthy, the Pistons can afford to let Sasser marinate in the G League for the early going and pick their spots for him after that.
It's also worth noting the Pistons still have an open roster spot and the “room” mid-level exception at their discretion. The list of available free agents has been whittled down by this point, so it’s no sure thing the roster is filled by a signing. It could be the Pistons are leaving their options open to help facilitate trades. And that avenue could bring the rotation decisions into a sharper focus.