When the Oakland A’s pioneered the tsunami of analytics that stormed baseball and rippled into other sports a generation ago, they weren’t necessarily thinking that batters with high on-base percentages were a trump card over all else – only that the rest of baseball undervalued that stat and provided them an opening to capitalize on a market inefficiency.
The basketball equivalent as it applies to the NBA draft, perhaps, is capitalizing on the general depreciation in value of big men.
A generation ago, Isaiah Stewart’s draft status likely would have reflected his composite recruiting ranking as a top-five player in the country for the high school class of 2019. But for a variety of reasons, Stewart wasn’t remotely talked about as a lottery candidate when he declared for the 2020 NBA draft after one season at Washington.
Troy Weaver, in his first draft as Pistons general manager last November, landed Stewart two spots out of the lottery with the 16th pick. Here’s a look at Stewart’s 2020-21 season:
PROFILE: 6-foot-8 center, 20 years old, 1 NBA season2020-21 STATS: 7.9 points, 6.7 rebounds, 21 minutes per gameSTATUS: Stewart has three seasons remaining on the first-round rookie contract he signed with the Pistons in November 2020
A LOOK BACK: Isaiah Stewart was the nation’s No. 2 consensus recruit in the high school class of 2019, behind James Wiseman and ahead of Cole Anthony and 2020 No. 1 pick Anthony Edwards. Stewart, who grew up in the Buffalo, N.Y., area, finished his high school career at La Lumiere Prep in LaPorte, Ind., averaging 18 points and 13 rebounds a game as a senior for a 30-1 team. Stewart chose Washington over Duke, Kentucky, Syracuse and Michigan State. In his only college season, Stewart averaged 17 points, 8.8 rebounds and 2.1 blocked shots while shooting 57 percent in 32 minutes a game to earn first-team All-Pac 12 honors. Stewart declared for the 2020 NBA draft after his freshman season ended on March 11 – the day the NBA would suspend its season due to the COVID-19 pandemic – with a first-round loss to Arizona in the Pac-12 tournament. Washington’s losing record was hardly Stewart’s fault; stats showed that the Huskies were 11 points per 100 possessions better than their opponents with Stewart on the floor but 12 points per 100 possessions worse without him.
THE SEASON THAT WAS: Despite his recruiting profile and his outstanding freshman season at Washington, Stewart was widely projected to go in the 20s on draft night as NBA scouts struggled to project what he would be at 6-foot-8, though he also possesses a 7-foot-4 wingspan. Stewart played near the basket in Washington’s zone defense and on offense was used mostly in post-up situations, which has become almost non-existent as an option in the NBA. But Pistons general manager Troy Weaver, who in the early 2000s served alongside Washington coach Mike Hopkins as assistants to Syracuse’s Jim Boeheim, became extraordinarily bullish on Stewart and used a first-round pick – the 16th overall, obtained from Houston – to grab him. Stewart forced his way into the rotation in the first week of the season and made month-over-month progress all while playing his entire rookie year as a 19-year-old. His strong hands, exceptional motor, strength and fearlessness made Stewart a disruptive defender whose physicality dissuaded penetrators and discouraged rebounders. He was named second-team All-Rookie despite making only 14 starts.
A LOOK AHEAD: The Pistons fully expect Stewart to continue making a broader impact as he refines an already impressive skill set and maximizes a typical NBA off-season after being handcuffed by pandemic protocols and the fact the gap between draft and training camp last fall was less than two weeks. Weaver saw in Stewart the potential to develop a facing-the-basket game with shooting range to the 3-point line despite little evidence of it as a collegian owing to the way he was utilized. Even though Stewart was inordinately strong for a teenager, he was nevertheless a teenager and will become an even more imposing physical force as he matures physically and takes advantage of an NBA training regimen. The potential for 3-point shooting that Weaver spotted at Washington will be further developed. Dwane Casey also saw it coming in workouts and practices before Stewart, who took only five 3-point shots in the season’s first 36 games, shot 58 over the second half of the season and finished making a respectable 33 percent.
MONEY QUOTE: “Toughness, grit, having that chip on your shoulder and not caring what anyone thinks. Just go out and play hard. Go out and do everything you’ve got to do to win. It’s great history with those teams, those players. The fact they see that in my game, it’s definitely a great thing to see.” – Isaiah Stewart on what Pistons basketball means to him and comparisons of him to Dennis Rodman and Ben Wallace