Training camp is under way, the first preseason game is five days away and the questions came fast and furious for this week’s edition of Pistons Mailbag.
Bruce Brown 4 MVP (@MvpBruce): What are your thoughts on Bruce Brown vs. Luke Kennard in the starting two spot?
Langlois: If you’re asking whom I think is going to start, my bet is Brown. Dwane Casey has consistently leaned that way, even though he’s quick to say he hasn’t decided anything yet, in discussing the matter. The nut of his logic is that what Kennard does best – make plays with the ball, specifically in pick-and-roll situations – is best put to use with the second unit where he won’t be the fourth option behind Blake Griffin, Andre Drummond and Reggie Jackson. He might be the second option on the second unit behind Derrick Rose. Casey is leaving the door open because he needs to see some evidence that Brown’s apparent summer improvement – he led Summer League in assists by a wide margin, displaying surprisingly keen judgment in pick-and-roll situations – will translate with the first unit. And to see how the Rose-Kennard chemistry – on a unit that’s likely to also include Markieff Morris, Langston Galloway and perhaps Joe Johnson, Thon Maker or others – develops in preseason games and scrimmages. It’s the most logical outcome, but it’s not a done deal. Having said all of that, I would anticipate Kennard taking a leap forward this year to the extent that he’s on the floor to help win up-for-grabs games. Among reasonable outcomes, that would be as big as any development for Pistons success this season.
Zack (@idunkedonzelda): Everyone’s up in arms about whether Luke Kennard should start or not. I’m more concerned about minutes for him. Any sense of how much Casey is going to give him this year?
Langlois: I understand your question, but Casey isn’t going to “give” Kennard anything. He’s got clear options with Bruce Brown and Langston Galloway and others capable of playing on the wings. Whether Kennard plays the 21 minutes a game he played before the All-Star break or the 26 he played after will be mostly in Kennard’s hands. I’d lean toward the 26 because I fully expect Kennard to pick up where he left off. He’s extremely encouraged about the off-season he put in. And while that’s not all that unusual – players who make it through a summer healthy are usually optimistic about the season ahead – Kennard was as forceful as I’ve ever heard him in talking about his prospects for the season when he discussed his readiness after Tuesday’s first training camp practice.
Jack (@JackStraayer): Will any rookies make an impact right away?
Langlois: I doubt that it will be Sekou Doumbouya. There are too many people ahead of him and there are too many unknowns with him at this point. He has the opportunity to change that perception, but let’s not underestimate the scale of the adjustments he faces on multiple fronts: new language – the Pistons are providing English tutoring for him – new country, new league, new teammates, new opponents, new surroundings. Jordan Bone and Louis King are the other rookies, both on two-way contracts. (Second-round pick Deividas Sirvydis will spend the season in Lithuania, so he’s a non-factor for purposes of this discussion.) Of the two, Bone has the more likely path to playing time. He’s No. 4 in the pecking order at point guard behind Reggie Jackson, Derrick Rose and Tim Frazier. Given the likelihood that the Pistons are going to give Rose nights off – the 13 back to backs are a place to start – I would anticipate that they’ll try to preserve the 45 available days (plus the windows before and after the G League calendar kicks in) Bone has to give them for those times and then hold him back in case injury depletes the depth chart. They’ll have a lot more options to use before they’d need to rely on King on the wings, especially given Casey’s willingness to play conventional shooting guards like Langston Galloway, Bruce Brown, Luke Kennard and Khyri Thomas against small forwards. Bone has the best chance to play meaningful minutes, though it’s unlikely that will happen on a consistent basis unless injuries cut deep into the point guard corps. Doumbouya is next in line. Then King.
KOZA/Sizzle (@K0zaa): Who do you think will be the odd man out on the roster?
Langlois: I don’t think it’s as simple as Joe Johnson vs. Christian Wood for the final roster spot. There’s a realistic scenario in which both are on the final roster. It will depend more on Wood, I think, than on anything else. If he convinces Dwane Casey and Ed Stefanski that he’s capable of playing 20 minutes a night if the situation calls for it, I would expect the Pistons to try to find a way to create a roster spot for him. As for Johnson, I find it unlikely that a guy with his resume didn’t gain some assurance that there’d be a roster spot available as long as he made it through training camp healthy, especially in light of the fact that Johnson canceled workouts for a handful of other teams to join the Pistons. Read what Casey says here and then draw your own conclusions.
Kamil (@KKursatY): Which lineups are the most useful for Dwane Casey – starters, bench and more?
Langlois: I’ve written that the Pistons have two locks to be opening-night starters (Blake Griffin, Andre Drummond) and two others who are near certain (Reggie Jackson, Tony Snell). The fifth spot likely comes down to Bruce Brown vs. Luke Kennard with Brown the front-runner based on the reasoning provided in my response to a previous question. That leaves Kennard to lead the second unit along with Derrick Rose and, presumably, Markieff Morris. The last spot or two could go to virtually anyone on the roster, as I wrote recently. If Casey wants to push the pace, he could go with Tim Frazier alongside Rose in the backcourt with Kennard at small forward. If he wants five shooters, he could put Joe Johnson at power forward and Morris at center to go with Rose, Kennard and Langston Galloway. If he wants the longest team possible to protect the rim, he could go with Thon Maker and Christian Wood up front with any combination along the perimeter. If Sekou Doumbouya proves ready, he could take minutes at either forward spot – or even at center in a small-ball second unit.
Umair (@Umair121): Any Andre Drummond trade rumors?
Langlois: None worth their weight.
Steve (@BurqueWorld): Any chance Joe Johnson starts some games this season?
Langlois: Wouldn’t rule it out. Dwane Casey talked earlier this week about the Pistons being more prudent with their reliance on Blake Griffin this season. If there are nights the Pistons sit Griffin – back to backs, for one prominent example – then maybe Casey starts Johnson at power forward in an attempt to keep the second unit intact, allowing Markieff Morris to stay in his likely role. More interesting was Casey’s vision for how Johnson would be used, provided after Tuesday’s first training camp practice – a vision that included Johnson being a candidate to be on the floor to close games.
Chris (@Therrien5141): What role do you foresee for Derrick Rose this season?
Langlois: Alpha male with the second unit and a good bet to be on the floor to finish games, if not always then often. As long as the burst Rose displayed last season in a big bounce-back year for him at Minnesota is in evidence, he’s one of the rare players who can consistently make plays and attract double teams. Putting him on the floor with Blake Griffin, the other guy who commands that level of defensive attention, will make the Pistons a more diverse and dangerous team at winning time this season.
Rezidential (@rule24): How long is it going to take Derrick Rose to replace Reggie Jackson as the starting point guard?
Langlois: Don’t see that being in the cards. If Jackson were to miss time, then Rose is in line to replace him in the starting lineup. Even at that, I wonder if Dwane Casey would consider starting Tim Frazier to keep Rose in a familiar role and merely extend Rose’s minutes some instead of automatically kicking him up a notch on the depth chart.
Garry (@GarryG_OU): The overall roster appears improved. The second unit looks markedly better. Will we see coach Casey focus more attention on Blake Griffin’s minutes this season to be sure he’s available for a playoff run?
Langlois: As I mentioned earlier, yes, Casey discussed that at Monday’s media day. I don’t think Griffin is a candidate to play 75 of the first 78 games again, as he did last season. His minutes per game are probably going to come down a bit – not by more than 10 percent, certainly – from the 35 he averaged last season, as well. That’s in part because the Pistons are better equipped to field a potent scoring lineup with him off the floor this time around. When Jon Leuer couldn’t knock off the rust from the ankle and knee injuries of the previous season and off-season and Stanley Johnson was traded, the Pistons were left with really only Thon Maker as a viable alternative for Griffin at power forward down the stretch last season. This year they’ll have Markieff Morris and, likely, Joe Johnson to take minutes at power forward. Both of those guys can make shots and, in Johnson’s case, create them. Tony Snell and Svi Mykhailiuk can play power forward in small-ball lineups and Sekou Doumbouya is the wild card. By the second half of the season, he could thrust himself into the discussion, as well. The Pistons are considerably bigger and deeper this time around. They went into the off-season understanding they couldn’t lean on Griffin as heavily this season and they’ve accomplished their goal of fielding a credible offensive lineup without him.
Scott (@Edguero): What are truly reasonable expectations for Sekou Doumbouya this season given Dwane Casey’s use of young players?
Langlois: The reasonable expectation is that Grand Rapids Drive fans are going to see a lot more of Doumbouya than Pistons fans. Yes, as you intimate, Casey isn’t hesitant to use young players. But he’s not going to use him recklessly. He’s not going to throw him into the deep end until he’s seen evidence that Doumbouya won’t thrash around and risk drowning. The first step for Doumbouya is to show he can hang in training camp scrimmages. He’s going to make more than his share of mistakes, but if he can string together some flash moments and if eventually he makes more plays than gaffes, he’ll put himself on the radar. All those young players Casey threw into the fray in Toronto – Fred VanVleet, Norman Powell, Pascal Siakam, Delon Wright, Jakob Poeltl, O.G. Anunoby – had significant college experience and came to the NBA several years older than Doumbouya. Doumbouya’s size, his frame, his length, his hands, the way he carries himself and moves … it’s easy to see why the Pistons got a little weak in the knees at the prospect of getting him with the 15th pick. But is it reasonable to think an 18-year-old not named LeBron James can walk into the NBA and make an impact? No, no it is not.
Burak (@burakcankoc): Do you think Blake Griffin will average more than 3.0 made 3-pointers this season? What are the chances of Luke Kennard to win Most Improved?
Langlois: It’s tough to make three or more 3-pointers a game. Only 10 players did it last season and all shot more than Griffin’s 7.0 attempts per game (the range was 7.7 per game from Klay Thompson to 13.2 from James Harden) and all but two (Eric Gordon, Kemba Walker) shot it at a better percentage than Griffin’s 36.2 percent. So you have to be an above-average shooter and you have to shoot them at a very high volume. I think there’s a better chance that Griffin ups his percentage than his attempts this season, given that we expect that his minutes per game are likely to inch down. Even if his attempts per 36 minutes inch up, that’s probably going to be close to a wash on his attempts per game. Griffin finished 17th in the NBA last season with 2.5 made 3-pointers a game, so that’s really good. I’d bet on no for him going over three made triples a game. But he’s got a better chance to do so than Kennard winning Most Improved, because only one player can win and that makes everyone a very long shot. But, for what it’s worth, I expect Kennard to be an improved and more consistent player this season and, as I wrote above, that will mean a great deal to the success of the team.