With the regular season down to its final game and the first-round playoff matchup with Cleveland set, there’s lots to chew on in the latest edition of Pistons Mailbag.
Kevin (@ksteph5): How do you feel we match up against the Cavs? What’s your prediction?
Langlois: LeBron James, predictably, has ratcheted up his level of play over the past few weeks and is playing like one of the two or three best players in the world. Marcus Morris and Stanley Johnson will battle him hard, but he’s more than capable of carrying a ragtag team through a playoff series. Alas, it’s not a ragtag bunch that surrounds him. He’s got Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love, arguably two other top-20 players – and guys capable of carrying teams on a given night. Then they’ve got depth in 3-point shooting to exploit the openings that are the certain outcome of overplaying to force the ball out of the hands of their stars. And Tristan Thompson gives them extra possessions with his offensive rebounding. All of that said, the Pistons are 2-1 against Cleveland this season with their win on the road in February arguably the biggest of the season, given that they came into the game at a season-worst two games under .500 and in danger of slipping out of the playoff race. Getting their feet wet will be worth the experience no matter how it turns out, but giving themselves a chance to win games will make it even more beneficial to them down the road. There’s a reason No. 8 seeds almost never get out of the first round in the NBA. In fact, it’s happened just once since the first round went to the best-of-seven format 13 years ago when the 2007 Golden State Warriors, seeded eighth, upset the 67-win Dallas Mavericks. That was a series that underscored how critical matchups can be in the playoffs. That Golden State team was led by perimeter scorers like Baron Davis, Monta Ellis, Jason Richardson, Stephen Jackson and Al Harrington and simply raced around the more conventional Mavericks. The Pistons don’t have the same type of obvious matchup advantage over Cleveland, but – though painfully short of playoff experience – they are a little more potent than the typical eighth seed with a chance to close with 44 wins.
Adam (Fort Myers, Fla.): How serious do you think Reggie Jackson’s injury is? Will he be in the starting lineup for Game 1?
Langlois: That’s the expectation, Adam – or at least the hope. The term “abdominal strain” is fairly broad and vague, though, and core injuries surely have been known to linger. The Pistons need Jackson at full strength to have a shot against Cleveland. He’s a very difficult matchup for the Cavs. Without him – or with him at something less than his best – there’s that much less room to operate for Andre Drummond, Tobias Harris, Marcus Morris and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope. I doubt we’ll see Jackson in the regular-season finale at Cleveland tonight with nothing at stake for either team, so he’ll have three or four days – depending on which day Game 1 falls – to rest and get treatment for his injury. That had better be long enough. It would be a shame to get to the playoffs and not have their leading scorer and offensive catalyst in their arsenal.
Frank (Canton, Mich.): Aron Baynes seems to be developing quite nicely. Do you think some NBA teams might view him as a fringe starter and, in turn, give him potential trade value?
Langlois: Whether teams view him as a starter or as the ideal backup, he has trade value. But he’s filling the role Stan Van Gundy signed him to play just as he had imagined he would. If the Pistons traded him, they’d be looking for somebody exactly like him to fill the critical role of backup center to Andre Drummond. Baynes is highly unlikely to be part of any trade package unless the Pistons are presented with an offer too good to pass that necessitates his inclusion. Long shot. Very long.
Tom (Watervliet, Mich.): Maybe in the off-season the Pistons could consider Joakim Noah. He could add high energy, consistent hard work, leadership and excellent defense.
Langlois: Noah has a huge cloud hanging over his head with regard to his injury history, Tom. But, yeah, his is going to be a fascinating free agency. I think there’s a shot he waits it out and signs a short-term, below-market deal to play for an elite team, chase a ring and re-establish his market value. There is a lot of wear on his tires, given how many minutes he’s logged and how hard he’s played. But I’ve heard countless coaches and scouts, usually off the record, say that Noah more than anyone else was the heart and soul of the Bulls teams that enjoyed such a good run under Tom Thibodeau. I don’t think the Pistons will be the match for Noah, given that their other needs are going to gobble up most if not all of their cap space. But he’d help any team, for sure.
Josh (Ferndale, Mich.): This year’s draft has a number of young big men currently projected in our range who could develop into nice complements next to Andre Drummond such as Ivan Rabb, Domantas Sabonis, Marquese Chriss, Thon Maker and Diamond Stone. All of them are long-term projects. Last year Van Gundy’s staff selected Stanley Johnson, who has upside but was also considered to be one of the more physically ready players available. Plus, coaches who are also GMs usually have more incentive to pick a player who can produce quicker. Will that still be a criterion in this year’s selection or will the Pistons attempt to calculate who will ultimately be the best player?
Langlois: That’s the draft – once you get past the top handful, maybe two handfuls, in most drafts you’re into heavy projection of what players can become at the NBA level. The NBA is a vastly different game than college (or international) basketball and you need sharp scouts and personnel executives to study players and figure out how their skill set will translate from one level to the next. You’re right that there seems to be a large number of young big guys who figure to go from the late lottery to the early 20s – with the Pistons picking somewhere in that range. You can add Michigan State’s Deyonta Davis to the list, too. Picking through your question, I’d dismiss any concern that Stan Van Gundy is going to push his staff to give him players who can help immediately. He’s already got his entire starting five, his backup center and his top three reserve wings (Stanley Johnson, Reggie Bullock, Darrun Hilliard) either under contract or team control for next season. And that doesn’t include Jodie Meeks, also under contract for next season. It’s conceivable, I suppose, that the Pistons could be content with their No. 1 draft pick filling one of the two pressing roster needs we’ve cited – backup point guard, power forward with size – but I’d be surprised if they’d have that level of comfort with any player they draft in the late teens this year. Van Gundy has proven time and again with his personnel decisions that he’s not at all prone to short-sighted moves to satisfy the coach in him at the expense of the franchise’s long-term health. They’re going to take the player they feel has the best NBA career and asset value to him regardless of his readiness to contribute next season.
Matt (@MCriggs211): Do you think Spencer Dinwiddie has shown enough to be our backup point guard this year?
Langlois: Stan Van Gundy has as much as said he hasn’t, Matt. Before Dinwiddie injured his ankle playing for Grand Rapids in the D-League, Van Gundy said that they needed to see enough from Dinwiddie over the course of the remainder of the season to know if he’d be a viable candidate to be the backup point guard next season. It wasn’t enough, he said, for Dinwiddie to prove he could stick around as the No. 3 point guard. Dinwiddie had a good showing Tuesday against Miami and he’ll almost certainly get another shot in the regular-season finale against Cleveland. But if Reggie Jackson is healthy, as he expects to be, for the postseason run, then Dinwiddie is unlikely to get any meaningful minutes in the playoffs. That would mean his only opportunity to leave a positive last impression would be in Summer League. Had Dinwiddie not been injured at the time Brandon Jennings was traded, there’s a chance he might have gotten the opportunity to win the backup job ahead of Steve Blake, though Blake clearly has Van Gundy’s trust. As it stands now, backup point guard – along with a power forward to complement Tobias Harris and perhaps Anthony Tolliver, a free agent to be – will be the priority of the off-season needs list.
Nathaniel (@Nate_dogg_run): What do the Pistons need to improve upon most for this upcoming postseason and next season?
Langlois: Only so much you can realistically expect to improve on by the weekend after 82 games, Nathaniel, so I’d say they can strive to be more consistently focused defensively over 48 minutes as their immediate playoff goal. That will go a long way toward allowing them to stay in games to give themselves a chance to win against Cleveland. For next season, a lot of their team improvement will start with individual skills improvement for all of the young players that make up their roster. Without diving into each player’s areas of improvement, we can start with better perimeter shooting from Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Marcus Morris (though his hot streak over the past month has lifted him into league-average range from the 3-point line, which would be a great boost to the offense if it’s matched by others next season) and Tobias Harris. Maturity, experience, familiarity and roster stability – this off-season should be calmer than the past two – are all factors that should logically allow for more cohesion and improved defense next season, as well. An incremental upgrade of their bench depth also would benefit the Pistons.
Buk (Bangkok, Thailand): Do you think Stanley Johnson is out of the playoff rotation or will it just be a night-to-night decision? Reggie Bullock is playing well, but I’d hate to see Stanley miss out on the chance to get playoff minutes.
Langlois: He was reinserted into the rotation for Tuesday’s game with Miami, Buk, and precisely because Stan Van Gundy was looking ahead to potential playoff matchups with either Cleveland or Toronto. That’s what he said on Tuesday morning. Now the Pistons know they’ll be playing Cleveland. Johnson’s physical strength will be needed for stretches of minutes against LeBron James. He’s also done a credible job guarding Kyrie Irving when the teams have met this season on those occasions when Irving is playing off the ball. Johnson had a strong outing at Cleveland in February, the game in which he eventually sprained his right shoulder that caused him to miss seven games and led to a dropoff in production and ultimately losing his spot in the rotation when he returned. He’ll be in the mix when the Pistons return to Cleveland over the weekend to begin the playoffs.
Ethan (Radford, Va.): I like Stanley Johnson and think he has all the potential in the world to be our next great player. But I am not always a fan of his shot selection and volume at which he shoots. I don’t want to limit his minutes because I think it’s important for growth, but wouldn’t it make sense to tell him not to fire off so many in a game? Or does telling him not to shoot much affect his psyche? I just don’t want him putting up long contested 2-pointers with 15-plus seconds on the shot clock.
Langlois: The two big areas for Johnson to work on are his perimeter shooting and his decision making. He can spend hundreds of hours working on his shooting over the summer, but the decision-making process is best addressed only by playing time and experience. He’ll get some of that in Summer League and Stan Van Gundy said before Tuesday’s game with Miami that he can also be helped in that regard by watching videotape of his rookie performances. One other area Van Gundy talked about that will help in that regard is improving his skills – ballhandling, footwork, etc. – to better enable Johnson to make the plays he sees. Van Gundy has advised Johnson all season to focus on defense and rebounding when he comes into games and let offense come when opportunities arise. Basketball is a game of endless decisions that come rapid fire. Telling someone not to shoot so much sounds like an easy fix, but figuring out shot selection relative to time-and-score situations is a learning process that everybody has to endure and there’s no easy way to predict how fast or slow it comes for one player as opposed to another. With Johnson, my expectation is that his sheer competitiveness will shave time off of every benchmark he chases.