After suffering their first loss of the 2019-20 season Tuesday, the Denver Nuggets take to the road to face the new-look New Orleans Pelicans Thursday.
Denver (3-1) fought until the final seconds against the Dallas Mavericks, but ultimately came up short on the second night of a back-to-back. The Nuggets’ second unit struggled to keep up during key stretches of the game, as the Mavericks finished with 61 bench points on the night.
Although Denver’s defense has held up well through the first four games of the season, the offense continues to search for a rhythm, especially when it comes to 2-point shooting. The Nuggets have shot just 53.9 percent around the rim and 34.2 percent on mid-range jumpers, which rank 28th and 22nd in the league respectively. Yet beyond the arc, the Nuggets have had plenty of success to start the season. Denver ranks 10th in 3-point percentage (37.1 percent) and has four players that have connected on at least 42 percent of their 3-pointers (Gary Harris, Will Barton, Paul Millsap and Malik Beasley).
New Orleans (0-4) had one of the most eventful summers in the league, highlighted by the Anthony Davis trade and their selection of Zion Williamson with the No. 1 pick in the draft (Williamson will miss Thursday’s game as he continues to recover from a knee injury). However, New Orleans has continued to thrive on offense without the highly-touted prospect, mainly on the back of Brandon Ingram, who has averaged 27.3 points, 9.5 rebounds and 4.8 assists per game on 60.2 true-shooting percentage.
Here are some keys to watch for in Thursday’s game:
Another opportunity for the offense to get going
The Nuggets will face another bottom-five defense as New Orleans has struggled to defend this season. Through their first four games, the Pelicans own the 27th-ranked defense, which hasn’t been helped the absences of Jrue Holiday and Derrick Favors.
Teams are attempting 37.4 percent of their shots from beyond the arc and a staggering 44 percent around the rim, which is exactly the sort of modern shot chart that most teams strive for on a nightly basis.
As mentioned earlier, Denver’s offense has struggled to convert inside the arc, which makes this matchup with the Pelicans a perfect opportunity to attack the rim and get into a groove. The Nuggets rank 20th in the league in frequency of shot attempts at the rim and 22nd in frequency of shots from 3-pointers, but given the Pelicans’ vulnerability on the defensive end, look for that shot distribution to change Thursday.
Polar opposites when it comes to pace
It would be hard to find two more contrasting teams when it comes to pace of play. While the Nuggets sit last in the league in pace, New Orleans looks to run, run and run at all times, ranking sixth in the league. Given the amount of young guards and wings on the Pelicans’ roster and their lack of knockdown 3-point shooting, their strategy is to get as many easy baskets in transition as possible.
Denver has had an above league-average transition defense so far this season, but the Pelicans present a spooky challenge to deal with.
Taking care of business on the road
As Nuggets head coach Michael Malone has stressed over the years, in order to be a real playoff contender, teams must win away from home. That is especially true when playing teams that are in the process of rebuilding or re-tooling, like the Pelicans are.
Denver was expected to be a better team than New Orleans this season, and with the Pelicans dealing with several important injuries, it is crucial that the Nuggets take care of business at the Smoothie King Center. Over the course of an 82-game regular season, it can often be the wins against inferiors competition that puts a team over the edge and in favorable playoff positioning.
Projected starters: Jamal Murray, Gary Harris, Will Barton III, Paul Millsap, Nikola Jokić
Thursday’s game will tip-off at 7:30 p.m. MT and will air on TNT (Radio: 92.5 FM).