The Denver Nuggets are home for the holidays!
Sort of.
Denver (15-15) returns to Ball Arena for one game Thursday night, wrapping up a back-to-back that began Wednesday night in Oklahoma City. The Nuggets are certainly looking for a bounceback performance, as struggles on the boards and in the paint sunk them in a 108-94 loss to the Thunder, a game in which head coach Michael Malone opted to close the entire fourth quarter with the second unit.
The Nuggets now welcome the Charlotte Hornets to the Mile High City Thursday, hoping to enter the holiday weekend with a win. Charlotte (16-17) has struggled throughout their west coast road trip and has gone 2-5 over the past two weeks.
Issues on the defensive end (the Hornets rank 30th in defensive rating this season) have held the Hornets back, despite the team owning the second-ranked offense.
Denver swept the season series between the two teams last season.
TUNE-IN: 7 p.m. MT, Altitude TV and 92.5FM
Win the turnover battle
As mentioned earlier, Charlotte has struggled mightily on the defensive end this season, ranking in the bottom 10 in three of the four factors (opponent effective field-goal percentage, offensive rebound percentage, and opponent free-throw rate).
However, the Hornets have had success forcing turnovers using their aggressive defensive scheme. Charlotte ranks 12th in opponent turnover percentage, which has been paired with their very low 12.6 percent turnover percentage on the offensive end to give the Hornets an edge in the possession battle and jumpstart their offense.
Denver has improved in this regard offensively, ranking 10th in turnover percentage, but the Nuggets will have to be careful with the ball Thursday night, as any mistakes will fuel Charlotte’s transition attack (more on that below).
Get back in transition
On the second night of a back-to-back, Denver will have to make extra effort plays against Charlotte, who will look to push the pace at all costs, especially after forcing a live-ball turnover.
The Hornets rank third in pace, fifth in fast break points, and seventh in the frequency of possessions beginning with a transition play. In fact, that last ranking jumps to first when focused on possessions coming off steals.
Denver’s transition defense has been fairly effective this season, ranking above the league average in opponent frequency of possessions beginning with a transition play and opponent points added per 100 possessions through transition. The effort against Charlotte’s fast-paced attack will have to start with taking care of the ball on the offensive end for the Nuggets.
Let it fly from deep
When a team ranks 30th in defensive rating, it’s safe to assume it struggles in several areas on that end of the floor.
For Charlotte, struggles to limit teams from deep and around the rim have hurt the defense, as teams have been able to get shots up from both areas of the floor at a healthy rate. 40.2 percent of opponent shot attempts have come from downtown this season against the Hornets, the fourth-highest frequency in the league. Teams have connected on 36.3 percent of those attempts, a top-10 percentage.
For a Nuggets team that has been hot from beyond the arc this month (ranking sixth in 3-point percentage at 38 percent on 36.9 attempts per game), Thursday’s matchup could be exactly what Denver’s offense needs on the second night of a back-to-back.
All numbers as of Dec. 21.