After their seven-game winning streak was snapped on Christmas night in a loss to the New Orleans Pelicans, the Denver Nuggets will look to bounce back as they kick off a home back-to-back on Saturday against the Memphis Grizzlies.
Denver (21-9) has found plenty of success over the past two weeks, going 7-1 in that stretch as the offense has found a groove. Since Dec. 12, Denver owns the second-ranked offense in the league, as 3-point shots have been falling and the ball has been moving efficiently.
However, the Nuggets’ defense has slipped during this stretch, as their defensive rating of 108.4 over the past eight games ranks 14th in the league, a steep drop-off from their elite performance on that end of the floor to begin the season. The challenge now for Denver is finding and maintaining elite levels of play on both ends of the floor.
Memphis is in the early stages of a rebuild centered around Jaren Jackson. Jr. and Ja Morant. The dynamic young duo has captivated early with highlight-worthy plays and athleticism. At 12-20, Memphis has struggled on both ends of the floor, but has shown signs of improvement in recent weeks, especially on the offensive end. The Grizzlies have posted the fourth-ranked offensive rating over the past two weeks, which will present a challenge for Denver’s defense.
The Nuggets won the first meeting between the two teams back in November, as the Nuggets dropped 131 points in the win, which is still the highest they’ve scored in a game this season.
Here are three keys to Saturday’s contest:
Attack the basket and fire away from deep
The Grizzlies’ 21st-ranked defense can certainly be attacked and broken down, and the best way for the Nuggets to find success is by driving to the basket and finding open shooters on the perimeter.
Memphis ranks 18th in the league in their opponent’s frequency of shots coming around the rim, while the young Grizzlies also struggle to keep opponents off the foul line, ranking 26th in opponent free throw rate. Getting inside the paint would serve Denver well, as it could lead to free throws, easy baskets or kick outs to open shooters.
Opponents have shot 37.6 percent from beyond the arc this season against Memphis, which ranks 24th in the league. Although the Nuggets are by no means a team that focuses on 3-point shooting, they have shot the ball well during this 7-1 stretch and should look to get shots up from deep on Saturday.
In the first matchup between the two teams, Denver scored 50 points in the paint and shot 18-of-32 from beyond the arc.
Control the boards
Despite the comfortable victory over the Grizzlies in November, the Nuggets were actually outrebounded in that game. Memphis grabbed nine offensive rebounds and finished with a 52-45 advantage on the glass, which the Nuggets will look to avoid on Saturday.
Memphis is not an elite offensive rebounding team (ranking 21st in the league in offensive rebound percentage), but they do a good job in finishing defensive possession with a rebound, owning the 12th-ranked defensive rebound percentage. Denver’s defensive rebounding has slipped (ranking 14th in the league), but they have jumped into the top five in offensive rebound percentage, so look for the Nuggets to attack the offensive glass early and often.
Can Murray replicate his magic from November?
In the first matchup between two young, dynamic guards, Jamal Murray certainly got the best of Ja Morant. Murray dropped a season-high 39 points on 14-of-24 shooting in Denver’s win, while he also chipped in eight assists and three steals. Morant was held to 13 points in 21 minutes of action, but he has only continued to improve as his rookie season has unfolded.
Morant owns averages of 17.9 points and 6.4 assists per game this season and is certainly a frontrunner for Rookie of the Year given his ability to produce in a leading role for Memphis. The flashy rookie point guard will be looking for a bounce back performance against Denver this time around, while Murray will be looking for some consistency as he has had scoring games of 28, six, 28 and eight points in that order over the past four games.
Projected starters: Jamal Murray, Gary Harris, Will Barton III, Paul Millsap, Nikola Jokić
Saturday’s game will tip at 3 p.m. MT and will air on Altitude (Radio: 92.5FM).