Since the All-Star break, there have been two main storylines surrounding the Nuggets’ play: turnover struggles and a lapse on the defensive end.
Although Denver is 4-3 since the break, the team’s defense has slipped to 27th in the league in defensive rating during that stretch. When you struggle to take care of the ball and to get stops on the defensive end, it’s going to be difficult to win at a high level.
Diving into the numbers during this stretch, Denver’s defensive struggles can be tied to three key areas. Since the Nuggets kicked off the “second half” of the season against the Oklahoma City Thunder, Denver has ranked 21st or below in opponent turnover percentage, offensive rebound percentage and free throw rate.
Opponents have posted an effective field-goal percentage of 54.4 percent during this stretch of games, which ranks 15th in the league in that span (Denver ranks 14th in the league over the course of the entire season in opponent effective field-goal percentage).
In terms of the other three defensive four factors, the Nuggets rank 15th in opponent turnover percentage, 17th in opponent offensive rebound percentage and 14th in opponent free throw rate over the course of the season, highlighting the struggles in those areas since the break.
When looking further into opponent shooting percentages, Denver has struggled to defend the rim during this period. Opponents have connected on 67.3 percent around the rim against the Nuggets since Feb. 21. On the other end of the spectrum, Denver ranked sixth in defending the mid-range and 13th in defending the 3-point line, which places them above the league average.
On Thursday, the Nuggets escaped with a 114-112 victory over the Charlotte Hornets. Following a disappointing defensive performance in the first quarter (as Charlotte scored 34 points and shot over 60 percent from the field), the Nuggets had enough success defending the rim and forcing turnovers to pull out a much-needed victory.
If Denver can regain its form on the defensive end when it comes to forcing turnovers and rebounding off of opponent misses, the defense should be able to bounce back to a top-10 level just in time for the stretch run of the regular season and the playoffs.