Before his team’s Eastern Conference semifinal series against the Miami Heat began, New York Knicks head coach Tom Thibodeau was asked about defensive improvement shown in the first round. The Knicks ranked 19th defensively in the regular season, but then held the Cleveland Cavaliers (who ranked eighth on offense) to just 101.9 points per 100 possessions in beating the four seed in five games. Thus far, that’s the lowest efficiency mark for any team in any series in this postseason.

Thibodeau dismissed the premise of the question, because he doesn’t believe his defense was only the 19th best in the league.

“The rating systems that some people use, I don’t go by,” he said. “My markers are defensive field goal percentage, 3-point field goal percentage, rebound margin, points in the paint, fast break points allowed. When you look at those markers, we’re pretty strong.

“I haven’t seen a defensive rating system, yet, that is accurate. I go by my own markers.”

By Thibodeau’s first marker (field goal percentage), the Knicks have the No. 2 defense in the conference semifinals, with the Heat having shot just 43.6% over the four games. By the second marker (3-point percentage), they’re first, with Miami having shot just 28.2% from beyond the arc. The Knicks have the higher rebounding percentage (despite the fourth quarter of Game 4), and Miami has averaged just 9.3 fast break points per game.

But the Knicks are down 3-1 as they return to Madison Square Garden for Game 5 on Wednesday (7:30 p.m. ET, TNT). And their own offense (106.1 points scored per 100 possessions, worst in the conference semis) is a big reason why they’re facing elimination.

But the Knicks’ overall defense also hasn’t been good enough against a team that ranked 25th offensively in the regular season, was without its best player in one of the four games, and has been without two of its six leading scorers all series. If the Knicks aren’t shooting well themselves, they can win ugly, but that would require being the better defensive team.

Too many layups

The Heat haven’t scored as efficiently as they did against the Bucks’ fourth-ranked defense in the first round. But that’s largely because they’ve shot much worse (31.4% vs. 45.0% against Milwaukee) from 3-point range. They’ve been able to get to the rim more, with Games 3 and 4 being the first and second times since mid-January that the Heat have attempted at least 30 shots in the restricted area.

As noted in this space before Game 3, the Heat have counters to the Knicks overplaying them on the perimeter. And the Knicks (Jalen Brunson and Julius Randle in particular) have had issues keeping dribblers in front of them:

The other three factors

Of course, success on offense or defense isn’t just about shooting. And while they haven’t shot as well from the field as they did in the first round, the Heat have turned the ball over less, gone to the free throw line more, and grabbed more offensive rebounds. And it’s those non-shooting areas, facets of the game in which the Knicks themselves were successful in the regular season, that has Miami one win from its third trip to the conference finals in the last four years.

The Heat have lived late in the clock for most of this series…

Knicks-Heat scoring (not including FTs)…

First 17 seconds of the shot clock: Knicks +38
Last 7 seconds of the shot clock: Heat +54

It's amazing how much Miami is living late in the clock. 32% of their FGA have come in the last 7 seconds, up from 18% vs. Milwaukee.

— John Schuhmann (@johnschuhmann) May 9, 2023

… and Jimmy Butler has lived at the line, averaging more than 10 free throw attempts per game. So Miami’s third possession of Game 4 may have been the most emblematic possession of the series, with Quentin Grimes fouling Butler with 0.5 seconds left on the shot clock.

One thing the Knicks didn’t do well defensively in the regular season (and something Thibodeau omitted from his markers) is force turnovers. They ranked 25th in opponent turnover rate, forcing just 12.9 per 100 possessions. And in this series, the Heat have committed just 11.5 per 100.

The Knicks rebounded well in the first two games, but then got destroyed on the glass in the two games in Miami, just the fifth and sixth times this season that the Heat have grabbed more than 36% of available offensive boards.

Note where Randle is compared to Bam Adebayo (also Grimes vs. Strus) when he commits a first-quarter turnover in Game 4, and then how nobody but Adebayo and Strus are in the picture when Gabe Vincent misses a fast-break layup:

Sometimes, it’s a make-or-miss league. And by Tom Thibodeau’s primary “markers,” his defense has been strong in this series. A lot of the time, they’ve defended well enough for the first 15 or 18 seconds of the shot clock. But teams have 24 seconds to shoot and sometimes, games can be lost even if the other team isn’t shooting particularly well. Another loss like that would bring the Knicks’ season to an end.

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John Schuhmann is a senior stats analyst for NBA.com. You can e-mail him here, find his archive here and follow him on Twitter.

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