2023 Playoffs: East Conf. Semifinal | Knicks vs. Heat

Playoffs Film Study: Heading into Game 3, Knicks and Heat present offensive contrast

The Knicks tied the series behind Jalen Brunson and Julius Randle's offense, but the Heat have been taking every advantage since the playoffs tipped.

Jalen Brunson bounces back on a sore ankle in Game 2, and his matchup with Jimmy Butler could decide the series.

Though both were close, the first two games of the Eastern Conference semifinal series between the Knicks and Heat have been very different.

In Game 1, New York was without Julius Randle and shot 7-for-34 (21%) from 3-point range; Miami dominated the second half and got a road win. In Game 2, the Heat were without Jimmy Butler and played zone for the final 36 minutes; the Knicks shot much better, came back from a fourth-quarter deficit, and evened the series.

But for both games, one thing that’s been the same is a different approach to offense. And that is best illustrated by time of possession. Knicks guard Jalen Brunson has averaged 9.8 minutes of possession, most in the conference semis. And on the Heat’s end of the floor, nobody has controlled the ball for more 5.4 minutes per game.

The New York offense is more about creating advantages through Brunson (and Randle to a lesser extent). Because of the zone, the Knicks passed the ball a lot more in Game 2 than they did in Game 1. But they’ve still averaged just 286 passes per 24 minutes of possession, well below their average of 300 per 24 (which ranked 25th) in the regular season. And they’ve recorded assists on just 55.1% of their field goals.

The Heat, even when Butler plays, are more about creating advantages through movement and off-ball actions. They’ve averaged 315 passes per 24 minutes of possession, and they’ve assisted on more than two thirds of their buckets.

Here’s some notes, numbers and film from each end of the floor as the two teams head to Miami for Game 3 on Saturday (3:30 ET, ABC).


1. The Jalen Brunson show

Though the Heat have played zone for three of the eight quarters, the Knicks have set 92 ball-screens for Brunson over the two games. That’s 31 more than have been set for any other player in the series. We saw in the fourth quarter of Game 2 how the Knicks were able to free Brunson by flipping a ball-screen against the zone.

Against man-to-man (and especially if Butler is his initial defender), a ball-screen can get Brunson a different matchup. It can also be used just so he can gain a small advantage and burrow into the paint, where he can find just enough space (using his deft footwork if necessary) to get a shot off:

Jalen Brunson floater

After he scored 27 points in Game 1 of the first round, the Cleveland Cavaliers started to blitz Brunson pick-and-rolls to get the ball out of his hands. Bam Adebayo is an elite defender who will switch a lot of screens and smother opposing guards in isolation, but the Heat haven’t really employed that weapon in this series, likely because it takes their best rim protector (and a critical rebounder) away from the basket. One time when Adebayo did switch onto Brunson, the Knicks found the space behind him for a dunk.

Brunson has shot 14-for-21 (67%) in the paint in this series, but just 1-for-4 from mid-range and 6-for-17 (35%) from 3-point range. If they’re not going to get the ball out of his hands, the Heat will surely hope to stay in front of him and force him to shoot from 15 feet and out.


2. Counter to the overplay

The Miami offense is more about movement. Among 117 players who’ve averaged at least 15 minutes per game in the playoffs, Caleb Martin (4.93 miles per hour), Duncan Robinson (4.84) and Max Strus (4.80) rank first, third and fourth in average speed on offense. And their movement is about a lot more than just getting shots for themselves.

The Knicks are trying to keep that movement contained, usually top-blocking the Miami shooters, so they can’t take the standard path around pin-down screens. The first counter to that, is cutting back door, which Strus did on the Heat’s first possession of the third quarter on Tuesday:

Max Strus back door cut

To protect against the back door, the screener’s defender can sit back in the paint. That’s when it helps to have a screener who can shoot. On the Heat’s last possession of the second quarter of Game 2, Brunson was top-blocking Strus and Josh Hart sagged off Kevin Love, who was setting the screen, to prevent the back-door. The simple counter was a role reversal, where Strus acted as the screener as Love popped out to an open 3 from the wing:

Kevin Love 3-pointer

(The Celtics might be the best at this action, with Al Horford as the screener-turned-shooter.)

A few possessions after the Strus back-door above, Adebayo got a dunk with a fake handoff, with Brunson (who didn’t top-block) trailing the shooter (who never touched the ball) and Mitchell Robinson jumping out high to prevent a 3-pointer. And on the very next possession, Strus got a layup by rejecting a screen and getting to the rim before either defender could recover.

This is the playoffs, where both teams know what the other is going to run. But outside of San Francisco, the Heat might be the best team in the league at taking advantage of a defense that overplays the scripted action.

Even when they’re shorthanded, defending the Heat is hard. But the Knicks did well enough down the stretch of Game 2, and the third of three straight stops (a stretch in which New York took the lead for good) was particularly impressive.

First, Hart slid out of the way, allowing Brunson to stay attached to Kyle Lowry on a handoff from Adebayo. Brunson did a good job of getting around a re-screen and Robinson hedged out, allowing Brunson to get back in front. Quentin Grimes tagged Adebayo’s roll and recovered back to the corner as Randle closed out on Kevin Love:

Knicks defense

Randle then blitzed a Lowry/Love pick-and-roll and Robinson switched out to Love when he flared out to the right wing. That left Adebayo open on a roll to the paint, but Grimes got there to deflect the pass. Hart couldn’t grab it and Caleb Martin had to force a near-impossible attempt at the shot-clock buzzer:

Knicks defense

A 24-second violation was called, but of course, the Knicks benefited from the officials not seeing that Martin’s shot grazed the rim. After nearly a full possession of great defense, Brunson didn’t find Gabe Vincent, who rebounded the miss and had an easy put-back … that didn’t count, with Brunson having been bailed out by the erroneous call.


3. Can either team run?

Neither team has gotten a lot in transition in this series. The Heat got three buckets off Love’s amazing outlet passes in the third quarter of Game 1, but they’re not a team that runs a lot. And in Game 2, the Knicks had just one live-ball turnover and Miami had just three transition points, their fewest in a game this season, according to Synergy tracking. The Knicks have run more, but have still averaged just 16.5 transition points in the two games, down from 21.2 (15th) in the regular season and 19.2 in the first round.

Miami ranked third in opponent turnover rate in the regular season, with Butler ranking second among individuals in steals. He had two in Game 1 and his potential return for Game 3 (along as he’s mobile) could help his team get some easier baskets.

Despite the lack of transition points, this series has been surprisingly efficient so far, with the two teams combining to score 114.9 points per 100 possessions through the two games. It may get tougher to score as the series goes on, but both teams will obviously stick with what got them here.

John Schuhmann is a senior stats analyst for NBA.com. You can e-mail him here, find his archive here and follow him on Twitter.

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