What Does The Hawks Draft Look Like After Tiebreakers?

Jennifer Pottheiser/NBAE/Getty Images

Story by KL Chouinard
Twitter: @KLChouinard

After the NBA broke ties for the 2018 Draft today, the Hawks now know the draft slots for 3 of their 4 picks as well as their odds of winning the Draft Lottery. 

The Hawks lost a draft tie with the Dallas Mavericks that was broken today. As a result, the Mavericks will get one extra combination (out of 1000) in the Draft Lottery to be held May 15, plus the right to pick before the Hawks if neither team wins a top-3 pick in the Lottery. With the one extra winning combination, the Mavericks have a 42.5 percent chance of winning a top-3 pick, while the Hawks have a 42.4 percent chance. The lowest the Hawks can fall in the lottery is the seventh pick. 

The biggest mathematical change due the tiebreaker outcome is that a #6 pick is now more likely and a #4 pick is less likely, as shown below.

graph

Here are the likelihoods of the Hawks nabbing each of the first seven picks:

1st: 13.7 percent

2nd: 14.2 percent
3rd: 14.5 percent 
4th: 8.5 percent 
5th: 32.3 percent 
6th: 15.5 percent 
7th: 1.3 percent
The plus side of losing the tie-break scenario is that the default draft order is reversed for the second round, so the Hawks will get the #33 overall pick (the third pick of the second round) and the Mavericks will get the #34 pick. The Hawks also have the rights to a first-roundpick – #30 overall – that they acquired in a 2017 trade with Houston.
In a separate tiebreaker between the Minnesota Timberwolves and the San Antonio Spurs, the Spurs won, earning them the #18 pick in the Draft. The #19 pick will convey from Minnesota to the Hawks as a result of a 2015 trade that sent Adreian Payne to the Timberwolves. If any Hawks fans are disappointed about getting the #19 pick, here's one important fact to keep in mind: the Hawks also had the #19 draft pick in the 2017 Draft and they used it to select John Collins. 
In a deep 2018 Draft, it is quite likely that the Hawks find another gem or two (or three) with the #19, #30 and #33 picks.