It’s been nearly a decade since either the Portland Trail Blazers or their fans had cause to pay much attention to the Draft Lottery. Having made the playoffs in eight-straight seasons before an unceremonious end to the 2021-22 campaign, there just hasn’t been much motivation other than general curiosity to keep close tabs on the NBA’s version of playing the numbers.
In fact, the Trail Blazers have only had their hopes and dreams defined by numbered balls in a hopper seven times since the first iteration of the Draft Lottery back in 1985, which makes sense considering they’ve only missed the postseason 15 times in franchise history. And since seven of those playoff-less seasons occurred before the Draft Lottery was instituted in 1985, the franchise has mostly been an observer rather than a participant.
So without much experience in the lottery, either recently or historically, it’s probably worth a quick refresher on some of the basics of the Draft Lottery as it pertains to the Trail Blazers, who have the sixth-best chance of taking home the top pick, prior to Tuesday’s draw. It’s not all that difficult to grasp -- it’s basically a raffle -- but there are a few small quirks here and there worth knowing about if you’re going to watch the results show, so a few things to consider...
First, the basics. The 2022 NBA Draft Lottery will be held at 5 p.m. on Tuesday, May 17 in Chicago, which is also the site of this week’s NBA Draft Combine. It will broadcast on ESPN.
Now, some history. As previously noted, the Trail Blazers have participated in the Draft Lottery seven times -- 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2012 and 2013 -- and have come away with the first, third, fourth, 10th, 11th and 13th (twice) picks. They have outperformed their odds twice, the first in 2005 when they got the third overall pick while having the fourth-best odds and when they won the Lottery in 2007 despite having the sixth-best odds, the same situation the Trail Blazers are in this year. A beloved All-Star guard, Brandon Roy, represented the Trail Blazers when they won back in 2007, so sending another All-Star guard this year with roughly the same odds seems like a wise decision.
Portland has underperformed their Lottery odds only once, back in 2006, when they had the best odds yet ended up with the third overall pick (though coming away from that Draft with both LaMarcus Aldridge and Brandon Roy was a lot better than getting the top pick). And in four years -- 2004, 2008, 2012 and 2013 -- the Blazers came away from the Lottery with the exact pick their odds predicted.
As for the broader Draft Lottery history, since 1990 (the system has changed multiple times over the year, most recently in 2019 when it was expanded from three to four teams), the team with the best odds has won the lottery seven times. The second-best odds have won five times, the third-best seven times (the same as the top odds) while the team with the fourth-best odds has never won the top pick. Fifth-best odds has won five times while the sixth-best -- the situation Portland is in this year -- has taken the top pick twice. Same goes for the seventh and ninth-best odds, while teams with the eighth and 11th worst odds have both won just once. Teams with the 12th, 13th and 14th best odds have never won the Lottery.
And about those odds. You probably have Portland’s Lottery odds committed to memory at this point, but for posterity, the Trail Blazers chances are as follows...
1st: 9.0 percent
2nd: 9.2 percent
3rd: 9.4 percent
4th: 9.6 percent
5th: 0
6th: 8.6 percent
7th: 29.8 percent
8th: 20.5 percent
9th: 3.7 percent
10th: 0.1 percent
11th/12th/13th/14th: 0
To digest, Portland has nearly the same odds for the first, second, third, fourth and sixth picks. They have a 37.2 percent chance of coming away from the Lottery with a Top 4 pick and on the other end, they have just over a 54 percent chance of coming away with seven/eight/nine/ten. And since the Draft Lottery technically only applies to the Top 4 picks, the Trail Blazers CANNOT get the fifth, 11th, 12th, 13th and/or 14th picks. So if you get in front of a TV a little late, you likely won’t have missed anything Blazers-related.
So if you don’t hear the Trail Blazers called by the sixth pick, you’ll know they have won one of the Top 4 picks. If a team, or even multiple teams, with better odds to win the Lottery has their number pulled before Portland, that’s a good thing. But if one of the teams with long odds isn’t called early, that’s not as good for Portland’s chances.