At first glance, it doesn't look like much has changed since we last looked in on the Western Conference playoff race five days ago, and in some respects, that's true. Other than the Spurs jumping up into a tie for fifth, the order is still the same as it was prior to the Trail Blazers' road back-to-back last weekend.
But some of the variables that can end up defining the first-round playoff matches have started to lock in as we inch toward the end of the regular season. The Pelicans, Grizzlies and Mavericks have all joined the Suns in being eliminated from playoff contention while the Warriors and Nuggets are both assured of making the postseason. Meanwhile, the Rockets are another game or two away from securing their ticket to the playoffs, while the Lakers and Timberwolves are close to joining the ranks of the mathematically eliminated.
As for the last week as it pertains to the Trail Blazers, Portland locked up the tiebreaker with the Clippers by winning the season series, though they are now almost certain to lose the tiebreaker to the Spurs, which is more likely to come into play, after their loss in San Antonio on Saturday tied the season series at 2-2. Assuming neither team wins their division, which is the most likely outcome at this point, the tiebreaker goes to conference record, which the Spurs lead handily.
Luckily for Portland, they're likely to be favored in their next eight games, so if they're able to continue their strong play of the last month, no small task with CJ McCollum sidelined with a left knee muscle strain, those tiebreakers might never come into play.
Also, if I'm not mistaken, the Trail Blazers magic number is currently any combination of wins or Kings losses equalling four. With 12 games to play, here's where the Trail Blazers stand in the Western Conference playoff race...
GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS, 1ST IN THE WESTERN CONFERENCE (CLINCHED PLAYOFF BERTH)
Overall record: 48-22 | Conference record: 30-14 | Division record: 11-3Home record: 24-10 | Away record: 24-12 | Games back: 0
Remaining home games: 7 (3/21 vs. Pacers, 3/23 vs. Mavericks, 3/24 vs. Pistons, 3/31 vs. Hornets, 4/2 vs. Nuggets, 4/5 vs. Cavaliers, 4/7 vs. Clippers)Remaining road games: 5 (3/27 @ Grizzlies, 3/29 @ Timberwolves, 4/4 @ Lakers, 4/9 @ Hornets, 4/10 @ Grizzlies)
Remaining games versus teams over .500: 4 (4 home, 0 away) Remaining games versus teams under .500: 8 (3 home, 5 away)
Tiebreaker: The Trail Blazers and Warriors split their season series 2-2, so the tiebreaker then moves to division winner. The Warriors currently lead the Pacific Division by 7 games, while the Trail Blazers are 3.5 games behind the Nuggets for the Northwest Division title. In the event that neither team wins their division, the tiebreaker then moves on to conference record. The Warriors are currently 30-14 in the Western Conference while the Trail Blazers are 23-22.
DENVER NUGGETS, 2ND IN THE WESTERN CONFERENCE (CLINCHED PLAYOFF BERTH)
Overall record: 47-22 | Conference record: 30-14 | Division record: 9-2Home record: 30-6 | Away record: 17-16 | Games back: 0.5
Remaining home games: 5 (3/26 vs. Pistons, 3/31 vs. Wizards, 4/3 vs. Spurs, 4/5 vs. Trail Blazers, 4/10 vs. Timberwolves)Remaining road games: 8 (3/21 @ Wizards, 3/22 @ Knicks, 3/24 @ Pacers, 3/28 @ Rockets, 3/29 @ Thunder, 4/2 @ Warriors, 4/7 @ Trail Blazers, 4/9 @ Jazz)
Remaining games versus teams over .500: 9 (3 home, 6 away) Remaining games versus teams over .500: 4 (2 home, 2 away)
Tiebreaker: The Nuggets have won the first two games of the season series versus the Trail Blazers with two games left to play (in Denver on April 5 and then two days later in Portland on April 7).
HOUSTON ROCKETS, 3RD IN THE WESTERN CONFERENCE
Overall record: 45-26 | Conference record: 25-18 | Division record: 8-5Home record: 26-10 | Away record: 19-16 | Games back: 3.5
Remaining home games: 5 (3/22 vs. Spurs, 3/28 vs. Nuggets, 3/30 vs. Kings, 4/5 vs. Knicks, 4/7 vs. Suns)Remaining road games: 6 (3/20 @ Grizzlies, 3/24 @ Pelicans, 3/26 @ Bucks, 4/2 @ Kings, 4/3 @ Clippers, 4/9 @ Thunder)
Remaining games versus teams over .500: 5 (2 home, 3 away) Remaining games versus teams under .500: 6 (3 home, 3 away)
Tiebreaker: The Trail Blazers own the tiebreaker versus the Rockets by virtue of winning the season series 2-1.
PORTLAND TRAIL BLAZERS, 4TH IN THE WESTERN CONFERENCE
Overall record: 43-27 | Conference record: 23-22 | Division record: 4-9Home record: 26-9 | Away record: 17-18 | Games back: 5
Remaining home games: 7 (3/20 vs. Mavericks, 3/23 vs. Pistons, 3/25 vs. Nets, 4/3 vs. Grizzlies, 4/7 vs. Nuggets, 4/10 vs. Kings.)Remaining road games: 8 (3/27 @ Bulls, 3/29 @ Hawks, 3/30 @ Pistons, 4/1 @ Timberwolves, 4/5 @ Nuggets, 4/9 @ Lakers)
Remaining games versus teams over .500: 5 (3 home, 2 away) Remaining games versus teams under .500: 7 (3 home, 4 away)
SAN ANTONIO SPURS, TIED FOR 5TH IN THE WESTERN CONFERENCE
Overall record: 42-29 | Conference record: 29-19 | Division record: 9-5Home record: 29-7 | Away record: 13-22 | Games back: 6.5
Remaining home games: 5 (3/20 vs. Heat, 3/28 vs. Cavaliers, 3/31 vs. Kings, 4/2 vs. Hawks, 4/10 vs. Mavericks)Remaining road games: 6 (3/22 @ Rockets, 3/24 @ Celtics, 3/26 @ Hornets, 4/3 @ Nuggets, 4/5 @ Wizards, 4/7 @ Cavaliers)
Remaining games versus teams under .500: 3 (0 home, 3 away) Remaining games versus teams over .500: 8 (6 home, 3 away)
Tiebreaker: The Trail Blazers and Spurs tied their season series 2-2, which means the tiebreaker then moves to division winner. The Trail Blazers are currently second in the Northwest Division, trailing the Denver Nuggets by 4.5 games. The Spurs are also second in the Southwest Division, trailing the Houston Rockets by three games. If neither teams wins their division, the tiebreaker then moves to conference record. The Blazers are currently 23-22 in the West while the Spurs are 29-19.
OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER, TIED FOR 5TH IN THE WESTERN CONFERENCE
Overall record: 42-29 | Conference record: 25-21 | Division record: 8-6Home record: 23-11 | Away record: 19-18 | Games back: 6.5
Remaining home games: 7 (3/20 vs. Raptors, 3/27 vs. Pacers, 3/29 vs. Nuggets, 3/31 vs. Mavericks, 4/2 vs. Lakers, 4/5 vs. Pistons, 4/9 vs. Rockets)Remaining road games: 4 (3/22 @ Raptors, 3/25 @ Grizzlies, 4/7 @ Timberwolves, 4/10 @ Bucks)
Remaining games versus teams over .500: 7 (5 home, 2 away) Remaining games versus teams under .500: 4 (2 home, 2 away)
Tiebreaker: The Thunder own the tiebreaker versus the Trail Blazers by virtue of sweeping the season series 4-0.
UTAH JAZZ, 7TH IN THE WESTERN CONFERENCE
Overall record: 41-29 | Conference record: 25-20 | Division record: 7-8Home record: 23-12 | Away record: 18-17 | Games back: 7
Remaining home games: 6 (3/25 vs. Suns, 3/27 vs. Lakers, 3/29 vs. Wizards, 4/1 vs. Hornets, 4/5 vs. Kings, 4/9 vs. Nuggets)Remaining road games: 6 (3/20 @ Knicks, 3/21 @ Hawks, 3/23 @ Bulls, 4/3 @ Suns, 4/7 @ Lakers, 4/10 @ Clippers)
Remaining games versus teams over .500: 2 (1 home, 1 away) Remaining games versus teams under .500: 10 (5 home, 5 away)
Tiebreaker: The Trail Blazers and Jazz split their season series 2-2, with the next tiebreaker being division winner. If neither team wins the Northwest Division, the next tiebreaker is winning percentage against division teams. The Jazz (7-8) currently have a better winning percentage in the Northwest Division than the Trail Blazers (4-9).
L.A. CLIPPERS, 8TH IN THE WESTERN CONFERENCE
Overall record: 42-30 | Conference record: 25-21 | Division record: 11-3Home record: 23-13 | Away record: 19-17 | Games back: 7
Remaining home games: 5 (3/30 vs. Cavaliers, 3/31 vs. Grizzlies, 4.3 vs. Rockets, 4/5 vs. Lakers, 4/10 vs. Jazz)Remaining road games: 5 (3/22 @ Cavaliers, 3/24 @ Knicks, 3/26 @ Timberwolves, 3/28 @ Bucks, 4/7 @ Warriors)
Remaining games versus teams over .500: 4 (2 home, 2 away) Remaining games versus teams under .500: 6 (3 home, 3 away)
Tiebreaker: The Trail Blazers own the tiebreaker versus the Clippers by virtue of winning the season series 3-1.
SACRAMENTO KINGS, 9TH IN THE WESTERN CONFERENCE
Overall record: 34-36 | Conference record: 17-24 | Division record: 3-11Home record: 21-15 | Away record: 13-21 | Games back: 14
Remaining home games: 5 (3/21 Mavericks, 3/23 Suns, 4/2 Rockets, 4/4 Cavaliers, 4/7 Pelicans)Remaining road games: 7 (3/24 @ Lakers, 3/26 @ Mavericks, 3/28 @ Pelicans, 3/30 @ Rockets, 3/31 @ Spurs, 4/5 @ Jazz, 4/10 @ Trail Blazers)
Remaining games versus teams over .500: 5 (1 home, 4 away) Remaining games versus teams under .500: 7 (4 home, 3 away)
Tiebreaker: The season series between the Trail Blazers and Kings is tied at 1-1 with one game left to play in Portland on April 10.
MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES, 10TH IN THE WESTERN CONFERENCE
Overall record: 32-39 | Conference record: 19-26 | Division record: 5-8Home record: 23-11 | Away record: 9-28 | Games back: 16.5
Remaining home games: 7 (3/26 vs. Clippers, 3/29 vs. Warriors, 3/30 vs. 76ers, 4/1 vs. Trail Blazers, 4/5 vs. Heat, 4/7 vs. Thunder, 4/9 vs. Raptors)Remaining road games: 4 (3/21 @ Hornets, 3/23 @ Grizzlies, 4/3 @ Mavericks, 4/10 @ Nuggets)
Remaining games versus teams over .500: 7 (6 home, 1 away) Remaining games versus teams under .500: 4 (1 home, 3 away)
Tiebreaker: The Trail Blazers lead the season series versus the Timberwolves 2-1 with one game left to play in Minneapolis on April 1.
LOS ANGELES LAKERS, 11TH IN THE WESTERN CONFERENCE
Overall record: 31-40 | Conference record: 21-23 | Division record: 7-6Home record: 18-16 | Away record: 13-24 | Games back: 17.5
Remaining home games: 7 (3/22 vs. Nets, 3/24 vs. Kings, 3/26 vs. Wizards, 3/29 vs. Hornets, 4/4 vs. Warriors, 4/7 vs. Jazz, 4/9 vs. Trail Blazers)Remaining road games: 4 (3/27 @ Jazz, 3/31 @ Pelicans, 4/2 @ Thunder, 4/5 @ Clippers)
Remaining games versus teams over .500: 7 (4 home, 3 away) Remaining games versus teams under .500: 4 (3 home, 1 away)
Tiebreaker: The Lakers currently lead the season series versus the Trail Blazers 2-1 with one game to play in Los Angeles on April 9.