Two-time Kia MVP Nikola Jokic is rolling once again. We review the film, numbers and impact.
This article is part of a five-part series called “What We’ve Seen,” which examines the top candidates on the Kia Rookie Ladder and Kia MVP Ladder.
- What we’ve seen from Chet Holmgren
- What we’ve seen from Victor Wembanyama
- What we’ve seen from Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
- What we’ve seen from Luka Doncic
There have been many elements to Nikola Jokic’s Kia MVP candidacy over the last few seasons, and they’re all there again this season.
If box score numbers are your thing, Jokic is putting up some that we haven’t seen in more than 60 years. He’s once again one of the most efficient scorers in the league. His value is clear from how much better the Denver Nuggets are when he’s on the floor. And when you watch the defending champs, it doesn’t take long to realize that he’s the centerpiece of everything they do.
He’s also been incredibly durable, missing just three games for the team at the top of the Western Conference standings.
Here are some notes, numbers and film on what we’ve seen from Jokic thus far …
All stats are through Tuesday, March 26.
1. Superlatives
A few things we’ll remember from Jokic’s ninth season:
Most impressive game: Jokic poured in a game-high 35 points to go with 17 rebounds, 12 assists, six steals and two blocks in a March 11 win over the Toronto Raptors for one of the best stat lines the league has seen.
Most impressive milestone: In a February win against the Wizards, Jokic joined LeBron James and Russell Westbrook as the only players in NBA history to tally a triple-double against every team they’ve faced. He shot 10-of-10 that game, logging his fourth triple-double with perfect shooting from the field. That’s an NBA record.
Most impressive play: Jokic banked in a 39-foot game-winner at the buzzer to propel a 130-127 win over the Golden State Warriors. With the game knotted at 127 points and 3.6 seconds remaining, Aaron Gordon hit Jokic on the inbound pass and the Serbian star took three dribbles before launching a rainbow 3 over Kevon Looney.
JOKIC WINS IT ‼️
JOKER WINS THE GAME WITH THE #TissotBuzzerBeater FROM 39 FEET AWAY 😱🤯#YourTimeDefinesYourGreatness pic.twitter.com/ykPdygIQ03
— NBA (@NBA) January 5, 2024
— Michael C. Wright
2. Stats that tell the story
Go beyond Jokic’s regular season averages — 26.1 points, 12.3 rebounds and nine assists — to understand how good he’s been this season:
- Jokic is set to become just the second player to average at least 25 points, 12 rebounds and eight assists per game, joining Oscar Robertson (30.8, 12.5 and 11.4) in 1961-62. Robertson averaged 44.3 minutes that season, while Jokic has averaged just 34.4. This would be the third time a player has averaged at least 25, 12 and eight per 36 minutes, with the prior two instances being Jokic in 2021-22 and Jokic in 2022-23.
- Jokic leads the league in both touches per game (100.2) and frontcourt touches per game (55.2) for the sixth straight season. He also leads the league in elbow touches per game (11.1) for the fourth straight season and in post-ups per game (7.8) for the third straight season.
- The Nuggets have been 19.7 points per 100 possessions better with Jokic on the floor (plus-11.3) than they’ve been with him off it (minus-8.4). That’s the biggest differential among players who’ve played at least 1,000 minutes for a single team, and it would be the second biggest in the last eight seasons, topped only by Jokic’s differential of 22.9 per 100 last season.
- That differential is mostly about offense, but the Nuggets have also grabbed 74.4% of available defensive rebounds (a rate that would be tied for the league lead) with Jokic on the floor, compared to just 65.8% (a rate that would rank last) with him off it.
- His true shooting percentage (65.0%) is down from last season (70.1%) but is still the second-highest mark among 16 players who averaged at least 25 points per game.
3. Film room famous
Jokic doesn’t just put up big numbers with great efficiency. He’s arguably the most entertaining player in the league to watch each night.
His post work: Jokic is a unique talent. He has the size to bully opponents in the post, but also has great footwork and an incredibly soft touch on his shot. If he gets decent position, he’s difficult to stop one-on-one.
With the Nuggets down three with less than five minutes left in Boston earlier this season, they went directly to Jokic in the post against Al Horford. Sending help didn’t work …
His vision: Defenses will send a double-team if a player is a tough one-on-one cover, but in addition to being huge with a soft touch, Jokic also has incredible vision.
He can see the double team coming and quickly find the open teammate.
And because he’s so big, he can make whatever pass needs to be made …
His multiple moves and quick reactions: With the Celtics and Nuggets playing another close game in March, Denver again went to Jokic in the post, where he bullied Kristaps Porzingis and spun back to a jump hook for a key basket with a little more than a minute left.
Two possessions later, Boston denied a handoff to Jamal Murray, so Jokic had to get to work from the top of the arc. A couple of spin moves got him into position to score when two more defenders came to challenge his shot.
With one of those defenders having come from the baseline, Jokic knew that Aaron Gordon had position under the basket, and he lofted a perfect alley-oop pass that still kind of looked like a shot …
His ability to handle: One great thing about having a big like Jokic is that you don’t have to work to get him the ball. He can bring it up himself.
According to Second Spectrum, the Nuggets have set 383 ball screens (5.6 per game) for Jokic. Some of those give him an angle to back down into the post. But he can also play pick-and-roll like a guard …
His defensive presence: Jokic’s value is most felt on offense, and he won’t get any All-Defensive Team consideration. But he’s far from a defensive liability.
For one, he’s huge, so he takes up space. Secondly, he’s smart, knows where to be and takes good angles to get there. He’s also got active hands (and feet). He’s not going to beat ball-handlers to a spot, but he can stay with them well enough to use his length and block or contest a shot.
Jokic will play different kinds of pick-and-roll coverage depending on the ball-handler, but he’s up at the level of the screen more than most bigs. That puts pressure on the Nuggets’ weak side and Jokic must scramble back when the ball moves.
Here, he’s at the level to prevent a pull-up jumper, shows high hands to prevent a pass to the roll man, recovers back to the paint and blocks a shot …
4. Closing Kia MVP case
The final standings could impact how some voters place Jokic and the Oklahoma City Thunder’s Shai Gilgeous-Alexander on their ballot. Through Tuesday, the Nuggets have a half-game lead on the Thunder for first place in the Western Conference, though the Thunder have the head-to-head tiebreaker.
The Nuggets have the easier remaining schedule regarding cumulative opponent winning percentage, but they have as many remaining games against teams with winning records (six) as the Thunder do. That includes two big matchups with the third-place Minnesota Timberwolves, with the first of those this weekend.
First, the defending champs will have a showcase matchup on Wednesday (10 ET, ESPN) with the Phoenix Suns, a potential first-round opponent.
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John Schuhmann is a senior stats analyst for NBA.com. You can e-mail him here, find his archive here and follow him on X.
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