Record: 23-6

OffRtg: 120.6 (3) DefRtg: 110.5 (5) NetRtg: +10.1 (2) Pace: 98.4 (23)

The Celtics blew an 11-point, fourth-quarter lead in San Francisco on Tuesday, but went 3-1 on their California Christmas tour, scoring at a ridiculous rate.

Three takeaways

• Their wins over the Kings and Clippers last week were two of the four most efficient scoring performances for any team this season, with their 144 points on only 95 possessions (151.6 per 100) in Sacramento being the sixth most efficient performance for any team in the 28 seasons for which we have play-by-play data.

• The five-game homestand that preceded the trip was the Celtics’ best five-game stretch of offense (124.4 points scored per 100 possessions) since the first five games of the season (124.7), and they blew those numbers out of the water on the trip, scoring 135.6 per 100 over the four games. And that efficiency wasn’t just about great shooting; They committed just 35 turnovers (8.8 per 100 possessions) on the trip and grabbed more than a third of available offensive rebounds in three of the four games.

• The loss to the Warriors, in which the Celtics scored just five points on 11 overtime possessions, dropped them to 2-6 when they’ve made less than a third of their 3-point attempts. But they made that 3-6 when they outscored the Lakers (third in paint differential) in the paint and at the free-throw line on Christmas.

The league’s best and worst teams will meet for the first time on Thursday, with the Celtics having won their last six games against the Pistons. Jayson Tatum averaged 36.5 points over their four meetings last season.

Dec. 26 – Jan. 1: vs. DET, vs. TOR, @ SAS

Record: 22-6

OffRtg: 114.0 (17) DefRtg: 107.4 (1) NetRtg: +6.6 (4) Pace: 99.1 (18)

The Wolves are four games into a stretch of 13 straight against teams that currently have winning records. They’re 3-1 thus far, and remain the only team that hasn’t lost two straight.

Three takeaways

• The Wolves were down 17 points in the second quarter in Miami last Monday, but held the Heat to just 17 points on 22 possessions in the third and came back to register their seventh win (they’re 7-6) in games they trailed by double-digits. For the season, they’ve allowed 9.2 fewer points per 100 possessions in the second halves of games (102.8) than they have before halftime (112.0).

• They were without Karl-Anthony Towns (who injured his left knee two nights earlier) in Sacramento on Saturday. Still, Anthony Edwards registered his third-highest usage rate of the season and accounted for 56 (51%) of the team’s 110 points via his scoring (34) or assists (10).

• The Wolves still scored less efficiently than the league average for the 14th time in 28 games. But they held the Kings to just 98 points on 96 possessions, the 21st time they’ve held their opponent under the league average. They had a top-10 defense last season but still rank as the league’s second-most-improved team on that end of the floor, having allowed 5.7 fewer points per 100 possessions.

This string of games against good teams continues in Oklahoma City on Tuesday, with Towns listed as questionable. The first meeting between the Wolves and Thunder was one of Minnesota’s nine wins in a game in which it scored less efficiently than the league average.

Dec. 26 – Jan. 1: @ OKC, vs. DAL, vs. LAL, @ NYK

Record: 22-10

OffRtg: 117.9 (8) DefRtg: 112.5 (7) NetRtg: +5.3 (5) Pace: 97.8 (29)

The league’s longest active winning streak belongs to the Nuggets, who’ve won five straight games to climb into second place in the West.

Three takeaways

• The first win on the winning streak was a 26-point victory over the Mavs, but the last four have all been within five points in the last five minutes. The champs have scored 44 points on 27 clutch possessions over that stretch, with Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray combining to shoot 10-for-12 on clutch shots.

• Peyton Watson isn’t just Jokic’s co-star in a new set of commercials. He’s also been on the floor (instead of Michael Porter Jr.) for key defensive possessions down the stretch of close games. He fouled Cam Thomas on a 3-pointer in the final minute in Brooklyn on Friday but did have a big dunk on the previous possession. His offense will remain critical, but opponents have shot just 41.2% when Watson has been the nearest defender, with the difference between that and their expected field goal percentage on those shots (46.9%) being the 12th biggest among 207 players who’ve defended at least 200 shots.

• Does anybody like to duck in more than Aaron Gordon? The Nuggets will script some duck-ins for him, but he’s also great at establishing position under the basket in transition and sealing against a rotating defender, and it certainly helps to have a seven-foot-tall teammate who’s the best passer in the league. Gordon will get fouled on those plays, but he’s shot 30-for-39 (77%) from the line over his last nine games, up from 27-for-55 (49%) before that.

Their Christmas Day win over the Warriors began a stretch where the Nuggets are playing eight of 10 at home, but they’ll be at a rest disadvantage against Oklahoma City on Friday. The Thunder handed them one of their two home losses on Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s last-second jumper over Watson 10 days ago.

Dec. 26 – Jan. 1: vs. MEM, vs. OKC, vs. CHA

Record: 18-9

OffRtg: 118.1 (6) DefRtg: 110.9 (6) NetRtg: +7.2 (3) Pace: 101.6 (6)

For the second straight week, the Thunder had two games against other Western Conference teams with winning records. And for the second straight week, they split the two, getting a rest-advantage win over the Clippers (without Kawhi Leonard) on Thursday, but losing to the Lakers two nights later.

Three takeaways

• The Thunder will give up some 3-pointers, with 43% of their opponents’ shots — the league’s third-highest opponent rate — coming from beyond the arc. The Lakers rank 28th in made 3-pointers per game, but they were 16-for-32 from deep on Saturday, dropping Oklahoma City to 1-6 in games in which its opponent shot 40% or better from 3-point range, with the only win having come against the Pistons in October. Only four teams have worse records when their opponent has shot 40% or better.

• The Thunder themselves have shot just 33.7% (25th in the league) from 3-point range over the last three weeks, down from 40.2% (first) before that, with Isaiah Joe (11-for-39) and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (4-for-25) seeing big drops. They’ve still scored more efficiently over their last eight games than they did prior.

• The starting lineup has outscored their opponents by just 4.8 points per 100 possessions, which ranks 12th among the 14 lineups that have played at least 200 minutes. No other Thunder lineup has played more than 32 total minutes. Yet, thanks to a lot of mixing and matching, they’re 18-9 and one of four teams that rank in the top 10 on both ends of the floor.

The third-place Thunder will face the first-place Wolves and second-place Nuggets this week. They’re 1-2 against those two teams thus far, with the last two games (a loss in Minnesota and a win in Denver) having come down to Gilgeous-Alexander shots (a missed 3 and a game-winning turnaround) in the final seconds.

Dec. 26 – Jan. 1: vs. MIN, vs. NYK, @ DEN, vs. BKN

Record: 20-9

OffRtg: 121.2 (2) DefRtg: 110.3 (3) NetRtg: +10.9 (1) Pace: 100.4 (12)

After they won six straight games (by an average of 27.3 points) against four of the bottom five teams in the East, the Sixers’ schedule got a little tougher. And they’ve lost two of their four games over the last eight days, one with Joel Embiid and one without him.

Three takeaways

• Before last Monday, the Sixers were 17-0 (and the only undefeated team) in games they led by at least 10 points. Now, they’re 19-2, and they lost early, double-digit leads in three of their last four games. They recovered against the Wolves (with a big run spanning the third and fourth quarters), but couldn’t finish against Chicago or Miami.

• While bench minutes were good against Minnesota, they were largely to blame for the two losses. The Sixers’ healthy starting lineup (with Nicolas Batum) was a plus-19 in its 16.1 minutes in their four-point loss to Chicago last Monday, and their makeshift lineup (with Kelly Oubre Jr. and Paul Reed in place of Batum and Embiid) was a plus-20 in 15.1 minutes in their six-point loss in Miami on Christmas.

• With Embiid leading the way with a season-high 51 points, the Sixers’ win over Minnesota on Wednesday was the most efficient offensive game (127 points on 101 possessions) the league’s No. 1 defense has allowed in more than a month. Only 12 of those 51 points came in the paint, but Embiid was an amazing 11-for-14 from mid-range and 17-for-18 from the free-throw line. His 74-for-146 (51%) from mid-range ranks third among the 29 players with at least 75 attempts

The Sixers haven’t had a rest-advantage game since Week 1, but they’ll have an advantage in Orlando on Wednesday (Embiid’s status is unknown at this point), with the Magic playing in Washington the night before. They’ve won 11 of their last 12 games against the Magic, including five straight at what is now called the Kia Center.

Dec. 26 – Jan. 1: @ ORL, @ HOU, @ CHI

Record: 22-8

OffRtg: 120.5 (4) DefRtg: 115.4 (20) NetRtg: +5.1 (6) Pace: 102.6 (4)

The Bucks still have the league’s third-best record, and their winning streak (which reached seven games) wasn’t going to last forever. Maybe we just chalk their loss in New York up to it being a noon start on Christmas Day. But maybe it was a reminder that they’ve taken a big step backward defensively.

Three takeaways

• Over the last three games of their winning streak, the Bucks allowed just 108.9 points per 100 possessions, their best stretch of defense in more than a month. But then they allowed the Knicks to score 129 on 100 on Christmas Day, and that certainly wasn’t about New York getting hot from 3-point range. They couldn’t stop Jalen Brunson and Co. from getting downhill, allowing the Knicks to score 72 points in the paint, 10 more than their previous season high, but only the third most the Bucks have allowed.

• The defensive issues start in transition, with only the Mavs having seen a bigger jump in transition points allowed per game. The Bucks had outscored their opponents by 31 fast break points (67-36) over their previous three games but were a minus 11 (12-23) on Monday.

• The offense remains elite, especially with Khris Middleton now playing 30 minutes a night. The 32-year-old was doing some bad things to the Knicks in isolation on Saturday afternoon, and the Bucks have scored 128.1 points per 100 possessions in 345 total minutes with Middleton, Giannis Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard on the floor together.

The Bucks have still played the league’s most home-heavy schedule, with 18 of their 30 games having come at Fiserv Forum. They’ll remain in New York for their second meeting of the season with the Nets, having won a close game in Brooklyn in early November. Their first two games of 2024 will be their fourth and fifth meetings with the Pacers, with Indiana having won two of the first three.

Dec. 26 – Jan. 1: @ BKN, @ CLE, vs. IND

Record: 17-12

OffRtg: 117.5 (9) DefRtg: 113.7 (12) NetRtg: +3.8 (7) Pace: 98.8 (21)

The Clippers took their winning streak to nine games, but the streak came to an end and their last two games (at Oklahoma City, vs. Boston) were their two worst losses of the season.

Three takeaways

• The two losses were the first two games the Clippers played without Kawhi Leonard, who averaged 29.3 points on ridiculous shooting (effective field goal percentage of 69%) over the winning streak. But, he suffered a hip contusion late in their win over the Mavs on Wednesday. So the Clippers have still won their last nine games that he’s played and they’ve now been 18.8 points per 100 possessions better with him on the floor (plus 10.0) than they’ve been with him off the floor (minus 8.8).

• Even though Leonard is a starter (and mostly defending against other starters), that on-off differential has been much bigger (12.9 points per 100 possessions) on defense. The two losses without him were two of the Clippers’ three worst defensive games of the season, with the Thunder and Celtics both shooting better than 47% from 3-point range

• Even with the two losses by a total of 56 points, the sixth-place Clippers have the point differential (fourth best in the West) of a team that’s 19-10. They’re 7-8 in games that were within five points in the last five minutes and 10-4 otherwise.

Having played five straight games against teams that rank in the top 10 offensively, the Clippers will now play two against teams that rank in the bottom five. The 29th-ranked Grizzlies are much improved with Ja Morant now in uniform, but the Clippers will have a rest advantage on Friday. Their last two rest-advantage games (Nov. 29 at Sacramento and Dec. 16 vs. New York) have been two of the four times they’ve scored more than 130 points per 100 possessions.

Dec. 26 – Jan. 1: vs. CHA, vs. MEM, vs. MIA

Record: 17-11

OffRtg: 116.0 (12) DefRtg: 115.8 (21) NetRtg: +0.2 (18) Pace: 100.6 (10)

The Kings went 4-2 on their six-game homestand, with the two losses coming against the two best teams in the league. They’ll now hit the road, but their schedule is getting easier regarding the strength of the opponents.

Three takeaways

• With their loss to the Wolves on Saturday, the Kings are 0-4 in the second games of back-to-backs, having scored just 102.3 points per 100 possessions over those four games. The only other teams without a win on the back end of a back-to-back are the Hornets, Spurs and Wizards.

• The Kings were the team with the rest advantage on Wednesday, but they allowed Boston to score 144 points on just 95 possessions, the sixth most efficient offensive game for any team in the 28 seasons for which we have play-by-play data. They dropped from 14th to 22nd in defensive efficiency in three days last week, though they’re still one of 11 teams that have allowed fewer points per 100 possessions than they did last season (116.0, 24th).

• They’re the team with De’Aaron Fox and they still rank fifth in transition differential (plus-4.6 points per game, according to Synergy tracking), but in their two losses last week, the Kings were outscored by 47 points (58-11) on fast breaks. Those were season-highs for both the Celtics (30 fast break points) and the Wolves (28).

Seven of the Kings’ next nine games are against teams that currently have losing records. They’ve played the fewest games (they’re 3-1) against the Eastern Conference and are the only team that hasn’t played in the Eastern time zone. Their first game there is in Atlanta on Friday, Game 2 of a three-game trip to close 2023.

Dec. 26 – Jan. 1: @ POR, @ ATL, @ MEM

Record: 18-12

OffRtg: 118.0 (7) DefRtg: 116.6 (23) NetRtg: +1.4 (13) Pace: 101.1 (8)

The Mavs have the worst record (5-9) in games played between the nine West teams that are currently over .500, having lost three big games last week. But they found their offense over the long weekend and kept the Suns from rejoining that over-.500 group, thanks in part to a special Christmas performance from Luka Doncic.

Three takeaways

• Doncic’s streak of 11 straight games with at least 30 points came to an end against the Clippers on Wednesday (when he scored 28). He missed a game in Houston two nights later and the Mavs had their first three-game losing streak of the season, having scored just 103.3 points per 100 possessions over the three games.

• But they got to play the Spurs on Saturday, when Doncic recorded a 39-point triple-double. And he saved another special performance for the holiday, recording the fourth-ever 50-point game on Christmas as the Mavs kept the Suns on the road to nowhere. His ability to make plays (and get fouled) when he gets in the paint remains the most important part of his game, but Doncic was also 8-for-16 from 3-point range on Monday, continuing to have the best 3-point shooting season of his career (38.7%).

• Dereck Lively II returned from a four-game absence on Christmas and recorded the second 20-and-10 game of his rookie season It was the seventh game that he started alongside Dante Exum and the Mavs have now outscored their opponents by more than 30 points per 100 possessions in 124 total minutes with Doncic, Exum and Lively on the floor together.

Their Christmas win in Phoenix was the middle game of the Mavs’ only stretch of five games in seven days, which concludes with a visit to Minnesota on Thursday. They shot just 7-for-32 (22%) from 3-point range in an 18-point loss (at home) to the Wolves less than two weeks ago.

Dec. 26 – Jan. 1: vs. CLE, @ MIN, @ GSW, @ UTA

Record: 18-12

OffRtg: 115.6 (14) DefRtg: 113.8 (13) NetRtg: +1.9 (12) Pace: 98.2 (26)

The Heat got Tyler Herro (18 games) and Bam Adebayo (seven games) back from long absences last week … but only had them together with Jimmy Butler for one night. Two guys are better than one, though, and the Heat won all three of their games without Butler (calf strain) last week, having gone 1-3 without him before that.

Three takeaways

• Herro has averaged 26.3 points on an effective field goal percentage of 58% over his four games back. The Heat’s wins over the Magic and Hawks last week were just the ninth and 10th times they’ve scored more than 120 points per 100 possessions.

• The Heat remain the league’s second-worst fourth-quarter team (minus-12.4 points per 100 possessions), and their loss to the Wolves last Monday (the only game they had Butler) gave them more losses in games they led after the third quarter (it dropped them to 13-6) than they had all of last season (26-5). They allowed Minnesota to score 35 points on just 23 fourth-quarter possessions and Butler took a pretty bad shot with plenty of time left on the clock and the Heat down three.

• But after losing six straight fourth quarters, the Heat have won the last two, and they needed them both. Duncan Robinson scored 21 fourth-quarter points as they held against the Hawks on Friday, and he had another seven as they recovered from blowing a 21-point lead to the Sixers on Christmas. His season-long effective field goal percentage of 74.1% in the fourth quarter is the best mark among 150 players with at least 50 fourth-quarter field goal attempts. Butler has the worst mark (35.7%), with Adebayo (41.8%) and Herro (42%) also in the bottom eight.

Having played 10 of their last 13 games at home, the Heat now head out on a five-game trip out West. They have the league’s second-ranked road defense (110 points allowed per 100 possessions) and have been 9-3 away from Biscayne Bay since Nov. 1.

Dec. 26 – Jan. 1: @ GSW, @ UTA, @ LAC

Record: 17-11

OffRtg: 113.4 (18) DefRtg: 110.5 (4) NetRtg: +3.0 (9) Pace: 99.8 (15)

The Magic went 0-4 in their string of games against the Celtics, Heat and Bucks, dropping to 3-5 in games played between the seven East teams that currently have winning records. But a win in Indiana knocked the Pacers out of that group and the Magic remain a top-four seed with a top-four defense.

Three takeaways

• The Magic shot just 17-for-69 (25%) from 3-point range over their losses to Miami and Milwaukee last week, the seventh and eighth times they’ve made fewer than 30% of their 3s. Only the Pistons have shot worse than the Magic (33.5%) from beyond the arc.

• They made just six 3-pointers (on only 18 attempts) in Indiana on Saturday but outscored the Pacers by 34 points inside the arc (66-56) and at the free-throw line (33-9). The Magic account for two of the nine times the league’s No. 1 offense has been held under 115 points per 100 possessions.

• Wendell Carter Jr. returned from a 20-game absence and was back in the starting lineup in all three games last week. But the Magic lost Jalen Suggs to a wrist injury and they were outscored by 40 points (32 per 100 possessions) in Carter’s 61 minutes.

The Magic are in the midst of a very road-heavy stretch of schedule (13 of 18 on the road), but they’ll be home for their first meetings of the season with two more top-seven teams in the East (Philadelphia and New York). They’ll be at a rest disadvantage when they host the Sixers on Wednesday, though they already have more wins in the second games of back-to-backs (2-3) than they did all of last season (1-12).

Dec. 26 – Jan. 1: @ WAS, vs. PHI, vs. NYK, @ PHX

Record: 17-12

OffRtg: 117.4 (10) DefRtg: 114.5 (14) NetRtg: +2.9 (10) Pace: 98.1 (27)

The Knicks had been low on quality wins, but they finished their West Coast trip by beating the Lakers. Plus, they were able to split their two afternoon games against Milwaukee, ending a nine-game losing streak to the Bucks with their win on Christmas.

Three takeaways

• The Knicks are one of five teams that rank in the bottom 10 regarding the percentage of their opponents’ shots that have come from 3-point range (41%, seventh highest) and the percentage of their opponents’ 3-point attempts that have come from the corners (30%, third highest). Through their first three meetings this season, the Bucks had shot an amazing 26-for-35 (74%) on corner 3s. On Christmas, they were just 2-for-9.

• The bigger difference between the three losses and the win on Monday was on the other end of the floor, where the Knicks scored 129 points on 100 possessions, their fourth most efficient performance of the season. They still rank 27th in field goal percentage in the paint (54.3%), but the Knicks were relentless in attacking the basket on Christmas, and their 72 points in the paint were 10 more than they’ve had in any other game this season. Five different Knicks had at least 10 points in the paint.

• All those paint points were critical because the Knicks were outscored from 3-point range (39-24) for the fifth straight game. Their three top guards — Jalen Brunson, Donte DiVincenzo and Immanuel Quickley — have shot 36-for-80 (45%) over that stretch, but everybody else is 15-for-73 (21%) from beyond the arc.

The Knicks are now 3-7 in games played between the seven East teams that currently have winning records, set to face the Magic for the first time on Friday. That’s the middle game of a pretty tough three-game trip. They’ll have a rest advantage in Oklahoma City on Wednesday but will be at a disadvantage in Indiana over the weekend.

Dec. 26 – Jan. 1: @ OKC, @ ORL, @ IND, vs. MIN

Record: 17-13

OffRtg: 115.4 (15) DefRtg: 112.7 (9) NetRtg: +2.7 (11) Pace: 100.4 (11)

The Pelicans had three rest-advantage games last week, and they went 1-2. They beat the shorthanded Cavs without Zion Williamson but blew a 24-point lead to the Grizzlies and came up empty down the stretch against the Rockets.

Three takeaways

• The Pelicans are 5-7 in games that were within five points in the last five minutes after shooting 0-for-6 on clutch 3s (CJ McCollum missed badly on two great looks for the lead on Tuesday) and committing five clutch turnovers against Memphis and Houston. They rank 28th in clutch offense (89 points on 97 possessions), having shot 3-for-17 (18%) from 3-point range and committed 21 turnovers (a league-worst rate).

• Their three most efficient games of the season have all come in the last two weeks (and on the road), with Trey Murphy III (who started in place of Williamson on Thursday) having made six 3s in two of the three. Since he made his season debut on Dec. 1, the Pelicans have been at their best (plus-16.8 points per 100 possessions) with Murphy on the floor.

• With that loss to Memphis, the Pelicans are one of three teams that have lost two games they led by at least 20 points. They’re also one of four teams that have won three games that they trailed by at least 15.

The Pelicans still have four games left on their five-game homestand, and this week provides three opportunities to avenge previous defeats. They just lost to Ja Morant and the Grizzlies (back in town exactly one week later), they’re 0-2 against the Jazz, and they lost by 44 the only time they’ve faced the Lakers.

Dec. 26 – Jan. 1: vs. MEM, vs. UTA, vs. LAL

Record: 17-13

OffRtg: 113.2 (19) DefRtg: 112.8 (10) NetRtg: +0.4 (17) Pace: 98.4 (24)

The Cavs haven’t just been without Darius Garland and Evan Mobley — Donovan Mitchell has also missed the last three games with an illness. But they’ve won two of the three to remain comfortably above .500.

Three takeaways

• Mobley has now been out for the last nine games and over that stretch, the Cavs have taken 47.3% of their shots (the league’s second-highest rate) from 3-point range, up from 36.6% (22nd) before that.

• The increase in 3-pointers seems to be working for them. The Cavs have won four of their last five games (two with Mitchell, three without him) and it’s been their best stretch of offense (124.3 points scored per 100 possessions) this season. They totaled 42 3-pointers in their wins over the Rockets and Jazz earlier last week, with Sam Merrill going 13-for-24 from beyond the arc. He scored a career-high 19 points against Houston and then had 27 two nights later.

• The Cavs have also grabbed 39.7% of available offensive rebounds and averaged 28 second-chance points over the four wins. Tristan Thompson has 15 offensive boards in just 83 total minutes over the last five games.

The Cavs are playing just two games over an eight-day stretch that began Sunday. They won’t have another back-to-back until Jan. 31 and Feb. 1, and after they play the Mavs and Bucks this week, they’ll have six straight games against teams that have losing records.

Dec. 26 – Jan. 1: @ DAL, vs. MIL, @ TOR

Record: 15-12

OffRtg: 113.0 (21) DefRtg: 109.5 (2) NetRtg: +3.5 (8) Pace: 97.8 (28)

The Rockets went 2-3 on their only stretch of five games in seven days, but the three losses came by a total of 21 points and they finished it with a pair of important wins over the Mavs (who were without Luka Doncic) and Pelicans.

Three takeaways

• Five of the Rockets’ last six games (all except their blowout of the Mavs) have been within five points in the last five minutes. For the season, they’re 6-9 in the clutch and 9-3 otherwise, with only the Sixers having a bigger such differential. Houston is 15-12 with the point differential (fifth in the West) of a team that’s 17-10.

• The bigger difference between the non-clutch Rockets and the clutch Rockets has been on defense, where they’ve allowed 118.8 points per 100 clutch possessions (24th). But they got five straight stops (with three turnovers) down the stretch in New Orleans on Saturday, turning a three-point deficit into a four-point lead.

• They closed that game with Jeff Green instead of Jalen Green, who’s shot just 31% over the last eight games. The Rockets’ starting lineup has been good (plus-10 points per 100 possessions) and the other four starters have played only 58 total minutes without Jalen Green, but they’ve outscored their opponents by 22 points (19.3 per 100 possessions) in those 58 minutes.

The Rockets’ second seven-game homestand of the season begins Tuesday and includes five games against Eastern Conference opponents. They’re 1-4 against the East thus far and they’ll be at a rest disadvantage for their most important game of the homestand (Wednesday vs. Phoenix).

Dec. 26 – Jan. 1: vs. IND, vs. PHX, vs. PHI, vs. DET

Record: 16-15

OffRtg: 112.4 (23) DefRtg: 113.0 (11) NetRtg: -0.7 (21) Pace: 100.8 (9)

With LeBron James scoring a season-high 40 points, the Lakers got a great win in Oklahoma City on Saturday. But they’re just 2-6 since the In-Season Tournament final, slipping from fifth to ninth place in the Western Conference.

Three takeaways

• After losing the four first quarters over their four-game losing streak by a total of 43 points (146-103), the Lakers made a lineup change, replacing D’Angelo Russell with Jared Vanderbilt for the last two games. The new lineup was a plus-1 in 10 minutes in Oklahoma City but had the Lakers in a 12-0 hole less than three minutes into their Christmas Day game against the Celtics, and scored just 42 points on 40 offensive possessions (105 per 100) over the two games.

• Vanderbilt has played just 160 minutes over 10 games since making his season debut at the beginning of the month. Among the 379 players who’ve played at least 100 minutes, only P.J. Tucker has a lower usage rate, and Vanderbilt is now 0-for-9 from 3-point range.

• Anthony Davis continues to make 3-pointers, though. Not to be outdone by James, he scored a season-high 40 points against Boston and is now 8-for-14 from beyond the arc and 17-for-32 (53%) from mid-range since the In-Season Tournament final, a needed development given the new lineup and the continued absence of Gabe Vincent, who will undergo arthroscopic surgery on his left knee this week.

The victory in Oklahoma City on Saturday was the Lakers’ first road win against one of the eight teams ahead of them in the Western Conference standings. They’re 5-8 (1-6 on the road) against that group, set to close 2023 with visits to Minnesota (where they lost without James five days ago) and New Orleans.

Dec. 26 – Jan. 1: vs. CHA, @ MIN, @ NOP

Record: 15-15

OffRtg: 115.7 (13) DefRtg: 114.6 (15) NetRtg: +1.0 (14) Pace: 100.1 (13)

We thought the drastic home/road splits were a thing of the past. But over the last five weeks, the Warriors are 8-0 at home and 1-7 on the road, with the road win having come by four points in Portland.

Three takeaways

• The Warriors’ meeting with the Celtics on Tuesday was their 14th straight clutch game and probably their best win of the season. They trailed by as many as 17 points and were down 13 after the third quarter before scoring 35 points on just 20 possessions in the fourth (the second most efficient fourth quarter for any team this season).

• One of the heroes that night was rookie Trayce Jackson-Davis, who had a double-double, blocked three shots and registered a plus-25 in less than 29 minutes. He was on the floor instead of Kevon Looney for all nine minutes of clutch time, has now been in the rotation for five straight games, and ranks third in rebounding percentage (14.3%) among 23 rookies who’ve averaged at least 10 minutes.

• Bench minutes remained strong over the Warriors’ next three games. Their clutch-game streak ended with comfortable wins over the Wizards and Blazers, and they went down to the wire in Denver on Christmas even though they were outscored by 26 points in Stephen Curry’s 34 minutes. Curry and Chris Paul are responsible for six of the nine biggest on-off differentials of the last 15 seasons and (though Curry is the team’s most valuable player) Paul is winning the head-to-head battle this year.

Having won their last eight games at Chase Center, the Warriors now begin their longest homestand of the season (seven games over 14 days), though their first four opponents are all at least six games over .500.

Dec. 26 – Jan. 1: vs. MIA, vs. DAL

Record: 14-14

OffRtg: 121.9 (1) DefRtg: 121.2 (28) NetRtg: +0.7 (15) Pace: 103.8 (2)

The two teams that reached the In-Season Tournament final are both 2-6 since their trip to Las Vegas. The Pacers’ only two post-Tournament wins have come against the Pistons and Hornets, and they’ve fallen back to .500 for the first time since they were 3-3.

Three takeaways

• Only the Pistons have been worse defensively than the Pacers (124.9 points allowed per 100 possessions) over the 15 days since the Tournament finale. The Pacers rank last in both opponent effective field goal percentage and opponent free throw rate over that stretch. They rank last in free throw differential and their loss to the Magic on Saturday came with their worst differential (they were outscored by 24 points at the line) of the season.

• Only two of their eight games over those 15 days have come against teams that rank in the top 10 offensively, while four of them have come against teams that rank in the bottom 10. Their opponents continue to shoot well, but not often from 3-point range, and the Pacers now have a league-high seven losses (they’re 7-7) in which their opponent has made fewer than 10 3s. That doesn’t include the In-Season Tournament championship game in which the Lakers made just two.

• The Indiana offense hasn’t taken a huge step backward over the last couple of weeks, but ranks just 16th (117.8 points scored per 100 possessions) since Vegas, which isn’t nearly good enough given how bad the defense has been. Tyrese Haliburton has a turnover rate of 12.3 per 100 possessions used over the seven post-tournament games he’s played in, up from 6.6 per 100 through the tourney semis.

The Pacers begin their post-Christmas schedule with road games against two more bottom-10 offenses, those of the Rockets and Bulls. They lost an ugly game against Chicago back in October.

Dec. 26 – Jan. 1: @ HOU, @ CHI, vs. NYK, @ MIL

Record: 13-18

OffRtg: 112.2 (24) DefRtg: 114.9 (16) NetRtg: -2.7 (23) Pace: 96.6 (30)

The Bulls are now 8-4 without Zach LaVine, and they got two more quality wins after beating the Sixers and Lakers last week. Only the Celtics, Bucks and Sixers have better records in the Eastern Conference over the last 26 days.

Three takeaways

• The Bulls’ lineup with Ayo Dosunmu in LaVine’s place has outscored their opponents by 17.5 points per 100 possessions (with great defensive numbers) in 126 total minutes, but it got off to a rough start in Philly on Monday. Alex Caruso gave the Bulls good minutes off the bench as they came back from a 12-point deficit, and he was in the starting lineup (instead of Dosunmu) for the next three games.

• The Bulls have led the league in the percentage of their shots that have come from mid-range in each of DeMar DeRozan’s three seasons in Chicago, though that rate has dropped from 22% two seasons ago to 18% this season. They shot an amazing 26-for-38 (68%) from mid-range over their wins against the Lakers and Spurs last week, with DeRozan going 11-for-14 and Patrick Williams 5-for-5. DeRozan’s 39.5% from mid-range for the season is his worst mark in the last eight seasons.

• The Bulls were a solid 6-for-13 from mid-range against the Cavs (who were without three starters) on Saturday, but their three-game winning streak came to an end because they shot just 8-for-35 from 3-point range and allowed Cleveland to register 30 second-chance points. The Bulls have seen the league’s second-biggest drop in defensive rebounding percentage from last season (73.6%, third) to this season (70.1%, 21st).

The bigger difference between the Bulls with LaVine and the Bulls without him has been on offense, and that trend should continue as they play the Hawks and Pacers (both in the top 5 on offense and in the bottom 5 on defense) this week. Their six-game homestand concludes with another game against the Sixers.

Dec. 26 – Jan. 1: vs. ATL, vs. IND, vs. PHI

Record: 14-15

OffRtg: 116.9 (11) DefRtg: 116.3 (22) NetRtg: +0.5 (16) Pace: 98.9 (19)

The Nets took care of business against the Pistons on Saturday, but that win was preceded by a five-game losing streak that dropped them back below .500.

Three takeaways

• The losing streak was the Nets’ worst stretch of defense (123.9 points allowed per 100 possessions) this season and dropped them into the bottom 10 on that end of the floor. Before their loss to Denver on Friday, they had grabbed less than 70% of available defensive rebounds in seven straight games.

• There were struggles on the other end of the floor as well, with Mikal Bridges shooting just 31% (and barely getting to the rim) over the losing streak. Their current starting lineup has scored just 104.3 points per 100 possessions (and has been outscored by 19 per 100) in its 129 minutes.

• The lineup was a minus-4 in a little less than 13 minutes against Detroit, though Bridges did break out of his slump, scoring 29 points on 9-for-17 from the field and 10-for-10 from the line. The Nets continue to be at their best with reserves on the floor and have the league’s fifth-ranked bench overall.

No team wants to be the one that loses to the Pistons, and the Nets will face that pressure for the second straight game, visiting Detroit on Tuesday. Even if they can get back to .500, staying there will be tough with their upcoming schedule.

Dec. 26 – Jan. 1: @ DET, vs. MIL, @ WAS, @ OKC

Record: 14-15

OffRtg: 115.3 (16) DefRtg: 115.4 (19) NetRtg: -0.1 (19) Pace: 98.2 (25)

Yikes. The Suns, a team that was supposed to contend for a championship, have lost nine of their last 12 games to fall below .500 and into 11th place in the Western Conference.

Three takeaways

• They rank 25th offensively (111.5 points scored per 100 possessions) over the 12-game stretch, with only the Pistons, Spurs, Hornets, Grizzlies and Jazz having scored less efficiently over the last 27 days. They’ve actually rebounded well and gotten to the line, but they rank last in effective field goal percentage (51.3%) over that stretch.

• It’s not like the Suns have been playing a bunch of great defenses. Their last four games have come against teams that rank 30th, 17th, 21st and 23rd defensively, and they’ve scored an anemic 107.4 points per 100 possessions over the four, barely beating the Wizards and losing three straight.

• The good thing about having three stars is that you still have two (and should still be pretty good) when one isn’t available. Devin Booker (one) and Kevin Durant (two) have each missed games over this 3-9 stretch, but the Suns have also scored just 114 points per 100 possessions (worse than the league average) in their 245 minutes on the floor together since Nov. 9, down from 128.7 per 100 in 159 total minutes before that. Booker’s effective field goal percentage of 49.3% over this stretch ranks 106th among 128 players with at least 100 field goal attempts since Nov. 29.

The Suns will face a pair of top 5 defenses (those of the Rockets and Magic) this week. They’ll have a rest advantage on Wednesday in Houston (where the Rockets are 12-2) and their longest homestand of the season (six games over 10 days) begins with another rest-advantage game against the Hornets.

Dec. 26 – Jan. 1: @ HOU, vs. CHA, vs. ORL, vs. POR

Record: 9-19

OffRtg: 107.5 (29) DefRtg: 112.7 (8) NetRtg: -5.2 (24) Pace: 99.3 (17)

The Grizzlies are 3-0 with Ja Morant, who announced his return with 34 points and the buzzer-beating game-winner in New Orleans on Tuesday.

Three takeaways

• When most players make a spin move, they continue in the same direction as they leave the ground. When Morant made his left-shoulder spin move on Herb Jones with two seconds left on Tuesday, his jump took him back to the left, an amazing display of instinct and athleticism. Jones reached for the ball where it would be on a normal spin move, but it wasn’t there.

• The three games with Morant have been the Grizzlies’ best three-game of stretch offense by a healthy margin, and their win in Atlanta on Saturday was their most efficient performance of the season (125 points on 100 possessions). Morant and Desmond Bane combined for 67 points and 17 assists, while Jaren Jackson Jr. shot 8-for-10.

• Morant has shot 2-for-16 from outside the paint but is 31-for-49 (63%) in the paint. His 20.7 points in the paint per game would lead the league.

The good thing about a player coming back from a suspension and not an injury is that there are no restrictions on his minutes or worries about back-to-backs. After the Grizzlies play another game in New Orleans, they’ll begin their only stretch of five games in seven days with a visit to Denver. They were 0-3 in the second game of back-to-backs before Morant’s game-winner last week.

JA MORANT WINS IT FOR THE GRIZZLIES 🚨

🔥 34 PTS
🔥 6 REB
🔥 8 AST
🔥 2 STL pic.twitter.com/sapRX9q6lA

— NBA TV (@NBATV) December 20, 2023

Dec. 26 – Jan. 1: @ NOP, @ DEN, @ LAC, vs. SAC

Record: 12-17

OffRtg: 119.4 (5) DefRtg: 119.9 (27) NetRtg: -0.5 (20) Pace: 102.2 (5)

The Hawks got one of their best victories of the season, winning in Houston (where the Rockets had won 11 straight) behind big minutes from their bench. But their defense remains porous, and two straight wins have been followed by two straight losses in which they allowed 123.5 points per 100 possessions.

Three takeaways

• Trae Young has had at least 30 points and 10 assists in seven straight games, tied (with Oscar Robertson) for the longest such streak in NBA history. Over those seven games, the Hawks have scored 16.4 more points per 100 possessions with Young on the floor (124.0) than they have with him off the floor (107.6).

• Though the offense has been better with Young on the floor, Saddiq Bey has had a much higher effective field goal percentage as a reserve (58.9%) than he has as a starter (51.9%). After 14 straight starts, he should be back on the bench with Jalen Johnson making his return from a wrist injury on Tuesday.

• The Hawks rank last in opponent effective field goal percentage on shots from outside the paint (55.6%), but that’s lower than their opponents’ field goal percentage in the paint (59.7%, 28th). The Grizzlies were 38-for-57 (67%) in the paint on Saturday, with their 76 paint points being tied for the third most in a game this season.

The Hawks’ defense has been at its best (113.4 points allowed per 100 possessions) with Johnson on the floor, even though Young is the teammate he’s played the most minutes with. His return will come in Atlanta’s first game against the Bulls’ 24th-ranked offense.

Dec. 26 – Jan. 1: @ CHI, vs. SAC, @ WAS

Record: 12-18

OffRtg: 111.7 (25) DefRtg: 118.2 (24) NetRtg: -6.5 (25) Pace: 100.0 (14)

The Jazz have won five of their last seven games, a stretch that includes two rest-disadvantage, road wins without Lauri Markkanen.

Three takeaways

• The bigger difference between the last seven games (118.9 points scored per 100 possessions) and the previous 23 (109.6) has been on offense. They’re still in the bottom 10 in turnover rate over the last two weeks, but the Jazz’s 13.6 per 100 possessions is a huge drop from the 17.4 they committed per 100 (most in the league) before that. Kelly Olynyk has led the team with 50 assists (committing only 11 turnovers) over the seven games.

• The Jazz lost all of a 13-point point lead in Detroit on Thursday but never trailed after the first quarter, handed the Pistons their 25th straight loss, and improved to 9-0 in games they led at the half. The Kings (13-0) are the only other team that hasn’t lost a game it led at halftime.

• Jordan Clarkson returned from a six-game absence on Saturday and came off the bench for the first time this season. The former Kia Sixth Man of the Year took well to a reserve role, scoring 30 points and dishing out six assists in a little more than 30 minutes, with the Jazz outscoring Toronto by 19 points with him on the floor. They came back from a 17-point deficit and picked up their third win (they’re 3-17) in games they trailed at the half.

There are three teams below the Jazz in the Western Conference standings. They’ve already played seven games against the Blazers and Grizzlies, but they have yet to face the Spurs, who they’ll visit on Tuesday.

Dec. 26 – Jan. 1: @ SAS, @ NOP, vs. MIA, vs. DAL

Record: 11-18

OffRtg: 113.0 (20) DefRtg: 115.2 (18) NetRtg: -2.2 (22) Pace: 98.8 (20)

The Raptors have had a relatively easy December, with their 10 games coming with a cumulative opponent winning percentage of .495. But they’re 2-8 this month, with losses to the Hornets and Jazz included.

Three takeaways

• This season, the Raptors have been at their worst (minus-5.4 points per 100 possessions) in the first quarter and better with each ensuing period. But they got off to a great start (27-12) in Philadelphia on Friday and were up 17 against Utah the following night. And they lost both games, allowing 131 points on just 97 defensive possessions (135 per 100) over the two second halves.

• It’s on defense where the Raptors have been more disappointing. They’ve ranked no worse than 11th defensively in each of the last six seasons that they didn’t spend in Tampa, and they were in the top 10 through the first four weeks this season. But they’ve since fallen to 20th, and the drop-off from last season is mostly about turnovers. They’ve forced just 13.6 per 100 possessions (17th), down from 16.9 (first) last season.

• The Raptors did have a comeback win against Charlotte last Monday when their lineup with Gary Trent Jr. in Jakob Poeltl’s place outscored the Hornets by 19 points in a little more than 13 minutes. For the season, they’ve scored an incredible 148 points per 100 possessions (in just 97 total minutes) with Pascal Siakam at center.

The Raptors are just 3-9 (0-5 since Thanksgiving) on the road, where they’ll play nine of their next 10 games. They’ll have rest advantages in Washington and Boston this week but are just 1-4 in rest-advantage games thus far.

Dec. 26 – Jan. 1: @ WAS, @ BOS, @ DET, vs. CLE

Record: 7-21

OffRtg: 108.3 (27) DefRtg: 115.1 (17) NetRtg: -6.9 (26) Pace: 98.6 (22)

The Blazers put an end to their seven-game losing streak by beating the Suns on Tuesday, picking up their third victory (tied for the league lead) in a game they trailed by at least 15 points. They erased an 18-point deficit against Washington two nights later, but couldn’t complete the comeback, because they missed some layups down the stretch.

Three takeaways

• Though they allowed the Warriors to shoot 58% on Saturday, the Blazers still rank as the league’s fourth most-improved defensive team, having allowed 2.9 fewer points per 100 possessions than they did last season. As noted on Thursday, that’s mostly about a big jump in opponent turnover rate and a huge drop in opponent 3-point percentage.

• They’ve also seen a small drop in the percentage of their opponents’ shots that have come from 3-point range and have allowed a league-low 10.7 made 3s per game. The Suns aren’t a high-volume 3-point shooting team, but they’ve attempted less than 25% of their shots from 3-point range just three times this season. Two of those three instances are their two games against the Blazers, who outscored Phoenix by 27 points (tied for their best differential of the season) from 3-point range on Tuesday.

• The Blazers haven’t had as much success in the paint. Their loss to the Wizards on Thursday, in which Deandre Ayton and Anfernee Simons missed three (relatively uncontested) layups to tie or take the lead in the final 65 seconds, was the 12th time that they shot less than 50% this season. Only one other team — Memphis (10) — has shot worse than 50% in the paint more than seven times.

The Blazers are the only team with multiple road trips of at least seven games. The first (seven games in 12 days) begins in Phoenix on New Year’s Day. They’ll close 2023 with their first two games against the only team below them in the Western Conference standings.

Dec. 26 – Jan. 1: vs. SAC, vs. SAS, vs. SAS, @ PHX

Record: 7-20

OffRtg: 110.6 (26) DefRtg: 121.2 (29) NetRtg: -10.6 (28) Pace: 99.4 (16)

The Hornets continue to be without multiple starters every night, they’ve lost seven straight games, and they just had one of the ugliest 11 minutes of basketball you’ll ever see.

Three takeaways

• The Hornets (playing with a rest advantage) had a six-point, halftime lead over the Nuggets on Saturday. And then they proceeded to miss their first 19 shots of the third quarter, with eight different guys missing at least one. Their nine points on 25 third-period possessions was the least efficient quarter for any team this season. The Hornets actually climbed back from an 18-point deficit to get within three with a little more than three minutes left … and then missed their last eight shots of the game.

• Only four of those first 19 shots of the third quarter were from beyond the arc, but Saturday was the fifth straight game in which the Hornets shot less than 30% from 3-point range. They’ve had 12 games total of worse-than-30% shooting from deep, with no other team having more than 10.

• Cody Martin made his season debut on Saturday, but the Hornets were without LaMelo Ball, Terry Rozier and Mark Williams. Then, Brandon Miller sprained his ankle in the second quarter. The Hornets are one of five teams that don’t have a lineup that’s played at least 100 minutes, with their most-used lineup (which doesn’t include Ball or Williams) having played just 87.

The Hornets are one of three winless teams — the Pistons and Spurs are the others — in interconference games and are 0-5 against the West after their loss to the champs on Saturday. They now begin their longest road trip of the season (six games over 11 days), with the first five games against the West.

Dec. 26 – Jan. 1: @ LAC, @ LAL, @ PHX, @ DEN

Record: 5-23

OffRtg: 112.4 (22) DefRtg: 121.4 (30) NetRtg: -10.6 (27) Pace: 104.2 (1)

The Wizards remain the only team that hasn’t won two straight games this season, but the 14th-place team in the East got a win over the 14th-place team in the West on Thursday.

Three takeaways

• The Wizards’ win in Portland was their first clutch victory of the season. They were previously 0-8 in games that were within five points in the last five minutes, and they’ve still scored just 50 points on 75 clutch possessions, having shot 3-for-24 on clutch 3-pointers. But they were up 13 with less than 16 minutes left on Thursday and were able to hold on when the Blazers missed some layups in the final minute.

• The last three games of their 1-3 trip were a relatively good stretch of offense (119.9 points scored per 100 possessions). Tyus Jones has been on fire, averaging 17.8 points on an effective field goal percentage of 80% (he’s 14-for-19 from 3-point range) over the last five games.

• Jones also has a 40/5 assist/turnover ratio over that stretch and is the league leader (at 6.86) for the sixth straight season. This is also the sixth straight season where he’s had more steals (33) than personal fouls (21), with only five other players having a positive differential in at least 300 minutes this year.

The Wizards have played the league’s most road-heavy schedule to date, with only 10 of their 28 games having come at Capital One Arena. They’ll have a few winnable games on the four-game homestand that begins Tuesday, though they’ll be at a rest disadvantage against the Raptors the following night.

With their losses at Sacramento and Golden State last week, they’re 0-4 in rest-disadvantage games, with one of those losses having come in Toronto, where the Wizards scored zero points on seven clutch possessions.

Dec. 26 – Jan. 1: vs. ORL, vs. TOR, vs. BKN, vs. ATL

Record: 4-24

OffRtg: 106.5 (30) DefRtg: 118.6 (25) NetRtg: -12.1 (30) Pace: 103.0 (3)

The Spurs went 0-3 on a road trip in which Victor Wembanyama missed two of the three games and scored a season-low seven points in the other. Having scored just 103.5 points per 100 possessions over their four-game losing streak, they’ve fallen to 30th in offensive efficiency for the season.

Three takeaways

• The one thing the Spurs’ offense did well last season was crash the glass, ranking seventh in offensive rebounding percentage. But they traded their leading offensive rebounder (Jakob Poeltl) at the deadline and they’ve seen the league’s third-biggest drop in offensive rebounding percentage from last season to this one.

• With that, they, amazingly, rank in the bottom 5 in all four factors on offense. No team has done that (and only seven teams have ranked in the bottom 10 in all four) over a full season in the 27 previous years for which we have play-by-play data.

• The Spurs have outscored their opponents by 23.4 points per 100 possessions in 140 total minutes with Wembanyama, Tre Jones and Devin Vassell on the floor, but have been outscored by 15.0 per 100 in 530 minutes with two of the three on the floor and by 24.0 per 100 in 513 minutes with only one of the three on the floor.

With their loss in Chicago on Thursday, the Spurs are 0-5 against the other nine teams that are at least two games under .500, having played only four of the nine. Ten of their next 14 games are against that group, with their first games against the Jazz and Blazers this week.

Dec. 26 – Jan. 1: vs. UTA, @ POR, @ POR, vs. BOS

Record: 2-27

OffRtg: 107.7 (28) DefRtg: 119.1 (26) NetRtg: -11.4 (29) Pace: 101.4 (7)

The Pistons faced three not-so-great opponents last week and still couldn’t put an end to their losing streak, which has now hit 26 games, tied for the longest single-season losing streak in NBA history.

Three takeaways

• The three opponents last week (Atlanta, Utah and Brooklyn) all rank in the bottom 10 defensively, and the Pistons had their best three-game stretch of offense this season (115.1 points scored per 100 possessions). Cade Cunningham scored a career-high 43 points against the Hawks, while Jaden Ivey (in the starting lineup) totaled 47 points on 15-for-27 shooting against the Jazz and Nets.

• The Pistons started Marvin Bagley alongside Isaiah Stewart on Thursday, and the starting lineup outscored the Jazz by 10 points in a little more than 27 minutes. Two nights later, Ausar Thompson started instead of Bagley, and the (smaller) starting lineup was a plus-5 in 15.9 minutes in Brooklyn. But bench minutes continue to be really bad. Last season, the Pistons were much better (minus-1.0 per 100 possessions) with Alec Burks on the floor. This season has been a different story (minus-15.4 per 100).

• Though the smaller lineup had some success over the weekend, the Pistons have been much better (minus-2.4 per 100) when Stewart has played alongside another big (Bagley, Jalen Duren or James Wiseman) than they’ve been when he’s been the lone big on the floor (minus-16.3 per 100). That difference is almost entirely about defense.

To avoid being the sole owners of the longest single-season losing streak in NBA history, the Pistons will have to beat the Nets on Tuesday. A rest-advantage game against the Raptors later in the week looks like a better chance to end the streak if it’s still going.

Dec. 26 – Jan. 1: vs. BKN, @ BOS, vs. TOR, @ HOU