The Knicks had one of the five most efficient offenses in the league last season. They’re currently 28th after five games.

Shooting is the most important aspect of basketball. If your team shoots effectively, it will probably have an efficient offense. If it doesn’t, it probably won’t.

Last season, the New York Knicks defied that doctrine, ranking fourth in offensive efficiency despite ranking 20th in effective field goal percentage. In the 27 years for which we have play-by-play data, only one other team — the 2021-22 Memphis Grizzlies (4th and 23rd) — has had a top-five offense while ranking that low in the most important of the four factors on that end of the floor.

The Knicks did it by ranking in the top 10 in each of the other three. They were especially strong in regard to taking care of the ball (fifth in turnover rate) and getting second chances (second in offensive rebounding percentage).

1. A big drop in efficiency

After their rough 95-89 loss to the Cavs on Wednesday, the 2-3 Knicks have scored 13.1 fewer points per 100 possessions than they did last season. That’s the league’s biggest drop in offensive efficiency.

Biggest drop, points scored per 100 possessions

Through Nov. 2, 2023

It’s still very early and four of the Knicks’ five games have come against teams — Cleveland (1), Boston (2) and New Orleans (6) — that ranked in the top six defensively last season. But the other teams on the list above are either missing or have lost key players. The Knicks lead the league in continuity, with only Obi Toppin gone from last year’s rotation. And they’ve been healthy, with only RJ Barrett missing a game (Wednesday vs. the Cavs).

2. Same strength, same weakness

The Knicks remain a great offensive rebounding team, ranking second in offensive rebounding percentage, with Mitchell Robinson having grabbed five more offensive boards (30) than anybody else in the league.

Evan Mobley is surely happy that he doesn’t have to see Robinson for another four months:

But the Knicks are again struggling to make shots, ranking last in effective field goal percentage (46.9%). Julius Randle (32.9%) has had a rough start to the season, ranking last among 95 players with at least 50 field goal attempts.

3. Not finishing in the paint

Robinson has taken only 25 shots but has seen the second-biggest shooting drop (from 67.1% to 48.0%) among Knicks rotation players. And really, it’s been more of a finishing problem than a shooting problem.

Knicks effective field goal percentage

eFG% = (FGM + (0.5 * 3PM)) / FGA
Through Nov. 2, 2023

Some of that is Robinson’s tip-in attempts that are hard to control, but the two Knicks with the most field goal attempts in the paint are Jalen Brunson (16-for-44) and Randle (11-for-37), who are a combined 27-for-81 (33.3%) in the paint, down from a combined 56.7% last season.

4. The ball can get stuck

Again, it’s super early. The Knicks have played five of 82 games. Brunson and Randle will get sharper as the season goes on. There is one thing about the Knicks’ offense, however, that could be holding them back (again). And it’s a lack of ball movement.

The Knicks rank 26th in ball movement, averaging 299 passes per 24 minutes of possession. They’re also 25th in player movement (11.1 miles traveled per 24 minutes of possession), one of five teams in the bottom 10 in both. Last season, they ranked 25th and 20th, so this isn’t anything new.

There’s no correlation between ball movement and offensive efficiency. In fact, three of the teams that rank below the Knicks in the former — Boston, Dallas and the Clippers — have top five offenses through Thursday.

Those teams also have Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, Luka Doncic, Paul George and Kawhi Leonard. The Knicks do have Brunson and Randle, but their isolation efficiency is way down from last season.

Their one-on-one skills should create good shots for their teammates (and each other), but sometimes, when an advantage (two defenders to the ball) is gained, the ball often stops after one pass:

As seen above, Brunson takes some tough shots. So does Randle, even when he has an open teammate:

Sometimes, an extra pass is a beat too late:

The Knicks do have the occasional possession of great ball and player movement:

And sometimes, Randle can stop the ball, but gain another advantage and make the right play:

But those positive plays aren’t happening enough on the Knicks’ end of the floor. They’re playing to their strengths — Brunson’s paint attacks and footwork, Randle’s bully ball, and Robinson on the glass — but could make things easier on themselves by adding a little more passing zip to those elements, while forcing fewer tough shots.

The Knicks do rank second defensively, controlling the glass on that end of the floor as well. With that, New York and its opponents have combined to score just 103.1 points per 100 possessions, the lowest combined mark in the league.

But after playing three straight games against teams — the Pelicans and Cavs — that rank in the bottom 10 on offense, they’ll face some more potent opponents in the coming days. And the Knicks will have to get their own offense going at some point if they want to earn a top-five seed in the East for the third time in the last four years.

The Knicks are off to a slow-ish start, but if there’s a good time to be playing the Milwaukee Bucks (2-2), it’s right now. And New York will play its first In-Season Tournament game in Milwaukee on Friday (7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN).

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John Schuhmann is a senior stats analyst for NBA.com. You can e-mail him here, find his archive here and follow him on Twitter.

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