2020-21 Kia Season Preview

2020-21 Season Preview: Milwaukee Bucks

Can the Bucks recover from yet another postseason disappointment?

Steve Aschburner

Steve Aschburner

How many games will the Milwaukee Bucks win this season?

When last seen, the Bucks were … having a wonderful vacation and a bumpy flight home. A great movie, but a dreary ending. Pick your own metaphor for the fact that the Bucks can’t look back too happily on last season — or the season before that — without running smack into how poorly things ended. In 2019, it was a magical regular season and 2-0 lead in the Eastern Conference finals before fizzling in four straight losses to Toronto. This time, another stellar pre-bubble campaign got lost with Milwaukee’s mojo somewhere during the virus shutdown. The Bucks went 8-10 in Orlando, including their ouster in five by Miami in the conference semis. There’s a “championship or bust” cloud in 2020-21 over these guys

Whats new? GM Jon Horst seemed to have pulled off two master strokes in the same 24-hour period when news broke early that he had a) traded for New Orleans guard Jrue Holiday and b) signed-and-traded for Sacramento wing Bogdan Bogdanovic. Then the Bogdanovic deal unraveled with some tampering scrutiny. Still, Holiday is a big get, a strong guard capable of playing both backcourt spots and guarding more than that. Torrey Craig, Bryn Forbes, Bobby Portis and Bryn Forbes are other new arrivals, changing up the chemistry while plugging holes left by Eric Bledsoe, Wesley Matthews, Ersan Ilyasova, Robin Lopez, Marvin Williams and Kyle Korver.

Whats missing: Changing personnel is one thing. Changing tactics and, better yet, changing results are what really count. Milwaukee needs to demonstrate that they’re more than a 3-point hoisting crew built around Giannis Antetokounmpo’s disruptive penetration. Khris Middleton needs to play more forcefully night in, night out. Holiday can pose pick-and-roll danger, a nice addition. Defensively, the Bucks can be the league’s best for the third straight season … as long as they’re dare-you-to-make-them approach to 3-point shooters holds. And Antetokounmpo needs to up his game, developing a mid-range jumper and reliability from the foul line.


POTENTIAL STARTING FIVE

Jrue Holiday | 19.1 ppg, 4.8 rpg, 6.7 apg
One of the league’s top individual defenders joins the NBA’s No. 1 team.

Donte DiVincenzo | 9.2 ppg, 4.8 rpg, 2.3 apg
More minutes likely, so per-36 results (14.4 ppg, 7.5 rpg)?

Brook Lopez | 12.0 ppg, 4.6 rog, 2.4 bpg
His 3-point percentage dipped, but earned All-Defensive honors as the Bucks’ anchor.

Khris Middleton | 20.9 ppg, 6.2 rpg, 4.3 apg
Fell only three missed FGs shy of 50/40/90 shooting club.

Giannis Antetokounmpo | 29.5 ppg, 13.6 rpg, 5.6 apg
Two-time Kia MVP did all his nightly damage in just 30.4 minutes.


KEY RESERVES

Bobby Portis | 10.1 ppg, 5.1 rpg, 1.5 apg
Brings lively, mobile look to backup center in lieu of Robin Lopez.

Torrey Craig | 5.4 ppg, 3.3 rpg, 0.8 apg
Net rating flipped negative after a strong Denver 2019 postseason.

D.J. Augustin | 10.5 ppg, 2.1 rpg, 4.6 apg
Veteran backup point guards thrive in Bucks’ system.


Milwaukee Bucks, last 5 seasons

Season W L PCT OffRtg Rank DefRtg Rank NetRtg Rank
2019-20 56 17 0.767 111.9 8 102.5 1 +9.4 1
2018-19 60 22 0.732 113.5 4 104.9 1 +8.6 1
2017-18 44 38 0.537 109.0 10 109.1 18 -0.2 20
2016-17 42 40 0.512 108.5 13 108.7 19 -0.2 16
2015-16 33 49 0.402 103.4 26 107.8 23 -4.5 26

OffRtg = Points scored per 100 possessions
DefRtg = Points allowed per 100 possessions
NetRtg = Point differential per 100 possessions


SEASON PREDICTION

Nothing the Bucks need to fix will get fully tested in the regular season. Consider it a really long runway to see how well they fly in the playoffs. And by fly, anything short of a Finals destination won’t satisfy. Milwaukee knows Antetokounmpo will face defensive walls in every best-of-7 series, and can’t have its 3-point shooters or Giannis’ free throw proficiency abandon them. This team’s time is now.

Predicted finish: 50-22.

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Steve Aschburner has written about the NBA since 1980. You can e-mail him here, find his archive here and follow him on Twitter.

The views on this page do not necessarily reflect the views of the NBA, its clubs or Turner Broadcasting.

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