Western Conference Playoff Race

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Julian AndrewsWeb Editorial AssociateTwitter

We talk about games as “must-wins” quite a bit late in the season. Perhaps we overuse the phrase, but tonight truly fits that description. A Wolves win puts them in the playoffs, a loss keeps them out.

However, if the Wolves earn a postseason spot tonight, their seeding is far from certain. Depending on the results of the rest of the night’s games, the Wolves could finish in sixth, seventh, or eighth place, and could end up facing the Rockets, Warriors, Blazers or Jazz in the first round.

Here’s how those scenarios play out, obviously they all assume a Minnesota win over Denver:

-No. 8 seed: Pelicans beat Spurs, Thunder defeat Grizzlies, Blazers/Jazz result doesn’t matter. Wolves would face the Rockets in the first round.  -No. 7 seed: Pelicans defeat Spurs, Grizzlies defeat Thunder OR Spurs defeat Pelicans, Thunder defeat Grizzlies. Blazers/Jazz matchup doesn’t matter. Wolves face Warriors in the first round. -No. 6 seed: Spurs defeat Pelicans, Grizzlies defeat Thunder. Wolves face winner of Blazers/Jazz.

That’s refreshingly straightforward after weeks of playoff scenarios that practically require an advanced degree in statistics to parse out. The scenarios above are the whole picture in a nutshell, but let’s go game by game.

For the last time this season, Wolves fans, here’s your cheering guide:

The Spurs hold the tiebreaker over the Wolves, so it’s better for Minnesota’s playoff standing if the Spurs win straight up and knock New Orleans into a tie with the Wolves.

If the Spurs win, the Wolves have no chance of falling to the No. 8 seed and could finish as high as sixth. If they lose, Minnesota could still finish in seventh, but it would require a Memphis upset over the Thunder to avoid the No. 8 seed.

We’ve been rooting for the Spurs in quite a few games lately, which feels odd to say the least, but you got to do what you got to do. Let’s hope San Antonio can find a way to slow down Anthony Davis, and Manu Ginobili holds onto the throwback magic he captured against the Kings.

Grizzlies at Thunder, 7 p.m., League Pass

You’ve got to give the Grizzlies credit. They play with a lot of hustle and try to win every night despite being depleted by injuries. When Mike Conely returns next season, and the team adds what is sure to be a high draft pick, the franchise may actually be in pretty good shape.

But they still have one more game to play in a season that hasn’t gone as they hoped.

The Wolves would love for the Grizzlies to beat the Thunder. If Memphis does get the win, it would guarantee the Wolves at least the No. 7 seed. The Wolves’ only path to the No. 6 seed also requires a Thunder loss.

It may seem unlikely—the Thunder will be fighting hard to keep their playoff position—but the Grizzlies have given playoff teams trouble before. Wolves fans should be checking the score of this one during Wolves timeouts.

While this game doesn’t affect the Wolves’ seeding, it may dictate their first-round opponent.

The winner of this game will earn the West’s No. 3 seed, and the loser could fall to fifth. If Minnesota wins and gets losses from both the Pelicans and Thunder tonight, they’d play the winner of this game in the West’s 3-6 matchup.  

Wolves fans, you can do your own analysis of who you’d rather face. Both these teams have given Minnesota some trouble this season. However, the Jazz are very hot, and have won their last two matchups against the Wolves. The Blazers have been slipping, and don’t look as invincible as they did earlier this year. I’d personally rather play Portland.

This is the NBA’s last game of the regular season, with a 9:30 p.m. national television tipoff, so Wolves fans will need to stay up late to catch the result. Ideally we’d be watching to find out our playoff opponent.

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Wolves Playoff Watch Viewing Guide | April 11, 2018

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The most impactful game remaining this NBA season will be Wednesday’s Wolves and Nuggets game.

The winner will make the 2018 postseason. The loser will not. It’s that simple.

The rest of the playoff scenarios? Eh. Not so simple.

The winner of the game has a chance to jump as high as the fifth seed with some help over the next two days.

It will certainly make for some must-watch basketball. The Wolves have the 2-1 advantage over the Nuggets this season. The lone loss came last Thursday when the team was without Jimmy Butler.

We will have plenty of content surrounding that game.

But we want to give you the up-to-date playoff possibilities for the Wolves heading into Tuesday night.

(Round the zero, divide by eight, multiply by 3,2x. EASY!)

Tonight, Wolves fans should hope for a Warriors win over the Jazz (1.5 games ahead of the Wolves – Minnesota would have the division tiebreaker if the two teams end with the same record) which leaves the door open for the Wolves to get as high as the no. 5 seed with a win on Wednesday night plus a bunch of other things happening).

Tipoff between Utah and Golden State is set for 8 p.m. in Utah. The game will air on League Pass.

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Updated Western Conference Playoff Scenarios

What a night of scoreboard watching it was on Monday night in the Western Conference.

Were your hands sweaty while going from the Wolves game to the Spurs game to the Blazers/Nuggets game? 

On the base level, the most-important news for a Wolves fan is that they won on Monday night against the Grizzlies.

Minnesota needed a Spurs win over the Kings and a Blazers win over the Nuggets to clinch a spot. 

The Spurs came back to beat the Kings in the fourth, but the Nuggets ruined everything by beating the Blazers in quite the ugly fourth-quarter battle. No clinch for the Wolves on Monday night.  

As of Tuesday morning, the Wolves sit at 46-35, eighth in the West. The Nuggets are also 46-35 after their win over the Blazers in Denver.

The Wolves have the 2-1 tiebreaker over the Nuggets as of now, but guess what? In today’s “you can’t make this up” news, the two teams are scheduled to play on Wednesday night at Target Center with a playoff berth on the line in the season finale.  

If Denver were to win, it’d have a better divisional record, thus giving the Nuggets the tiebreaker. But let’s not think like that.

The Wolves are 2-1 against the Nuggets this season. Both wins came with Jimmy Butler in the lineup, while the loss last Thursday was Butler’s last game sitting out with a knee injury. In those two wins over Denver (one in overtime), Butler averaged 32 points, 4.5 assists and 3.0 rebounds while shooting 51.4 percent from the field and 40 percent from the 3-point line. 

Read: Having Jimmy Butler in the lineup is a very good thing for the Timberwolves. 

This isn’t necessarily a “battle for the eighth seed.”

But, if the Wolves were to win, they could climb up in the standings depending on how other teams do. For instance, if the Pelicans fall to the Spurs on Wednesday night and the Wolves beat the Nuggets, the Wolves would jump over the Pelicans since they’d have the same 47-35 record and the Wolves have the 4-0 season-series tiebreaker over the Pelicans. Same goes for the Thunder. OKC is unlikely to fall to Memphis on Wednesday, but if so, the Wolves would also jump the Thunder with the 3-1 season-series tiebreaker. And to blow up your brain a little more . . . In a vacuum, if the Jazz would fall to the Warriors and Blazers on Tuesday and Wednesday, respectively, the Wolves and Jazz would have the same 47-35 record and since the teams split the season series and Minnesota would have a better divisional record, the Wolves would have the tiebreaker. 

Confusing stuff, I know. The most-important thing for a Wolves fan to know is that a win on Wednesday gets them in. Everything else will take care of itself.

Wednesday night will be the most-important Timberwolves game in more than a decade and it’s a chance for the Wolves to earn at least four more games of equal importance. 

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Western Conference Playoff Update | Wednesday Will Be Wild

You’ve seen the headlines, you’ve read the reports. The Wolves, currently with a record of 45-35, could clinch a playoff spot tonight if they win, the Nuggets lose, and the Spurs win.

The Nuggets loss makes sense. They are right behind the Wolves in the No. 9 seed, with the same record as Minnesota. The Wolves hold a 2-1 head-to-head tiebreaker right now but remember these two teams face each other one more time on Wednesday. It’s obvious why we would want them to lose.

But the Spurs? We’ve been advocating for Spurs losses for weeks! They’re one of the teams that has prevented the Wolves from moving up in the standings, and they’re still competing with the Wolves for position—why would we want them to win? It all comes down to the numbers.

In the NBA, tiebreakers are determined by weighing a series of factors. The first is head-to-head record—this is very straightforward: if two teams have the same overall record, whichever team has more wins against their direct competition moves on. If teams’ head-to-head record is also tied, the tiebreaker is determined by which team has the better record against teams in the entire division.

But here’s where it gets tricky: if more than two teams are tied, the tiebreak standings are determined by the teams’ combined head-to-head record before it defaults to division record. A few more things to keep in mind:

-If the Wolves and Nuggets both win tonight, they will not be able to finish with the same record, because both teams’ final games are against each other. -If the Spurs win tonight they will be unable to tie both the Nuggets and Wolves but could tie the winner of the final game between the two.  -Portland (who the Nuggets play tonight) is in the same conference as Denver and the Wolves. 

The reason the Wolves need a Spurs win tonight is because if the Spurs lose, the Nuggets lose, and the Wolves win, there is a chance all three teams could finish with a record of 46-36 (if the Spurs lose their final game and the Nuggets beat the Wolves on Wednesday). If that should take place, the Spurs would finish above both teams no matter the outcome, and the winner of the Wolves vs. Nuggets game (in this case, Denver), would get the second spot.

However, if either the Thunder or Pelicans also finishes with the same record, the Wolves would not be the odd team out—they have played well enough against both those teams to pad their overall head-to-head record in those scenarios.

If the Spurs win tonight and the Nuggets lose, the Minnesota and Denver could end up tied (if the Nuggets beat the Wolves on Wednesday), but their head to head and Division records would also be tied, and the tiebreak would move to Conference record, in which case the Wolves would get the spot. That’s the clinch scenario for tonight.

If the Spurs, Nuggets, and Wolves all win tonight, it opens up an entirely new set of possibilities, but if that happens we’ll address it tomorrow.

If all this has your head spinning, you’re not alone. But it’s important to remember that the Wolves don’t need losses from other teams tonight to make the playoffs, only to clinch tonight. While the Spurs, Nuggets, and Wolves’ games are the most important tonight, several other teams in the race play as well, and the results could impact the Wolves’ seeding down the line.

The Thunder are right in the thick of things in the West with a record of 46-34. While the outcome of this game doesn’t factor into Minnesota’s clinch scenario tonight, if things don’t go the Wolves’ way, the Thunder’s record could become very relevant.

The Heat are locked in a close fight with the Wizards and Bucks for seeds 6-8 in the East. They need wins every night to keep position.

Wolves fans, you probably could have guessed this one, but you should be rooting for Miami.

In an odd turn of events outlined above, the Wolves are hoping for a Spurs win tonight. If there are any Wolves fans out there who love midrange turnaround jumpers, solid team defense and aging Hall of Fame power forwards, tonight is your night!

The Spurs have a good shot at winning tonight. Though they got blitzed by the Lakers on Wednesday in overtime, they followed it up with a good win against Portland on Saturday. San Antonio plays at home, the Kings, while fun to watch and promising… let’s just say it hasn’t been their year.

Never thought I’d say it, but go Spurs!

Have you been paying attention to this article so far? If so you know how the Wolves want this game to fall. It’s always hard to win in Denver, but man could the Wolves use an assist from the Blazers tonight.

Portland is fighting to hold off Utah for the No. 3 seed, so the Blazers will be zoned in, but they dropped all three games on their Texas road trip and haven’t looked as dominant as they did last month. However, there is the revenge game factor going in the Blazers’ favor. Jusuf Nurkic loves playing the Nuggets, and there’s a distinct possibility he destroys Nikola Jokic. Wolves fans should be rooting for that result.

It was a good fight, but the Clippers are officially eliminated from playoff contention.

Now it’s their turn to play spoiler and do the Wolves a solid. There’s a very real possibility we end up with multiple teams with the same record at the end of the season. Such a result favors the Wolves, who have tiebreakers over every team they’re competing with except the Spurs (and Nuggets, which is still TBD). For the Wolves to move up, they need some New Orleans losses.

It seems like yesterday the Pelicans were almost out of the playoffs. Now they’re the No. 5 seed. Such is the nature of this year.

Wolves fans should be hoping the Clippers knock the Pelicans down a spot.

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Wolves Playoff Watch Viewing Guide | April 9, 2018

There was only one game that had Western Conference playoff implications last night.

The Jazz locked up a playoff spot with their 112-97 win over the Lakers in Los Angeles.

Rookie of the Year hopeful Donovan Mitchell led Utah with 28 points, nine rebounds and eight assists while Joe Ingles added 22 points and 10 assists.

What pass from Mitchell to Ingles is better?

It was Utah’s fifth-straight win and clinched a playoff berth for a team that lost Gordon Hayward this offseason and was written off by many around All-Star break. An incredible job from Quin Snyder to make the most of the pieces on his team.

The Jazz are 47-33 and are two games ahead of the Wolves. It’s possible that the Wolves can still leapfrog Utah with two Wolves wins (Minnesota plays Memphis on Monday and Denver on Wednesday) and two Jazz losses (Utah closes the season out at home against the Warriors and at Portland on Tuesday and Wednesday, respectively).

Utah and Minnesota are 2-2 against each other, but the Wolves are 9-6 in the division compared to Utah’s 7-8 mark, thus giving Minnesota the tiebreaker.

The Wolves are hoping to clinch on Monday night with a win over the Grizzlies, a Nuggets loss to Portland and a San Antonio win over the Kings.

We’ll preview tonight’s games later this afternoon.

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Western Conference Playoff Update | Jazz Clinch Spot

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In an insane Western Conference race, the Wolves control their own playoff destiny. But their potential playoff seeding could easily come down to what happens tonight.

There are four games between Western Conference teams that are either already a part of or fighting to be a part of the postseason, including a showdown between two teams with everything to lose. More on that in a minute.

While the NBA undoubtedly plans their schedule hoping for an exciting finish, there’s no way they predicted this kind of race in the Western Conference. It’s the closest finish in at least a decade and the depth of quality in the West is seriously impressive. The top 10 seeds in the conference are all above .500, and only six games separate the No. 10 and No. 4 seeds. That’s really amazing and says a lot about where the league stands today.

The Wolves have business to take care of. This late in the season, it can be difficult to pick who to root for in some of these key matchups. The Wolves would prefer every team in the West to lose, but with almost every game feeling like a season-defining showdown, some results would help Minnesota significantly more than others.

My goodness this is a huge game for these teams.

With their loss to the Jazz on Thursday, the Clippers (42-37) are in troubled waters, and if they lose this one, their playoff hopes will be doused. The Nuggets, meanwhile, are 44-35, in ninth place in the conference and a half game behind the Wolves.  

While in any other circumstances, the Wolves would not want Los Angeles to win, it’s great for the Wolves when their competition beats up on one another. With the Clippers maintaining only an outside shot at making the playoffs, and the Nuggets breathing down the Wolves’ necks with one more head-to-head matchup still to come, Minnesota fans should be rooting for the Clippers.

Los Angeles has already beaten the Nuggets twice this season and will be playing at home in what should be a playoff-type atmosphere at Staples Center. It’s very possible the Wolves get a bit of help Saturday afternoon — knock on wood.

The Rockets have the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference locked up, but they still display odd moments of weakness. On Thursday, they let the Blazers’ bench hang a 19-2 run on them late in the fourth quarter. It took a Chris Paul layup with 0.8 seconds left to seal a two-point win.

The Thunder lost to the Warriors on Tuesday and have lost four of their last five. Not how you want to enter the playoffs. When this Thunder team was built over the summer, a postseason run seemed inevitable, but if you look at the standings today they’re only one game away from dropping out of the playoffs entirely.

The Thunder (45-34) don’t hold tiebreakers over the Wolves, Nuggets, or Pelicans, so they’re entering dangerous territory if they get their 35th loss tonight. That would tie them in the loss column with the Wolves and Nuggets and drop them to ninth place.

Wolves fans should be rooting for the Rockets. A weakened Oklahoma City gives the Wolves a lot more room for error in their playoff hunt and opens the door for Minnesota to climb out of the eight seed.

Pelicans at Warriors, 7:30 p.m., League Pass

The Warriors have owned the Pelicans this year, in fact, the Warriors have won 10 straight dating back to 2015 against New Orleans.

Wolves fans should be hoping that dominance continues tonight.

The Pelicans are in fifth place because of tiebreakers over the Spurs and Thunder, but a loss would drop them below the Wolves in the standings, helping Minnesota move up.

New Orleans padded their record with their excellent play in February and early March, but they’ve looked shaky since, dropping four of their last six. But it’s been enough to keep pace in a competitive Western Conference.

Warriors coach Steve Kerr blasted the team’s effort in a blowout loss to the Indiana Pacers, but the Golden State has some wiggle room. They’ve locked up the West’s No. 2 seed, and at the end of the day, they’re still the defending champions.

Wolves fans should be hoping the Warriors come out motivated and get back to their winning ways.

Damian Lillard missed Portland’s loss to Houston on Thursday, but he’s expected to be back in the lineup when the Blazers meet the Spurs tonight. That’s good news for the Blazers—and for the Wolves.

Spurs losses are essential to Minnesota’s ability to move up in the standings. The Spurs are 45-34, and are the only team Minnesota is fighting for position with that it does not hold a tiebreaker over. The Spurs were unexpectedly defeated by both the Lakers and the Clippers last week, opening the door for a team like Minnesota to climb the standings.

The Blazers have lost two straight in Texas to the Mavericks and Rockets. They need one more win to clinch home court advantage in the first round of the playoffs. Needless to say, both these teams have a lot to play for. This should be a good one.

Wolves fans should be rooting for a Blazers win. 

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Wolves Playoff Watch Viewing Guide | April 7, 2018

However you slice it, last night’s loss was bad news for the Wolves. But today is another day, and another important game for Minnesota in L.A. against the Lakers.

Despite the loss to Denver, the Wolves still sit in the No. 8 seed and control their playoff destiny. But to move up in the standings they’ll need some help—starting tonight.

Tomorrow is loaded with important games, but tonight is relatively East-coast heavy. There is one game, however, that Wolves fans should be paying attention to as they cheer the Wolves to a win in Los Angeles.

The Pelicans snapped a mini skid with a win against Memphis at home on Wednesday, and after a few days off, they draw another matchup with one of the league’s worst teams. With the Wolves’ loss on Thursday night, the Pelicans are now a half game ahead of Minnesota for the West’s No. 7 seed.

The Suns’ 20-59 record doesn’t exactly inspire confidence, but they have some undoubtedly intriguing pieces. Rookie wing Josh Jackson dropped 28 points on the Kings on Tuesday, and has been on a tear, averaging 23.6 points on 48-percent shooting to go along with 4.6 rebounds, 3.0 assists, and 2.0 steals per game in his last five.  

Phoenix is still playing without leading scorer Devin Booker, so the Suns will need Jackson to step up big time against the Pelicans.

If New Orleans loses tonight, they would fall out of the playoff picture. The Nuggets hold the tiebreaker over the Pelicans by virtue of a 2-1 head-to-head advantage. Though it’s unlikely E’Twaun Moore will hit seven threes again tonight, Anthony Davis will have his squad dialed in for this one.

Wolves fans, put all your positive energy towards your team tonight, but if you’re feeling generous, throw the Suns a little love.  

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Wolves Playoff Watch Viewing Guide | April 6, 2018

Here’s the Wolves’ playoff seeding outlook as of Thursday morning:

The Wolves have a huge game tonight against the Nuggets. If the Wolves beat the Nuggets tonight and the Lakers on Friday, they'll clinch.

In other news, the Spurs lost last night (ironically, to the Lakers wearing their throwback Minneapolis jerseys), dropping them to fifth place. The loss means the No. 4 seed is still in play for the Wolves. Minnesota now needs to win their remaining games, and get one loss each from the Jazz and Spurs. If the Wolves go 3-1, they’ll need an additional loss from both those teams.

The Pelicans won last night, so they now have the same record as the Wolves (44-34). That isn’t a problem though, because the Wolves hold the tiebreaker over the Pelicans. Additionally, a Wolves win tonight would bump Minnesota up to the No. 6 seed by virtue of their tiebreaker over the Thunder.

The next week is going to be an exciting one, so stay tuned. We’ll check back tomorrow and update you on how things turn out tonight. 

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Road to the Playoffs Seeding Update | April 5, 2018

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