Julian AndrewsWeb Editorial AssociateTwitter
You’ve seen the headlines, you’ve read the reports. The Wolves, currently with a record of 45-35, could clinch a playoff spot tonight if they win, the Nuggets lose, and the Spurs win.
What?
The Nuggets loss makes sense. They are right behind the Wolves in the No. 9 seed, with the same record as Minnesota. The Wolves hold a 2-1 head-to-head tiebreaker right now but remember these two teams face each other one more time on Wednesday. It’s obvious why we would want them to lose.
But the Spurs? We’ve been advocating for Spurs losses for weeks! They’re one of the teams that has prevented the Wolves from moving up in the standings, and they’re still competing with the Wolves for position—why would we want them to win? It all comes down to the numbers.
In the NBA, tiebreakers are determined by weighing a series of factors. The first is head-to-head record—this is very straightforward: if two teams have the same overall record, whichever team has more wins against their direct competition moves on. If teams’ head-to-head record is also tied, the tiebreaker is determined by which team has the better record against teams in the entire division.
But here’s where it gets tricky: if more than two teams are tied, the tiebreak standings are determined by the teams’ combined head-to-head record before it defaults to division record. A few more things to keep in mind:
-If the Wolves and Nuggets both win tonight, they will not be able to finish with the same record, because both teams’ final games are against each other. -If the Spurs win tonight they will be unable to tie both the Nuggets and Wolves but could tie the winner of the final game between the two. -Portland (who the Nuggets play tonight) is in the same conference as Denver and the Wolves.
The reason the Wolves need a Spurs win tonight is because if the Spurs lose, the Nuggets lose, and the Wolves win, there is a chance all three teams could finish with a record of 46-36 (if the Spurs lose their final game and the Nuggets beat the Wolves on Wednesday). If that should take place, the Spurs would finish above both teams no matter the outcome, and the winner of the Wolves vs. Nuggets game (in this case, Denver), would get the second spot.
However, if either the Thunder or Pelicans also finishes with the same record, the Wolves would not be the odd team out—they have played well enough against both those teams to pad their overall head-to-head record in those scenarios.
If the Spurs win tonight and the Nuggets lose, the Minnesota and Denver could end up tied (if the Nuggets beat the Wolves on Wednesday), but their head to head and Division records would also be tied, and the tiebreak would move to Conference record, in which case the Wolves would get the spot. That’s the clinch scenario for tonight.
If the Spurs, Nuggets, and Wolves all win tonight, it opens up an entirely new set of possibilities, but if that happens we’ll address it tomorrow.
If all this has your head spinning, you’re not alone. But it’s important to remember that the Wolves don’t need losses from other teams tonight to make the playoffs, only to clinch tonight. While the Spurs, Nuggets, and Wolves’ games are the most important tonight, several other teams in the race play as well, and the results could impact the Wolves’ seeding down the line.
Here’s your cheering guide:
Thunder at Heat, 6:30 p.m., League Pass
The Thunder are right in the thick of things in the West with a record of 46-34. While the outcome of this game doesn’t factor into Minnesota’s clinch scenario tonight, if things don’t go the Wolves’ way, the Thunder’s record could become very relevant.
The Heat are locked in a close fight with the Wizards and Bucks for seeds 6-8 in the East. They need wins every night to keep position.
Wolves fans, you probably could have guessed this one, but you should be rooting for Miami.
Kings at Spurs, 7:30 p.m., League Pass
In an odd turn of events outlined above, the Wolves are hoping for a Spurs win tonight. If there are any Wolves fans out there who love midrange turnaround jumpers, solid team defense and aging Hall of Fame power forwards, tonight is your night!
The Spurs have a good shot at winning tonight. Though they got blitzed by the Lakers on Wednesday in overtime, they followed it up with a good win against Portland on Saturday. San Antonio plays at home, the Kings, while fun to watch and promising… let’s just say it hasn’t been their year.
Never thought I’d say it, but go Spurs!
Blazers at Nuggets, 8 p.m., League Pass
Have you been paying attention to this article so far? If so you know how the Wolves want this game to fall. It’s always hard to win in Denver, but man could the Wolves use an assist from the Blazers tonight.
Portland is fighting to hold off Utah for the No. 3 seed, so the Blazers will be zoned in, but they dropped all three games on their Texas road trip and haven’t looked as dominant as they did last month. However, there is the revenge game factor going in the Blazers’ favor. Jusuf Nurkic loves playing the Nuggets, and there’s a distinct possibility he destroys Nikola Jokic. Wolves fans should be rooting for that result.
Pelicans at Clippers, 9:30 p.m., ESPN
It was a good fight, but the Clippers are officially eliminated from playoff contention.
Now it’s their turn to play spoiler and do the Wolves a solid. There’s a very real possibility we end up with multiple teams with the same record at the end of the season. Such a result favors the Wolves, who have tiebreakers over every team they’re competing with except the Spurs (and Nuggets, which is still TBD). For the Wolves to move up, they need some New Orleans losses.
It seems like yesterday the Pelicans were almost out of the playoffs. Now they’re the No. 5 seed. Such is the nature of this year.
Wolves fans should be hoping the Clippers knock the Pelicans down a spot.