Joel Embiid and Nikola Jokic have established themselves as the league’s top two centers.
With just one week left in the regular season, we asked our stable of NBA analysts to predict who they think will emerge as the winners of the Kia Most Valuable Player, Rookie of the Year and Defensive Player of the Year awards, as well as who they think will be the Coach of the Year. Here’s how they responded:
Steve Aschburner
Most Valuable Player
Joel Embiid is my likely choice in a battle with layers of intrigue. First, can we agree that Embiid, Nikola Jokic and Giannis Antetokounmpo all have worthy statistical cases as MVP candidates? Then there’s the Greek Freak’s status as best player on best team, Jokic’s triple-double versatility as a center and Embiid’s second potential scoring title. To me, the Sixers center has had the heaviest lift. And since I voted for him last year, I’m counting on the other voters to get it right this time.
Rookie of the Year
Paolo Banchero has been the favorite almost all season for his work as Orlando’s centerpiece, while versatile Jalen Williams has climbed rung by rung to rank right behind him on the ever-popular Kia Rookie Ladder. This race is as close as it’s been since Opening Week, which means there is time for a flip. These final games will matter, with my ROY choice landing No. 1 in the April 12 edition of the Ladder.
Defensive Player of the Year
Brook Lopez or Jaren Jackson Jr. will get my vote. One of them almost certainly will walk off with the honor, in which voters annually have to compare rim protectors vs. perimeter defenders vs. outstanding “help” or combo guys. Each has impressive help: Lopez plays with Giannis Antetokounmpo and Jrue Holiday, Jackson has Dillon Brooks as Memphis’ on-ball irritant. The final Kia Defensive Ladder April 11 will have them 1-2 in some order.
Coach of the Year
Mike Brown is an easy choice for me. Breathing life into a moribund Sacramento franchise is a notable achievement, something eight non-interim coaches tried and failed to do in the 16 years since Rick Adelman led the Kings to their last postseason berth. OKC’s Mark Daigneault has been creative with his young group and Jacque Vaughn kept the Nets from cratering, but Brown has his team primed for more than just a toe-dip this spring.
Wright: Jokic, Embiid taking race down to the wire
Brian Martin
Most Valuable Player
While league-leading scorer Joel Embiid has a compelling case, Nikola Jokic is the pick to win his third straight MVP by combining another statistical masterpiece – 24.9 ppg (16th), 11.9 rpg (2nd), 9.9 apg (3rd, highest average by a center ever), 29 triple-doubles (1st, more than next three players combined) – with the team success that eluded him the past two seasons.
Rookie of the Year
Despite a late push by OKC’s Jalen Williams, Paolo Banchero has been the most consistent rookie throughout the season, leading all rookies in scoring (20 ppg), ranking fourth in rebounds (6.8 rpg) and third in assists (3.7 apg). He’s on pace to become the 11th rookie to average 20-6-3, joining stars like Luka Doncic, Blake Griffin, Michael Jordan and Larry Bird.
Defensive Player of the Year
Jaren Jackson Jr. will be the first player to average at least three blocks (league-high 3.1 bpg) and a steal (1.1 spg) in 15 seasons. Jackson is the league’s top rim protector, holding opponents to 46.7% shooting at the basket, but is versatile enough to cover players beyond the paint. He’s spent 19% of his matchups defending guards, holding them to 36% shooting.
Coach of the Year
In his first season in Sacramento, Mike Brown has changed the Kings’ culture and guided the team to a 17-win improvement over last season (30-52) with five games to play. Expected to contend for the Play-In Tournament, instead Sacramento has snapped the longest playoff drought in NBA history and will compete in the postseason for the first time in 17 years.
Shaun Powell
Most Valuable Player
Let us all agree on this — there’s no right or wrong answer. You say Nikola Jokic? Fine — he’s the most valuable player to his team, given how the Nuggets’ production falls off a cliff when he sits. You say Giannis Antetokounmpo? Fine — he’s the best two-way player in basketball. I say Joel Embiid? Yessir — he encompasses all of the above. That, and it’s his turn.
Rookie of the Year
I liken this to Usain Bolt sprinting from the starting blocks in the 100 meters, comfortably up seven steps on the nearest competitor halfway through the race, assumes he’s winning with 10 meters to go, and suddenly someone appears almost by his side at the finish. That’s Paolo Banchero with the win, Jalen Williams making him sweat.
Defensive Player of the Year
This award is tough to parse — do you go with the rim protector, or the perimeter defender, or the on-ball defender? It’s all over the place. I will say this is the year of the rim protector, and while Brook Lopez (not even the best defender on his team) is getting love, my choice is the Block Panther, Jaren Jackson Jr., the league leader in swats, who applies D on the perimeter, too.
Coach of the Year
Here’s a hint — he coaches the Kings. So you gotta crown him, right? Mike Brown gets this award for pointing that franchise in the right direction for a change. Actually, anyone who finally coached the Kings to the playoffs was a slam dunk for this award; it’s that significant of an achievement. What a great 10 months for Brown — wins a ring as an assistant with the Warriors, now has the Kings sitting higher than the defending champions in the standings.
Mike Brown instilling belief, connectivity in Sacramento
John Schuhmann
Most Valuable Player
Nikola Jokic. His boxscore numbers are down a little from last season, but otherwise, Jokic’s resume is stronger. The Nuggets have been a better team, he’s been more efficient, and his value to the Nuggets (in regard to how well they perform with him on the floor) is greater than ever. All that said, this race is closer than it was last season, and my vote might change by April 10.
Rookie of the Year
Paolo Banchero. Jalen Williams has a pretty good case with his team competing for a Play-In spot. But among rookies, Banchero has carried the heaviest load by a pretty wide margin and is just the third rookie in the past 28 years (Blake Griffin and Luka Doncic were the others) to average at least 18 points, six rebounds and three assists per game.
Defensive Player of the Year
Brook Lopez. This is a tough call. Jaren Jackson Jr. has had a had a huge impact on the Grizzlies’ defense, with Memphis having allowed 5.8 fewer points per 100 possessions with him on the floor than it has with him off. But through Friday, Lopez has played 616 more minutes and defended 882 more shots (league-high 1,698 vs. 816) than Jackson.
Coach of the Year
Mike Brown. The Kings rank as the league’s most improved team in regard to winning percentage and its the second-most improved team in regard to point differential per 100 possessions (+8.3). Most of the pieces were in place before Brown’s arrival (the Kings were 5-8 with De’Aaron Fox and Domantas Sabonis last season), and he’s completely turned the franchise around.
Paolo Banchero on challenges, development & belief 'we can beat anybody'
Michael C. Wright
Most Valuable Player
You’ll have to wait until April 14, when the final edition of our Kia Race to the MVP Ladder publishes. Joel Embiid seemed to own an edge over Nikola Jokic. But Philadelphia’s decision to hold out Embiid on Monday in Denver could come back to sink the big man’s MVP candidacy in a race coming down to a photo finish.
Rookie of the Year
Jalen Williams in Oklahoma City deserves a mention here along with Utah’s Walker Kessler, but Paolo Banchero is the leader of this year’s class. The No. 1 pick of the 2022 draft flashes consistency not often seen in a first-year player. He’s already either led Orlando in scoring or tied for the team lead in that category on 29 occasions.
Defensive Player of the Year
This one is close, but what separates the field from this vantage point is that Jaren Jackson Jr. is clearly the lynchpin of one of the league’s top defensive teams. Milwaukee’s Giannis Antetokounmpo deserves consideration along with Brook Lopez. But both Bucks lead a loaded squad that also features one of the league’s best perimeter defenders in Jrue Holiday.
Coach of the Year
Lots of great candidates here in Joe Mazzulla, Michael Malone, Taylor Jenkins and JB Bickerstaff. But let’s light the beam for Sacramento’s Mike Brown. Let’s not overthink this. It should be unanimous.
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