Rookie Chet Holmgren (7) and second-year forward Jalen Williams (8) are two of the young players making an impact in OKC.
Not surprisingly, there’s a negative correlation between a team’s winning percentage and how much it plays first or second-year players. Young teams are generally not good teams.
But some teams are both winning games and developing players at the same time, with one doing so at a rate we haven’t seen in (at least) the last 20 years.
1. The Thunder playing young and winning big
The Oklahoma City Thunder had the league’s second-youngest roster, older than only the San Antonio Spurs. Through Tuesday, the Thunder have gotten 43% of their minutes from rookies or second-year players, the league’s second-highest rate, lower than only that of the Portland Trail Blazers.
Highest percentage of minutes from rookies or second-year players, 2023-24
| Team | %Rookie | Rank | %2ndYear | Rank | %Ror2ndYr | PCT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portland | 30% | 1 | 19% | 6 | 49% | .279 |
| Oklahoma City | 24% | 2 | 19% | 7 | 43% | .698 |
| San Antonio | 10% | 8 | 30% | 1 | 41% | .186 |
| Utah | 10% | 9 | 25% | 2 | 36% | .489 |
| Detroit | 16% | 4 | 20% | 4 | 36% | .093 |
| Charlotte | 18% | 3 | 11% | 12 | 29% | .244 |
| Orlando | 8% | 12 | 20% | 5 | 27% | .523 |
| Houston | 7% | 13 | 18% | 8 | 25% | .476 |
| Memphis | 1% | 23 | 23% | 3 | 24% | .372 |
| Sacramento | 6% | 15 | 16% | 10 | 21% | .571 |
PCT = Winning percentage
Through Jan. 23, 2024
The other teams in the top six are no better than the 22-23 Utah Jazz, and four of those other five teams have four of the five worst records in the league. (The other bottom-five team, the Washington Wizards, rank just 16th in the percentage of their minutes — 14% — that have come from first or second-year players.)
Playing lots of first and second-year guys is supposed to pay off down the line. Below are the teams that ranked first, second, third, fifth and sixth in the percentage of their minutes that came from rookies or second-year players last season, and where how much of a jump they’ve seen in point differential per 100 possessions:
- Houston: 1st (61%), +8.4 (1st)
- Oklahoma City: 2nd (52%), +7.0 (2nd)
- Orlando: 3rd (38%), +2.7 (9th)
- New Orleans: 5th (34%), +3.3 (7th)
- Indiana: 6th (34%), +4.8 (5th)
Josh Giddey and Aaron Wiggins have graduated from the Thunder’s list of first and second-year guys, but OKC is second on the list for a second straight season and now tied for the league’s second best record (30-13), having seen the league’s biggest jump from last season. Over the last 20 seasons, the 2017-18 Philadelphia 76ers were the only team to get at least 40% of its minutes from rookies or second-year guys and win at least 60% of their games. Those Sixers (41%, sixth highest rate) finished 52-30, and the Thunder are on pace to win five more games than that.
Sixth-year guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the Thunder’s Kia MVP candidate. Still, three of the other five players who’ve played at least 900 minutes for the Thunder are rookies (Chet Holmgren and Cason Wallace) or second-year players (Jalen Williams). At the same time, Jaylin Williams (second-year) and Vasilije Micic (rookie) have also seen meaningful playing time. Plus, Jalen Williams hit two jumpers in the final 30 seconds on Tuesday to beat the Blazers.
Over the last 20 years, only 12 of the 100 teams that ranked in the top five in the percentage of their minutes from rookies or second-year players made the playoffs. Only three of those 12 won a series, with the last of those being the 2012-13 Warriors (Harrison Barnes, Festus Ezeli, Draymond Green and Klay Thompson), who won a series as the No. 6 seed in the West.
Rank in % of minutes from rookies or 2nd-year players vs. postseason success, last 20 seasons
| Rank | Playoffs | Conf. semis | Conf. finals | Finals | Champ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-5 | 12 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 6-10 | 38 | 13 | 6 | 2 | 1 |
| 11-15 | 50 | 21 | 5 | 2 | 1 |
| 16-20 | 57 | 27 | 11 | 3 | 1 |
| 21-25 | 72 | 44 | 23 | 14 | 6 |
| 26-30 | 91 | 52 | 34 | 19 | 11 |
2003-04 through 2022-23
The only team in the last 20 years to win two playoff series after ranking in the top five in the percentage of their minutes coming from first or second-year players was the 2004-05 Miami Heat (28%, fifth), who were the No. 1 seed in the East with second-year players Udonis Haslem and Dwyane Wade each playing more than 2,600 minutes. They also had a pretty good 13th-year center named Shaquille O’Neal, but lost in the conference finals to the Detroit Pistons (7%, 25th).
The Thunder (who also ranked second in first-or-second-year percentage last season) still have 39 games to play before they can worry about the playoffs, but they only have two weeks to make a trade if they want to increase their chances of postseason success.
Having just escaped with a win over the only team that ranks higher than them in rookie-and-second-year percentage, the Thunder will now play the team that ranks third. They begin a three-game trip in San Antonio on Wednesday (9:30 p.m. ET, ESPN).
2. The Suns are all in
Of the last 20 teams to win the championship, 17 of them ranked in the bottom 10 in the percentage of regular season minutes they got from rookies or second-year players. The exceptions were. …
- The 2003-04 Pistons: 22% (12th), including 841 and 682 minutes from sophomores Tayshaun Prince and Mehmet Okur.
- The 2007-08 Celtics: 21% (eighth), including 2,305 and 809 minutes from sophomores Rajon Rondo and Leon Powe and 940 minutes from rookie Glen Davis.
- The 2017-18 Warriors: 13% (20th), including 961 and 741 minutes from sophomores Patrick McCaw and Quinn Cook, as well as 809 minutes from rookie Jordan Bell.
The bottom of this season’s list is a reminder that the Phoenix Suns are all in for a title. The Suns don’t have a single first or second-year player on their roster, they’ve traded all their recent Draft picks (including Toumani Camara to Portland in the Jusuf Nurkic trade in September), and they’re using their two-way contracts on fourth-year players Udoka Azubuike, Saben Lee and Theo Maledon.
As it stands, the Suns would be the first team to get zero minutes from rookies or second-year players since the 2009-10 Lakers, who won the championship.
Fewest minutes from rookies or second-year players, 2023-24
| Team | Rookie | 2nd Year | Total | %Ror2ndYr | PCT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Phoenix | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | .581 |
| New York | 6 | 0 | 6 | 0% | .614 |
| Boston | 6 | 6 | 12 | 0% | .773 |
| Philadelphia | 15 | 5 | 20 | 0% | .690 |
| Minnesota | 19 | 76 | 95 | 1% | .698 |
| Brooklyn | 155 | 0 | 155 | 1% | .395 |
| Atlanta | 57 | 129 | 186 | 2% | .419 |
| LA Clippers | 267 | 58 | 325 | 3% | .667 |
| Chicago | 113 | 292 | 405 | 4% | .467 |
| Toronto | 295 | 176 | 471 | 4% | .364 |
Through Jan. 23, 2024
(Not a great look for the Brooklyn Nets, who don’t have their Draft pick this year. They have the Suns’ pick, but …)
The Suns have had a disappointing season given their star power, but their three stars were all available for only four of their 35 games. They’ve played together in each of their last eight and the Suns have won six straight to climb into the top six in the West.
They’re about to take that winnings streak on the road, beginning a seven-game trip with a big game in Dallas on Wednesday (8:30 p.m. ET, ABC).
* * *
John Schuhmann is a senior stats analyst for NBA.com. You can e-mail him here, find his archive here and follow him on X.
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