Miami and Milwaukee meet in Game 4 of its first-round series Monday night at 7:30 ET.
I’m super excited about this slate, and we have two critical Game 4s to discuss. The Miami-Milwaukee series has been a shock so far, but it would be tough to bet against the Bucks if they return home with a 2-2 series. The Los Angeles-Memphis series has been one of the most exciting as well, so let’s get into it!
Injury Report
As of 11:30 a.m. ET:
- Giannis Antetokounmpo (back) Questionable
- Tyler Herro (hand) OUT
- Victor Oladipo (knee) OUT
- Brandon Clarke (Achilles) OUT
- Steven Adams (knee) OUT
- Jimmy Butler (leg) Questionable
- Dennis Schroder (foot) Probable
- Anthony Davis (foot) Probable
- LeBron James (foot) Probable
Core Plays
Anthony Davis (PF/C – LAL): $10,000 DraftKings, $12,000 FanDuel
A superstar like this should never have a $2,000 discrepancy, especially with how AD is performing right now. The All-Star has scored at least 50 DraftKings points in nine of his last 11 games, generating a 57-point average in that span. He’s also excelled against Memphis throughout the year, scoring at least 62 DK points in four of their five meetings. That’s no surprise since the Grizzlies are missing Adams and Clarke.
Ja Morant (PG – MEM): $9,600 DraftKings, $10,500 FanDuel
We weren’t so sure how Morant would look with his hand issue, but his 45 points, nine rebounds, and 13 assists in Game 4 have us excited. Those 79 DraftKings points marked one of the best outings of his career, and we have to assume Ja will be locked in as ever with the Grizzlies looking at a 2-1 deficit in the series. It’s not shocking since LA owns a 26th OPRK against opposing guards, with Morant maintaining a 54-point average against them this year.
Cash Game Considerations
Jimmy Butler (SF/PF – MIA): $9,400 DraftKings, $9,600 FanDuel
Butler put on a show in Game 3. The perennial All-Star finished that gem with 47 DraftKings points, despite sitting in the fourth quarter. That’s not far off of his recent form, with Butler averaging 46 DK points per game across his last 24 outings. What we love about him in these playoffs is that he’s more locked in than ever, playing 40-45 minutes a game.
Jaren Jackson Jr.(PF/C – MEM): $8,200 DraftKings, $8,500 FanDuel
It’s strange to call Jackson Jr. a cash game option, but that’s what he is in this sort of role. The Defensive Player of the Year was one of the best per-minute producers in the regular season and is now playing 40 minutes a game in these playoffs. That bump is no surprise since Adams and Clarke are both out, with Jackson scoring at least 36 fantasy points in 13 of his last 16 games. He’s also got a 44-point average in that span and could be looking at a season-high in minutes in this must-win game.
GPP Targets
D’Angelo Russell (PG/SG – MIN): $5,800 DraftKings, $6,300 FanDuel
This guy is too good to be sitting around $6,000. This point guard has scored at least 35 DK points in two of three games in this series, which is right on par with his 34-point average in the regular season. All of that makes the pricing hard to understand, especially since D-Lo is averaging 32 DK points per game in six matchups with Memphis.
Kyle Lowry (PG – MIA): $4,900 DraftKings, $4,500 FanDuel
The Playoffs are the time for veterans to thrive. Lowry has made a career of being a great postseason player, and it looks like Miami will lean on him with Herro and Oladipo both injured. That allowed Lowry to play 28 minutes in Game 3, scoring 25 DK points in that expanded role. He also had 49 fantasy points in a play-in game, and it’s hard to believe he’s sitting below $5K with so much in his favor. It’s risky, but Lowry is the best GPP play below $5,000.
Value Plays
Brook Lopez (C – MIL): $6,100 DraftKings, $7,300 FanDuel
Lopez has struggled in this series, but he’s tough to fade around $6,000. The big man has a bounce-back season with 32 DK points per game, regularly sitting above $7K on both sites. That’s awesome since he should see an expanded role here, locked into 35 minutes and 15-20 shots in this must-win game. We’ve also seen Lopez score at least 35 fantasy points in three of his last five outings, and Milwaukee needs another one of those here.
Dillon Brooks (SG/SF – MEM): $4,700 DraftKings, $5,100 FanDuel
Brooks is still playing a huge role for the Grizzlies, playing 35 minutes while taking double-digit shots. There aren’t many $5K players with that sort of role, especially ones that averaged 25 DK points per game in the regular season. We’re going to bet on a bounce-back game against a 24th-ranked Lakers defense.
Advantageous Pricing
Anthony Davis (PF/C – LAL): $10,000 DraftKings, $12,000 FanDuel
Ja Morant (PG – MEM): $9,600 DraftKings, $10,500 FanDuel
Brook Lopez (C – MIL): $6,100 DraftKings, $7,300 FanDuel
Giannis Antetokounmpo (PF – MIL): $10,400 DraftKings, $11,900 FanDuel
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Joel Bartilotta is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Joel, check out his archive and follow him @Bartilottajoel.
