We’re a week away from the start of the NBA season and with fantasy basketball draft season in full swing, here are three guard sleepers being taken after pick 100 that will exceed their ADP this season.
Tre Jones, San Antonio Spurs — Yahoo Fantasy ADP 104.0
Jones enters his third NBA season as the starting point guard for the Spurs. A preseason injury to Josh Primo likely helped, but Jones is a player I’ve been targeting since Dejounte Murray was dealt. The Spurs lack backcourt depth, and I’m projecting his usage rate to climb to at least 20% this year. In 11 games as a starter last season, he averaged 13.5 points on 48% shooting, plus 4.6 rebounds, 7.5 assists and one steal in 32.6 minutes per game. While he’s definitely not Murray, he’ll be efficient (high field goal percentage, low turnover rate) and an excellent source of assists for fantasy managers this season. If you elect to wait on point guard or you’re looking to bolster guard depth, he’ll be one of the best value picks of the ninth round.
Monte Morris, Washington Wizards — Yahoo Fantasy ADP 118.6
The unheralded veteran point guard put up career highs in almost every category in his first season as a full-time starter for the Denver Nuggets. He’s going in the 10th round after finishing 74th in per-game value. That’s a bridge too far, leaving Morris vastly undervalued in the market. He was traded to the Wizards this offseason, but all signs point to him having an opportunity to build off of last year’s solid campaign. Similar to Tre Jones, Morris is an efficient scorer (48% for his career) with a low turnover rate (fifth-lowest in the NBA last season) — rare traits for point guards in fantasy, especially deep in drafts. I’m projecting his assist numbers to peak over 5.0 per game as he’s surrounded by proven scorers Bradley Beal, Kristaps Porzingis and Kyle Kuzma. He hits 3-pointers (unlike Tre Jones), is stellar from the line and will get at least a steal per game.
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Ayo Dosunmu, Chicago Bulls — Yahoo Fantasy ADP 141.6
Lonzo Ball will miss significant time as he recovers from arthroscopic knee surgery. Alex Caruso is being drafted ahead of Ayo Dosunmu (116 versus 141, respectively) and while I don’t think that’s necessarily wrong, I’d rather draft the starter instead of the presumed sixth man in Caruso. Caruso is a steals specialist, but Dosunmu will get more minutes and provide more cross-categorical appeal in fantasy. He started 40 games in the absence of Ball last season and averaged a solid 10.9 points, 3.6 rebounds, 5.4 assists, 1.0 threes, and 1.1 steals on 53% shooting from the field. He’ll be entering his second NBA season and he’s already shown growth in the preseason. Non-fantasy-wise, his plus/minus is +32 through two preseason games, and he’s racked up an average of 2.0 stocks and 2.0 triples per contest. Despite being the fourth option for the Bulls’ offense, he’s still a late-round sleeper that will help fantasy managers right now.