2024 NBA Draft

Consensus Mock Draft: Alex Sarr emerges atop field after Lottery

With the Hawks nabbing the No. 1 overall pick, and the Draft order set, a trio of international prospects lead the way.

Ben Couch, NBA.com

Updated on May 17, 2024 3:18 PM

Deputy Commissioner Mark Tatum reveals the top 4 picks at the 2024 NBA Draft Lottery presented by State Farm.

• Complete 2024 NBA Draft order

Some notes in our first look at the mock drafts from around the web before the 2024 NBA Draft presented by State Farm, where the the Atlanta Hawks are on the clock with the No. 1 pick.

Remember, the Consensus Mock Draft is a compilation of the best mock drafts around the web. We bring them together to provide a solid estimate of how the Draft could play out (Last update: May 12, 10:28 p.m. ET):

With the Atlanta Hawks making a surprise leap from the 10th slot (3.00% odds!) to No. 1 overall, a … consensus has quickly emerged around French prospect Alexandre Sarr. Nine of the 10 mocks we track have updated following the lottery results, and with the 2024 Draft order official, Sarr sits in pole position across all 10.
Be ready to brush up on your French, not only since it’s an Olympic summer à Paris, but also one that could feature three prospects from the tournament hosts: Sarr is joined on the mock boards by Zaccharie Risacher (projected top 3) and Tidjane Salaun (low lottery).
The University of Connecticut has delivered back-to-back NCAA men’s basketball Tournament championships, and since deep runs often boost Draft stock, it’s no surprise Huskies Donovan Clingan and Stephon Castle are looking like high lottery picks in the early going.
Though John Calipari shockingly left Kentucky to coach Arkansas, another pair of likely Wildcats-turned-lottery selections trail in his wake: SEC Freshman of the Year Reed Sheppard and Robert Dillingham. The record says expect a pair of productive NBA players. Time will tell if Coach Cal can start sending Razorbacks up the Draft boards.
G League Ignite has closed up shop after a tough season, but delivers a pair of lottery-level prospects: versatile forward Matas Buzelis and swingman Ron Holland, each of whom earned prior looks at the top of the class.
The biggest shift from the pre-lottery mocks is the consolidation of Sarr, Risacher and Serbian prospect Nikola Topic, who are running well ahead of the pack for the top 3 slots. The next five players: Sheppard, Clingan, Castle, Buzelis and Dillingham are all bunched by the rankings due to a wild variance in positioning — outside of Buzelis, whom six draftniks have tabbed as a potential Pistons pick to complement Cade Cunningham and Jaden Ivey.
To note, Clingan, Sheppard and Castle each appear second on one board, yet drop as low as 9th (Clingan, Sheppard) or 10th (Castle), hitting most every rung on the way between them.
A total of 10 players appear in the lottery in all 10 mocks we survey: Alex Sarr, Zaccharie Risacher, Reed Sheppard, Nikola Topic, Donovan Clingan, Stephon Castle, Matas Buzelis, Robert Dillingham, Dalton Knecht and Cody Williams.

MOST COMMON PICKS

No. 1 (Hawks): Alex Sarr (10)

No. 2 (Wizards): Zaccharie Risacher (4)

No. 3 (Rockets): Reed Sheppard (3)

No. 4 (Spurs): Nikola Topic (4)

No. 5 (Pistons): Matas Buzelis (5)

No. 6 (Hornets): Stephon Castle (4)

No. 7 (Trail Blazers): Donovan Clingan, Dalton Knecht (2)

No. 8 (Spurs): Robert Dillingham (3)

No. 9 (Grizzlies): Ron Holland (3)

No. 10 (Jazz): Dalton Knecht (3)

No. 11 (Bulls): Isaiah Collier (4)

No. 12 (Thunder): Ja’Kobe Walter, Cody Williams (2)

No. 13 (Kings): Isaiah Collier, Jared McCain, Cody Williams (2)

No. 14 (Trail Blazers): Tidjane Salaun (5)

Most common (above): Pick at which the player is most commonly projected, with number of mock drafts in parentheses. For example, Alex Sarr is projected to go 1st in 10 of the 10 mock drafts listed below.

Top 14 (below): To calculate the consensus, we award 14 points for every mock draft in which the player went first overall, 13 for second, continuing to one point for the final lottery pick. The player with the highest point total represents the top overall selection, which is as follows:

1. Alexandre Sarr | Atlanta Hawks

Perth Wildcats (Australia) | Position: F/C | Height: 7-1
Status: International
Most Common: 1 (10)

An impact player on defense who’s been growing into a larger role at the other end. Should offer immediate complementary help with the potential for more.

2. Zaccharie Risacher | Washington Wizards

JL Bourg-en-Bresse (France) | Position: G/F | Height: 6-8
Status: International
Most Common: 2 (4)

Looks the part and has all the two-way ability to deliver on that potential. The floor is high, but so is the ceiling. What will he reach?

3. Nikola Topic | Houston Rockets

KK Crvena Zvezda (Serbia) | Position: G | Height: 6-6
Status: International
Most Common: 4 (4)

A tall guard with a deft passing touch and the ability to create opportunities for himself and others, the upside play here is a bet that the outside shot comes around.

4. Reed Sheppard | San Antonio Spurs

Kentucky | Position: G | Height: 6-3
Status: Freshman
Most Common: 3 (3)

Sharpshooting and award-winning freshman for the Wildcats, who elevated right on up the Draft boards, especially given the open field.

5. Donovan Clingan | Detroit Pistons

Connecticut | Position: C | Height: 7-2
Status: Sophomore
Most Common: 3 (2)

A defensive anchor for the back-to-back NCAA champs, and should provide a steadying presence once he’s adjusted to the pro game. The offensive potential is there.

6. Stephon Castle | Charlotte Hornets

Connecticut | Position: G | Height: 6-6
Status: Freshman
Most Common: 6 (4)

Will do what needs to be done, whatever it is, whichever end of the floor. A move on the ball could unlock another level.

7. Matas Buzelis | Portland Trail Blazers

G League Ignite | Position: F | Height: 6-8
Status: G League
Most Common: 5 (6)

Big forward with a shooting touch that escaped him in a single season playing for Ignite. Its return could deliver a big win later than expected in this Draft.

8. Robert Dillingham | San Antonio Spurs

Kentucky | Position: G | Height: 6-3
Status: Freshman
Most Common: 4 (2), 8 (2)

The shooting is there, and he’s a certified bucket. But the size limitations kick in when playmaking isn’t the thing, which means adjust or overcome.

9. Ron Holland | Memphis Grizzlies

G League Ignite | Position: F | Height: 6-6
Status: G League
Most Common: 9 (3)

Athletic and explosive swingman who held his own in the G League, even as turnover problems and shooting woes put a cap on his game.

10. Dalton Knecht | Utah Jazz

Tennessee | Position: G/F | Height: 6-6
Status: Senior
Most Common: 10 (3)

Capitalized on a transfer to Tennessee, putting up 25-plus points while scoring all kinds of ways, but especially from deep. The seasoned transition could be smoother than most.

11. Cody Williams | Chicago Bulls

Colorado | Position: F | Height: 6-9
Status: Freshman
Most Common: 10 (2), 12 (2), 13 (2)

Has the game and physique to cleanly fit most styles, and all it takes is one team to believe the upside is real for a surprise shot up the board.

12. Isaiah Collier | Oklahoma City Thunder

USC | Position: G | Height: 6-5
Status: Freshman
Most Common: 11 (4)

Bringing all his size to bear on the ball, Collier could well bully his way to a productive early run off the bench. If the turnovers go down and the percentages go up, it’s go time.

13. Ja’Kobe Walter | Sacramento Kings

Baylor | Position: G/F | Height: 6-5
Status: Freshman
Most Common: 12 (2)

The shooting and defensive potential are there, and there’s a knack for finding ways to the line. Quick contributions could come, and playmaking might follow with time.

14. Tidjane Salaun | Portland Trail Blazers

Cholet Basket | Position: F | Height: 6-9
Status: International
Most Common: 14 (5)

Raw 18-year-old projects as a rangy, switchable defender who can capitalize on strong off-ball instincts and a developing shot from range.

MOCK DRAFTS