Is a Play-In Tournament berth in the cards for living legends Stephen Curry and LeBron James?
There is only one more calendar flip before the checkered flag is waved and the 2023-24 NBA regular season officially becomes a wrap. And much like every season before, this one has had its usual share of surprises, disappointments, drama and sharp turns.
Here are 10 takeaways from around the league heading into the stretch run:
1. Celtics are the “beast” (regular season) team
The sheer dominance of the Celtics is a sight to behold. They’ve beaten the Warriors by 52, Pacers by 51, Clippers by 37, Heat by 33, Mavs by 28 and Kings by 25. They’re 4-0 against the Knicks and nearly spotless at home (29-3 through Sunday).
Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown are All-Stars, Kristaps Porzingis has been healthy for the most part and Derrick White a massive help in support. The combination of star power and depth is unmatched, and a huge reason why they lead the league in point differential.
It’s championship or bust for this team, and in that sense, three will soon be under the ‘scope for how they’ll respond: Tatum, Brown and coach Joe Mazulla.
2. Two legends (maybe three!) seem bound for Play-In
The most heightened suspense right now lies with the West playoff positioning and in particular, the race to make (or avoid) the So-Fi Play-In Tournament.
It’s dramatic because it involves, for the moment, Stephen Curry and LeBron James, who have been in this position before (2021, the Lakers moved on). Except now there’s a higher urgency given the fragile state of the Los Angeles Lakers and Golden State Warriors and what might await the loser come summer.
And if the Phoenix Suns — who have the toughest remaining schedule in the NBA — falter down the stretch, add Kevin Durant to the mix. Did we mention drama?
3. Heat are in a familiar spot
The Heat are teetering on the guaranteed playoff cutoff. They haven’t shown much flex all season and will surrender home-court advantage to the East powerhouses assuming they make the playoffs.
In other words, same-old. For those sweating the Heat right now, remember that Jimmy Butler and friends survived the Play-In last season and found themselves in the NBA Finals at the expense of the Bucks and Celtics.
The Team Nobody Wants To See in the East playoffs is busy trying to be underestimated again.
4. Don’t expect a Wolves collapse
They’ve either occupied first place or been within a game of first in the West since Nov. 19. That staying power dismisses any notion of being a fluke. They won 42 games last season and should improve by 10-plus this year.
They’re hardly flawless, but what they do, they do well. Anthony Edwards and Karl-Anthony Towns plus the league’s top-rated defense and good health is a recipe for success … and maybe a No. 1 seed. Whether the Wolves will go deep into the postseason, however, is another question.
5. Rough going in Memphis
We don’t need the remaining month to conclude the obvious: 2023-24 has been a stark reversal of fortune for the Grizzlies. They won 51 games last season and might have declined by 25 games or more when this one’s done.
This underlines the importance of superstars to their teams (as if there was any doubt about that). Ja Morant losing games to suspension and injury was crippling. The season now belongs to youngsters and rookie GG Jackson is a revelation. But they just dropped two at home to Portland, one of which was by 30 points.
6. Was demise of Bucks exaggerated?
Milwaukee has endured two crisis points — early in the season when their defense turned to dust, and for about a week after Doc Rivers was hired. Three, if you count their collapse in the In-Season Tournament semis.
Yet with just over a month left in the season, we find the Bucks in step with projections. Also, it’s much quieter now under Rivers. And after a bumpy introduction, Damian Lillard is fitting in.
The lesson: This team should be judged by the playoffs and playoffs only. So let’s all pause until then.
7. Wizards need the biggest rebuild
Remember when, for about three months, this dishonorable mention belonged to the Detroit Pistons? Since then, very stealthily (and certainly regrettably in Washington) the Wizards have become the (slightly/arguably) Team At The Bottom.
At least the Pistons have a few long-term keepers. The Wizards appear ripe for a major overhaul and there’s probably not a future All-Star on the roster or anyone who will command a max contract.
The “good” news is they’re headed for a bottom-three finish and highest odds at the No. 1 pick.
8. Jokic closing in on third Kia MVP
This is partly by default because of Joel Embiid’s injury and subsequent ineligibility under the new 65-game rule. That adds another chapter to the two centers’ dramatic MVP race over the last three years.
But this isn’t to shortchange “The Joker,” or to insinuate he isn’t worthy this time. His numbers and impact are roughly the same as his previous MVP years. It’s a wrap. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jayson Tatum should be the other finalists.
9. Spurs add a generational talent and more losses
It’s truly the biggest mystery of the season: Why are the Spurs, after welcoming Victor Wembanyama, struggling more this season than last?
The results don’t lie, and the Spurs are on pace to finish below the 22-win total from 2022-23 despite not dealing with a crippling injury. And, they still have coach Gregg Popovich. But poor defense, rebounding and lack of a creator will follow them hauntingly into Game 82.
10. Are Knicks truly improved?
The East’s No. 5 seed is led by Jalen Brunson’s star turn, subscribes to the defensive gospel according to coach Tom Thibodeau and is an easy team for New Yorkers to love.
But didn’t the Knicks finish in the East’s top five last season? And they won a first-round series, right? So where exactly is this massive leap that supposedly has the league on alert?
You can understand the excitement of a fan base that hasn’t seen a championship in five decades, but let’s take the pulse of the club when Julius Randle and OG Anunoby are healthy and, most importantly, come May — if the Knicks make it that far and, you know, actually show improvement.
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Shaun Powell has covered the NBA for more than 25 years. You can e-mail him here, find his archive here and follow him on X.
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