Warriors vs. Lakers Game 4: Don't Count Out Golden State

Warriors vs. Lakers Odds

Warriors Odds	+3
Lakers Odds	-3
Over/Under	227.5 (-110 / -110)
Time	10 p.m. ET
TV	TNT
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NBA odds here.

Despite playing in front of a Hollywood crowd, there hasn’t been much drama between the Warriors and Lakers in their Conference Semifinal showdown as both teams have traded blowouts over the last two games. After dropping Game 2 by 27 points, the Lakers rebounded on their home floor to dominate the Warriors 127-97 in Game 3.

Both teams have contrasting styles of play, so it’s important for each to establish and dictate the game. The Warriors were unable to match the Lakers’ physicality and size in Game 3. They also couldn’t stop L.A. from getting to the free-throw line; the disparity at the stripe was 37-17 in favor of the Lakers.

Golden State appears to be in trouble, but its been resilient in the past. The Warriors were down 2-1 to the Kings in the first round and in last season’s NBA Finals against the Celtics.

Here’s a preview of Warriors vs. Lakers Game 4, plus my betting pick on the spread.

The Warriors have been a completely different team away from the Chase Center this season — they are 13-33 straight up and 14-32 against the spread (ATS) on the road. Their Net Rating on the road ranked 23rd in the regular season, per NBA Advanced Stats.

On the other hand, the Warriors are resilient, especially in the playoffs. Since the 2012-13 season, the Warriors are 30-14 ATS (68.2%), per Killer Sports. Those games have gone 32-10-2 (76.2%) to the under. When the Warriors are behind in a series, that record improves to 16-4 ATS and to the under.

After bombing away from behind the arc in the first two games, Golden State flamed out in Game 3 with a 13-for-44 3-point shooting performance (compared to 42-for-95 in the first two games). The Lakers did an excellent job defending the three, but I expect the Warriors to look better in Game 4, especially after poor performances from Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson.

The free-throw difference has been a big story — the Lakers benefitted from 37 free throws compared to 17 for the Warriors in Game 3. I think the Lakers get a less favorable whistle in Game 4, which could allow the Warriors to dictate play.

Draymond Green should be able to play his brand of basketball while Kevon Looney could be on the mend after two additional days of rest to recover from an illness.

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In the midst of a seven-game home winning streak, the Lakers have covered four consecutive games at Crypto.com Arena. This is quite the contrast to the Warriors’ awful road performances.

D’Angelo Russell, who’s been a bit of a wild card in the postseason, showed up in a big way in Game 3. He set the tone in the first half and finished with 21 points and five 3-pointers. The Lakers hit 15 3-pointers in total, which is only the third time they’ve hit that mark in the playoffs.

The big question with the Lakers: Which version of Anthony Davis will show up?

The running trend is that he alternates good and bad performances, and that proved to be the case in Game 3.  He looked unstoppable in Game 1, was ineffective in Game 2 and bounced back in Game 3 with 25 points, 13 rebounds and 7 “stocks” (steals and blocks).

If that continues, Davis is in for tough night. He led all players in minutes in Game 3, so fatigue could potentially be an issue.

Warriors-Lakers Pick

I think the Warriors bounce back as they have done time and time again. All their key players were embarrassed by their last game and I anticipate an inspired effort on Monday.

Things went too well for the Lakers in Game 3, and I don’t expect the same success from the 3-point line nor do I expect such a favorable whistle from the refs.

I backed the Warriors last game and I was completely wrong. I still make the line Lakers -1, so I am running it back with the Warriors to cover the spread.