We split Saturday’s picks as Tyus Jones easily got over his assists prop, but Kyrie Irving was involved in a surprise blowout and couldn’t get there in time. Now Sunday night features a six-game slate loaded with options — there are two props that intrigued me and both players featured are in great spot.
We’ll be using the Action Labs Player Prop tool to compare our NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks. Below, I have laid out two prop bets that I’m playing, the case for each bet and the best books to find odds on those player props.
Let’s dive in!
NBA Player Props & Picks
Patrick Beverley Over 3.5 Assists (-115)
|Celtics vs. Timberwolves||Celtics -6|
|Time||6 p.m. ET|
The Timberwolves have been one of the best teams since the All-Star break with a record of 12-4. They have a tough test on the road against the Celtics this Sunday as 6-point underdogs implied for only 111.75 points.
The Celtics lead the league in defensive rating, allowing an NBA-best 103.8 points per game. This is a tough spot to target the Timberwolves offense, but Patrick Beverley assists prop is one of the best values in our model tonight.
If you take out the game that Beverley got hurt and the game that he got ejected within 10 minutes, he has been playing very well over those nine games. Over that time, he is averaging 5.4 assists per game.
The minutes for Beverley have also been a nice added bonus and should increase now that Malik Beasley is out. He is averaging 27.1 minutes per game over that nine-game stretch, which is in line with a few other Minnesota starters. He has been playing very well in his additional minutes.
Our model has Beverley projected to get 5.6 assists, which is much better than this 3.5 prop line. I would consider taking this line at 4.5 to maybe get some juice. This is a good line despite the Timberwolves being underdogs.
Spencer Dinwiddie Over 3.5 Assists (-105)
|Mavericks vs. Jazz||Jazz -1|
|Time||7:30 p.m. ET|
The Mavericks are right in the middle of a playoff race in the Western Conference for seeds four through seven. They have lost three of their last four games and are slight home underdogs against the Jazz, who are also in that same playoff race.
This is a massive game for playoff positioning.
Another assist prop that is popping in our model is Spencer Dinwiddie over 3.5 assists. He has recorded 4.1 assists per game in his last seven games. During that stretch, he has had four or more assists in four of those seven games.
The downside of this game is the Jazz and Mavericks both play extremely slow. The Jazz rank 23rd in pace while the Mavericks rank last. The total is the lowest on the slate at 214 points. Similar to Beverley, despite this game not being very appealing, this a good assist prop to target for Dinwiddie tonight.
Another assist prop that is showing well in our model is Jalen Brunson, who is on the same team. He has a little bit of juice on his over 3.5 assists, but hasn’t been nearly as good as Dinwiddie when it comes to hitting it. Both guards are great value. Dinwiddie is projected for 5.5 assists while Brunson is 5.1 assists.
I definitely prefer Dinwiddie over Brunson, but I would hesitate taking these props at 4.5 or more due to the matchup that the Mavericks have. However, the value on 3.5 — and seeing as our model loves these two — has me very interested in taking these Mavericks guards not named Luka Doncic.