Let’s start the weekend off right with these three points props. There’s a lot of value on these props with players who are all in really good spots.
We’ll be using the Action Labs Player Prop tool to compare our NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks. Below, I have laid out three prop bets that I’m playing, the case for each bet and the best books to find odds on those player props.
Let’s dive in.
NBA Player Props & Picks
Tyrese Maxey, Over 15.5 Points (+100)
|Heat vs. 76ers||Heat -2.5|
|Time | TV||8 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass|
The Philadelphia 76ers are one of the hottest teams in the league.
They have won eight of their last nine games, and a big reason why is obviously Joel Embiid. However, the addition of Tyrese Maxey certainly helps.
Maxey has been in and out of the lineup recently due to injury and COVID-19 protocols.
When Maxey is in the lineup, he plays huge minutes. Since returning, Maxey has played 38 minutes in back-to-back games and is projected to play 38 minutes again tonight. He averages 34.8 minutes per game this season.
Maxey struggled to find his shot in his first game back but really flourished in his most recent game. In his last game, Maxey scored 23 points while shooting 8-for-16 from the field and 5-for-7 from behind the arc. This matchup against the Heat is pretty difficult with the total set as the second-lowest on the board at 210 points.
However, our Action Labs Player Prop model absolutely loves all of Maxey’s over props today. The best value by far is on his points prop at even money. We
have Maxey projected to score 20 points tonight, which gives him one of the best values on the board. I would take this up to 21.5 points.
DeMar DeRozan, Over 26.5 Points (-105)
|Celtics vs. Bulls||Celtics -6|
|Time | TV||8:30 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass|
What happened to the Chicago Bulls? They are coming off of back-to-back home drubbings. They lost to the Brooklyn Nets, 138-112, and then lost to the Golden State Warriors, 138-96, without Draymond Green and Klay Thompson.
Both are very good opponents, but the results playing at home were surprising. They now travel to face the Boston Celtics where as 6-point road underdogs playing without Zach LaVine and Alex Caruso. Lonzo Ball is also listed as questionable.
That means the Bulls will need everything from DeMar DeRozan.
Using our FantasyLabs On/Off tool with LaVine and Caruso off the floor this season, DeRozan has a usage increase of +8.6%, which is by far the highest on the Bulls. He continues to lead the Bulls in scoring, averaging 25.7 points per game. That’s the second-highest point total of his career.
This is a great matchup specific to DeRozan. The Celtics allow the second-most field goal makes between 15-19 feet while also allowing the fifth-most attempts between 10-14 feet. This is where DeRozan thrives. He leads the league in most makes per game between 15-19 feet and is second to Kevin Durant in makes between 10-14 feet. DeRozan will feast in the mid-range.
DeRozan is proving to be a fantastic addition to this Bulls team. With all of these guards out tonight, DeRozan will need to keep Chicago in this game.
This feels like great value, and I would take this up to 27.5 points.
LeBron James, Over 30.5 Points (+100)
|Nuggets vs. Lakers||Nuggets -4|
|Time | TV||9 p.m. ET | NBA TV|
Oh shoot, here we go again. A LeBron James over points prop at even money.
This has been the most profitable bet lately, as James has scored 31 or more points in 12 of his last 13 games. Let’s bet he keeps the train rolling.
This matchup against the Nuggets features the second-highest total on the slate at 224.5 points. The Lakers are implied to score 110.25 points.
The Lakers will continue to lean on James to score the basketball as Anthony Davis is still not back yet. He’s likely to come back at the end of January, so we need to take advantage of these LeBron props while we still can.
In 15 games without Davis this season, James is averaging 34.1 points while shooting 55.4% from the field and 39.8% from downtown. He has also increased his usage rate from 28.7% to 33.2% per game.
James has played at an elite level lately, and this prop has hit at a 92.3% rate in his last 13 games.
Always make sure to shop around for the best value, but DraftKings has by far the best value on this James points prop at even money.
I would take this up to 31.5 points, but I doubt it will get that high. If you add all three of these props into a parlay tonight, the odds are +680 — a pretty good value.