Mystics vs. Liberty Game 1: Can the Mystics Pull Another Upset?

Action Network's Staff previews the betting trends for today's WNBA playoff matchup between the Mystics and Liberty.

Mystics vs. Liberty Odds

Friday, Sept. 15
7:30 p.m. ET
Mystics Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
-110 / -110
Liberty Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
-110 / -110
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute WNBA odds here.

The Washington Mystics closed out their season with a thrilling game-winner against the New York Liberty Sunday. Now these two teams will face off in the first round with Game 1 of the series tipping at Barclays Center.

The Liberty have consistently been the second-best team in the WNBA and the Mystics entered the season with the third-best odds to win the championship. Can Washington make a statement in the opener?

Here’s a look at the notable trends for each team, along with analysis and a pick from our Action Network contributors.

Washington Mystics

The Mystics finished the season 19-21 against the spread this season, but covered six of their final 10 games down the stretch. However, they were awful on the road, going 7-13 ATS in road games — only the Phoenix Mercury were worse.

One thing positive for the Mystics? They played well against good teams at the tail end of the season, covering four straight games as underdogs against teams at or above .500 in late August and September. They even won two of those games outright — a 78-62 win against the Las Vegas Aces and the aforementioned stunner against the Liberty in their final regular season game.

New York Liberty

The Liberty have been awesome overall, but not a team bettors could rely on as a massive favorite nearly every night. They finished the season 20-21 ATS and 18-19 ATS as favorites.

The Liberty were 8-4 straight up as a double-digit home favorite this season (something to note if this spread moves to -10). No team in our Bet Labs database (since 2005) has suffered as many outright losses as a double-digit favorite at home as the Liberty have this season.

The most consistent thing about the Liberty this season has been the offense. They were 23-18 to the over this season, including 12-7 to the over as a home favorite.

Mystics-Liberty Pick

Matt Moore and Dano Mataya discussed this matchup on the latest episode of the Buckets podcast, including how they are betting the series and Game 1. You can listen to the full episode below for their full analysis.

Mataya’s Game 1 Analysis: This Mystics team has a lot of experience. Brittney Sykes has been phenomenal, giving them everything they need from defense to scoring 20 points to hitting game-winners over Breanna Stewart. We’ve also seen all these games go over since the first matchup of the season. The Mystics’ defense is solid and they’ve played more towards the under this season, but the way these games go they are always going down to the wire. It’s hard to think that Elena Delle Donne, Natasha Cloud and Brittney Sykes can’t keep this within three possessions.

Moore’s Game 1 Analysis: In Game 1 (and if it were to go to Game 3), I’ve got the spread projected at 7.6, so I do show a little bit of value on the Mystics here. I’m going play the Mystics in Game 1 and take the 9.5. I wouldn’t be surprised if this also got up to 10 with how popular the Liberty are.

Pick: Mystics +9.5

Bryan Fonseca’s Player Prop: Sabrina Ionescu is playoff-ready and has dominated the Mystics on multiple occasions, including a 20-point game to end the year, and a 31-point outburst on June 25. I’m betting the over on her points prop at 17.5, but there’s another prop of hers that I may also target leading up to tip. For more player props analysis, check out my preview of Friday’s Game 1 matchup here.