This nine-game NBA slate features a ton of injury news already and one late-night hammer that will be tough to watch. These three props are some of the best values on the board tonight, with room for alternative lines.
As always, we’ll be using the Action Labs Player Prop tool to compare our NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks. Let’s dig right in!
NBA Player Props & Picks
Davion Mitchell, Under 6.5 Assists (-130)
|Heat vs. Kings||Heat -12.5|
|Time | TV||7:30 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass|
The Sacramento Kings nearing elimination as they travel on the road to face a struggling Miami Heat team. The Heat have lost four-straight games, but are massive favorites hosting the Kings tonight. Tough spot for the Kings offense.
The Heat rank fifth in Defensive Rating, allowing only 105.2 points per game. Their pace is the third-slowest in the league and they allow just 23.1 assists per game. Davion Mitchell will be highly involved with the Kings offense, but this matchup is difficult and they are only implied to score a slate-low 102 points.
Davion Mitchell has filled in perfectly for De’Aaron Fox in his absence. Over the last three games, Mitchell has recorded seven or more assists. However, two of those three games went into overtime as Mitchell is playing an average of 43 minutes pre game during that time. He is projected for 35 minutes tonight.
There is obviously blowout risk in this game as the Heat are the biggest favorites on the slate at 12.5 points. The Heat are nearly all healthy while the Kings have several injuries, most notably De’Aaron Fox and Domantas Sabonis.
Our model has Mitchell projected for only 4.8 assists which is way lower than this prop line. I would consider taking this down to 5.5 assists and still taking the under due to how tough this spot is and how many points will be scored.
Pascal Siakam, Over 22.5 Points (-125)
|Raptors vs. Celtics||Raptors -4.5|
|Time | TV||7:30 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass|
The Toronto Raptors are clinging onto the last spot in the playoffs as they get a watered down Boston Celtics lineup as they are traveling their B-Team to Toronto tonight in their road island game. The Raptors are 4.5-point favorites.
It would make sense to look at the Celtics side of the ball with their props, but it is difficult to trust them keeping this game competitive with Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Robert Williams, and Al Horford all out. Instead looking to Pascal Siakam is the way to go as the Celtics will lack interior defense in a big way.
The Celtics will likely start Daniel Theis at center and play smaller power forwards, giving Siakam a distinct advantage on the perimeter with his quickness and with his length and heigh in the paint. A perfect mismatch.
Siakam has averaged 26.5 points per game in his last 13 games. During that time he has scored 23 or more points in 10 of those 13 games. OG Anunoby remains out while Gary Trent Jr. is questionable after missing the Raptors last three games. If Trent Jr. sits that will only increase the upside of Siakam.
I would take this prop up to 23.5 points tonight. This is such a great matchup for him against a now weakened Celtics interior defense. He will be able to get into the paint at will and has hit this prop so frequently over the last few weeks.
Theo Maledon, Over 21.5 Points + Assists (-115)
|Trail Blazers vs. Thunder||Thunder -2|
|Time | TV||10 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass|
The late-game hammer features the Portland Trail Blazers and Oklahoma City Thunder who are a combined 5-26 since the All-Star Break. This game starts two hours later than every other game, so why not place a prop bet on it?
Theo Maledon is the best bet to not only play in this game, but to be very productive. The Thunder have several injuries where they will be very short-handed tonight. Most notably is Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Josh Giddey, which provides upside for Maledon in both his usage rate and production.
Maledon has averaged 22.5 points and 4.5 assists in his last two games. He could easily get over this prop tonight on his scoring alone. He has played 32 minutes in each of those two games while shooting 57.7% from the field.
The Trail Blazers have allowed a ridiculous 124.7 points per game in 15 games since the All-Star Break. They rank 29th in Defensive Rating as they are running out G-League like lineups similar to the Thunder. Maledon should have no trouble filling up the stat sheet in this matchup against the Trail Blazers.
There are several players you can look to in this game with so many injuries, but Maledon pops as the best options among everyone else with how well he is playing lately. Expect a high amount of playing time and production tonight.