PropBetGuy will break down some of his favorite NBA plays of the day, and will track all his bets in The Action Network app.
De’Aaron Fox, 23.5 Points
|Prop||Over 23.5 points (-125)|
|Matchup||Kings vs. Celtics|
|Time||8 p.m. ET|
After letting football take center-stage on Thanksgiving, the NBA is back with a massive 14-game Friday slate. One of the more intriguing matchups features the upstart Sacramento Kings coming into Boston to face the reigning Eastern Conference champion Celtics.
My favorite bet of the night is De’Aaron Fox’s point total. The Kings point guard is averaging a robust 25.4 points per game this season, eclipsing this total in 10 of his 15 full games played. In fact, if you remove the game in which Fox left after nine minutes due to injury, his per game average jumps to 26.5 points.
So why would the books set the speedy guard’s point line at 23.5? It’s likely due to the perception of the matchup. The Celtics were the best rated defensive team last season, but rank 17th this season. Part of the decline can be attributed to the absence of Robert Williams, who was able to neutralize shots around the rim.
Without that elite rim protection, I like Fox to thrive against the Celtics. The Kentucky product is best when he’s getting to the rim — he’s averaging 15 drives per game (11th-most in the NBA), and 10.3 points off drives (eighth).
The Celtics have had some issues slashing guards this season. They are allowing the fifth-most points to pick-and-roll ball-handlers, yielding 3.0 more points than last season. As good of an individual defender as Marcus Smart is, he does struggle to stay in front of guards with elite quickness.
With the over/under set at 239 points on DraftKings, this game has the second-highest total on Friday’s 14-game slate. This reads as a sneaky-good spot for Fox, as I have him projected at 27 points.
Pick: Over 23.5 Points — Play up to 24.5.
Get all of PropBetGuy’s bets instantly in The Action Network app.