The 2023-2024 NBA Rookie of the Year race is shaping up to be one of the most exciting in recent memory. There are a number of talented rookies who could make a legitimate claim to the award, but Victor Wembanyama is the clear favorite.
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Wembanyama is a 7-foot-4 center with a wingspan of 7-9. He is widely regarded as the best prospect to enter the NBA since LeBron James, and while those are impossible shoes to fill, I’d be surprised if “Wemby” isn’t an impactful player from the jump. He has a rare combination of size, athleticism, and skill, and he projects to be a dominant force on both ends of the court. He is an elite rim protector with the ability to block and alter shots on every possession. He is also a skilled offensive player with the ability to score inside and outside, a rarity for a player of his size.
Wembanyama is currently the odds-on favorite to win Rookie of the Year at -140 on FanDuel. He is followed by Scoot Henderson (+400), Chet Holmgren (+400), and Brandon Miller (+1700).
A few factors could impact Wembanyama’s chances of winning Rookie of the Year. He missed some time during his lone season at French club Nanterre 92 due to a knee injury, and he’s human, after all. Nothing is a sure thing, so an injury could impact him. Second, Spurs head coach Greg Popovich is known for his tendency to monitor younger players’ minutes and games played. This could limit Wembanyama’s statistical output in year one, and if one of the other strong candidates pops off, the path for Wembanyama’s ROY bid gets a bit harder.
Despite these risks, Wembanyama is still the clear favorite to win Rookie of the Year. He has the potential to be a franchise-changing player, and he should be a major contributor for the Spurs right away. In addition to Wembanyama, there are a few other rookies who could make a run at Rookie of the Year.
Scoot Henderson is a 6-foot-4 guard with elite athleticism. He is a dynamic scorer who can create his own shot and get to the rim. He is joining a Blazers team that is looking to rebuild, and he should have the opportunity to play a lot of minutes regardless of what transpires with Dame Lillard’s trade request.
Chet Holmgren is a 7-foot-1 forward with a unique skill set and was one of last year’s favorites before a Lisfranc injury ended his season before it began. He is a skilled shooter and passer for his size, and he is also a good interior defender despite his build.
A bit deeper down the board, I like Amen Thompson in Houston. Amen is a 6-foot-7 guard who is a solid all-around player. He still needs to develop a consistent outside shot, but he can score, rebound, and pass and is a good defender. He’ll have the opportunity to ignite Houston’s offense as a playmaker.
Henderson, Holmgren, and Thompson all have the potential to be good players in the NBA. However, they all have some question marks in Year 1.
Overall, the 2023-2024 Rookie of the Year race is shaping up to be a competitive one. Wembanyama is the clear favorite, but Henderson, Holmgren, and Thompson all have the potential to make a run at the award. It will be interesting to see how these rookies develop and how they impact their respective teams.
In terms of betting value, Henderson and Holmgren may be the best options. Both Henderson and Holmgren are currently +400, and both players have the potential to be stars in the NBA, and they are both playing for teams that should provide them with plenty of opportunities. Thompson is a bit of a long shot at +4000, but he is worth a look if you are looking for a value play.
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