The Lakers (0-3) face elimination on Saturday evening after dropping Game 3 at home on Thursday, with the Nuggets increasing their playoff win streak against the Lakers to seven. The game tips off at 5:30 p.m. PT on ABC, with the pregame show on Spectrum SportsNet starting at 4:30 p.m.
THIRD QUARTER WOES
After Thursday evening’s difficult Game 3 loss, I asked Austin Reaves what he thought was the difference not just in that game, but across the three games thus far.
“Our third quarters have been atrocious,” summarized the third-year guard.
He is right. Here’s the scoring margin thus far:
Game 1: 32-18 Denver
Game 2: 25-20 Denver
Game 3: 34-22 Denver
That’s a total of 91 points for Denver to 60 for the Lakers.
After hearing from Reaves, I relayed his thought to LeBron to see what James thought was going on.
“We spent so much energy in the first half building leads, defensive intensity that we have, that we come out in the third quarter with not much energy, kind of lose track to attention to detail that we had in the first half,” LeBron responded. “And you give credit where credit is due with Denver. Those guys make tough shot after tough shot after tough shot.”
Needless to say, if the Lakers have any chance of winning Game 4, they’ll have to figure out how to turn things around in the third quarter.
LOSING THE REBOUNDING WAR
Another area of consistent struggle for the Lakers has come on the backboard, which Denver has now controlled for five straight meetings:
Game 3: 51-38 (14-8 offensive)
Game 2: 36-34 (9-4)
Game 1: 49-40 (15-6)
March 2: 47-31 (11-6)
Feb. 8: 50-39 (14-10)
What’s going on there?
“Sometimes it’s the guards on bigger guys, but other times it’s just simple boxing out or going to get it,” said Anthony Davis, who’s averaging 13.3 boards per game, with no other Laker over LeBron’s 6.7. “There were times tonight where (Nuggets players) missed shots and got their own rebound; I think everyone (on the Lakers) is anticipating the other guy going to get it, instead of one of us (just getting) it.”
Sometimes rebounding is simply about personnel, and the Nuggets have one of the NBA’s biggest front lines, with both Nikola Jokic (6’11’’) and Aaron Gordon (6’9’’) dominant on the backboards for different reasons*, plus Michael Porter Jr. (6’10’’).
*Jokic is massive and takes up a ton of space, is intelligent and has the best hands in the NBA, while Gordon is one of the best athletes in the world and has great instincts on the offensive glass.
With Jokic averaging 40.0 minutes per game, Gordon 37.7 and MPJ 37.0 in the postseason, the Lakers have countered with 42.0 minutes for Davis and 40.3 for LeBron. Their third frontcourt starter, Rui Hachimura, has grabbed just 3.3 boards in his 32.3 minutes. And in Game 3, Jaxson Hayes was removed from the rotation after playing just 10 total minutes in Games 1 and 2, leaving the rest of the minutes dispersed among, basically, five guards: Austin Reaves (5.0 boards); D’Angelo Russell (3.0); Taurean Prince* (2.7); Spencer Dinwiddie (1.3) and Gabe Vincent (2.0).
*Prince often plays one of the forward spots, but averaged 2.9 boards per game this season.
In other words, the Lakers have almost always been smaller than the Nuggets, especially with any type of bench lineup at all. In the times they’re closer to matching size (when Hachimura is in with both AD and LeBron), there’s still behind the rebounding eight ball.
In fairness, the Lakers have been without their second and fourth best rebounders this season, per 36 minutes, as Christian Wood (10.5 per 36) and Jarred Vanderbilt (8.6) have been injured for most of the second half of the season. Wood is listed as questionable for Saturday’s game, meaning he could make his postseason debut.
THE POSSESSIONS GAME
The Lakers are losing the possessions margin in this series due in part to the rebounding gap, and also due to the turnover margin being in Denver’s favor, 33 to 26. In theory, LAL would to make up for that by being the more efficient shooting team, and by a considerable margin.
The Nuggets have made 46.4% of their shots overall, though just 26.9% from 3, relative to L.A.’s 49.0% overall, and 30.2% from three. But L.A.’s 3-point volume has been low, and they’ve hit only 26of 86 attempts from distance, to Denver’s 28 of 104.
Game 3 was the roughest for the Lakers from this standpoint, as they hit only 5 of 27 3’s, four of which came in the fourth quarter when the game was largely decided, after just 1 of 14 triples fell in the first three quarters. Denver didn’t shoot the ball well either, but they hit 5 of 22 3’s in the first three quarters, before missing all six of their fourth quarter looks.
The Lakers typically have a big advantage at the charity stripe, having attempted 24.1 per game in the regular season to rank 2nd, and allowed just 18.0 (2nd), for a net of +6.1
Denver, meanwhile, ranked 29th with 19.7 attempts, and allowed 22.0 (20th), a net -2.3.
Yet, the Lakers have taken only four free throws more than the Nuggets, and both teams have made the same amount: 39.
Anthony Davis is doing his part, leading the Lakers with 20 free throw attempts, helping him towards his team-best 32.3 points, plus 13.3 rebounds, 3.3 assists, 1.7 blocks and 0.7 steals in the three games thus far.
Nonetheless, without an advantage on the glass, turnovers, 3’s or free throws, it’s easier to understand how the Lakers are down in the series.