After clinching the 7th seed with consecutive road wins over the Pelicans on the final day of the regular season and then in the play-in game, the Lakers open the playoffs on the road against the Nuggets a rematch of last year's Western Conference Finals. The game tips off at 5:30 p.m. on ABC.
Below are three things to know ahead of the matchup.
MATCHUP OVERVIEW
Before discussing what the Lakers can do against the Nuggets now that they are facing each other in the playoffs again, it is helpful to take a look backwards at the team's recent matchups to review not only what happened, but to extract what from those games is still relevant and meaningful vs. what might be less applicable to this series.
A key talking point heading into this series will be the Nuggets eight consecutive wins vs. the Lakers over the last two-plus seasons. Those, of course, date back to last season's conference finals matchup in which the Nuggets won 4-0, but also to the three wins Denver earned this year. Of those regular season games, the first was on opening night, the second was on the night in which the Lakers unveiled Kobe Bryant's statue, and the third came back on March 2nd. The average margin of victory for the Nuggets was 10 points, with differentials of 12, eight, and then 10-points in the respective games.
It should be noted that only one of those games -- the one on March 2nd -- came with the Lakers' current starting group beginning the game (when Kentavious Caldwell-Pope was out for Denver), and the others featured either substantive minutes for players who are either not currently available and/or no longer in the rotation, or had a starter missing (D'Angelo Russell missed the February 8th contest).
This is not to diminish the importance of these games. Each of those contests did follow a similar trend, with both teams having their stretches of being in control -- the Lakers led for much of the March 2nd contest -- only for the Nuggets to exert their will in crunch time of each game to firmly take control down the stretch and pull out the wins. In fact, this was a similar theme of last season's playoff series as well, with the Nuggets exhibiting a level of shot making in the game's most key moments that the Lakers were unable to slow down.
If there is a hurdle for the Lakers to clear heading into this series, then, it is to match or exceed Denver's ability to execute down the stretch and perform to a certain level in the clutch. To that end, the Lakers have been one of the better clutch teams in the league this season, boasting the highest winning percentage in clutch games (72.7%) while doing enough on both sides of the ball (8th on offense, 13th in defense) to pull out wins.
As is somewhat expected, Denver is also one of the best clutch teams in the league, not only ranking 3rd in clutch winning percentage (65.0%) but also first in clutch net rating (+24.5). So, if the Lakers are going to make headway in this matchup, it will come not only because they are able to tackle the Nuggets in the middle portions of the game, but by being about to close out the defending champs in those most critical moments down the stretch.
SIMILAR STYLES
While the look and feel of these teams are different in many ways, their general approaches -- particularly on offense -- are built on similar philosophies.
These teams are two of the most post-centric offenses in the NBA, with the Denver ranking at the top of the league in number of post-up possessions per game (8.5) and the Lakers (7.3) ranking 4th. Whether running primary actions for their star player like Denver does with Jokic and the Lakers do with Anthony Davis or LeBron, or trying to exploit matchup advantages with secondary looks for Aaron Gordon or Rui Hachimura, both teams want to hunt advantages in the post in order to score easy baskets or draw help and then move the ball on to an open player to create an even better shot.
Not coincidentally, both teams are at or near the top of the league both in shots taken in the restricted area and points in the paint, with the Lakers ranking 4th and 2nd in those respective categories and the Nuggets ranking 3rd and 5th. Both teams not only try to leverage the post for these chances inside, but do so via drives, cuts, pick-and-rolls, and dump offs. The Lakers are also one of the best teams at getting points in transition, many of which come right at the basket via LeBron's open court stampedes to the rim, Rui's lane filling, and AD's rim runs.
And with both teams hunting out the paint as often as they do, it should come as no surprise that neither side is a high-volume three-point shooting team. Denver is 30th in threes attempted per game (31.2) and the Lakers are not far behind at 28th (31.4). That said, both teams do you make opponents pay when they do take threes, as both rank in the top-10 for three-point field goal percentage -- the Lakers are 8th (37.7%) while the Nuggets are 10th (37.4%).
Truly, then, this series shapes up to be a matchup where both teams will try to accomplish many of the same things even if the process to get there may not be exactly the same and comes with aesthetic differences. And, with that, the side that can better excel in these specific areas while also finding ways to win on the margins will be able to get a leg up in the series.
GAME 1 KEYS
Anytime these teams matchup, the focus will instantly narrow in on which sides star players can impact the game most and which team has more answers for trying to slow them down.
For the Lakers, both LeBron and AD will have major asks on both sides of the ball as primary scorers and as defensive options as primary and help defenders against Jokic. For AD, his ability to score in isolation against Jokic -- whether in the post or working more off the dribble and from the midrange -- will be important in helping to lift up the team's halfcourt offense and make Jokic work defensively.
An important aspect of AD's ability to be effective offensively could come down to playing quickly and forcing Jokic to match his athleticism in short burst movements. If Davis can effectively catch Jokic flat-footed with quick moves, it can not only get him easier shot attempts, but potentially put Jokic in position where he fouls more.
As for LeBron, he faces off against one of the better individual defenders in the league in Gordon, particularly when working against him in isolation and off the dribble. If LeBron can get his jump shot going and then find ways to still be involved in the offense off the ball by spotting up, cutting, and diving out of the screen-and-roll, he can offer strong production while also working parts of Denver's defense that could offer more cracks for him to exploit.
On the other end, the Lakers chief challenges are still dealing with Jokic, but how to deal with Jamal Murray is just as important. Murray's shot making and general ability to create good offense in isolation and out of his two-man game actions with Jokic have been huge in helping Denver win the games they have.
Slowing Murray is certainly a collective effort and will require more than just great individual performances from his own defender, but a key part of getting wins in this area could come down to when both bench units are on the floor and Gabe Vincent is matched up with Murray in the middle portions of the game. If the Lakers can find ways to better defend Murray in the parts of the game when Jokic is out, they can go a long way towards getting an advantage overall, and Vincent's ability to get over screens and stay connected at the point of attack are crucial traits towards that end.
Of course, with all the focus on the stars, a huge performance from a secondary scorer can be all the difference in winning a single game. When these teams matched up in March, Michael Porter Jr. hit all 10 of his shots from the field, including five three-pointers to help Denver get that win. If Porter Jr. or Caldwell-Pope have a big night, it can turn the game. Just like D'Angelo Russell or Austin Reaves getting it going can do the same for the Lakers. Look for both sides to try to get their secondary scorers going in the hopes of giving their side an edge.