After a tough playoff opener that the Lakers ultimately lost 100-93, they get a chance for redemption against the Blazers on Thursday evening. Below are the three things you need to know ahead of the matchup:
WIDE OPEN MISSES GOTTA STOP
If there’s one thing above all else that needs to change from Game 1 to Game 2, it’s how the Lakers convert their wide-open shots. Missing a well-contested attempt against NBA defense makes sense, but continually clanking the iron with no defender in sight can't continue to happen if a team expects to win. According to Second Spectrum, the Lakers had the worst “shooting luck” of any team dating back to the 2013-14 season, scoring a full 46 fewer points than expected based on the quality of the shots, the players who took those shots, and the number of free throws.
Many of the open looks on the perimeter came from Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (0 for 5 from 3) and Anthony Davis (0 for 5), while both LeBron James and Kyle Kuzma went 1 for 5 from distance. Alex Caruso was 0 for 3, and Danny Green 2 of 8. And while the Lakers have struggled to hit threes throughout the Bubble experience, they’ve been typically efficient at the rim … at least until Tuesday. They made only 25 of 47 attempts within eight feet (53.2%), compared to their typical 63.3% conversion rate in the regular season. Davis gave Portland’s shot blockers Hassan Whiteside and Jusuf Nurkic credit, but also said the Lakers need to simply slow down and compose themselves as they usually do.
KEEP UP THE DEFENSE
L.A.’s defensive effort against Portland was actually very good, and more than good enough to win games against the Blazers if they’re able to keep it up. Frank Vogel mentioned how historically good Portland’s offense was in their seeding games, as they averaged an offensive rating over 120 (which would be an NBA record). The Lakers held them to only 100 points (the Blazers averaged 123 in the seeding games) and a 98 offensive rating. While Damian Lillard was typically terrific, scoring 34 points on 21 shots, L.A. limited the rest of the roster, with CJ McCollum needing 20 attempts for his 21 points, and Carmelo Anthony 11 shots for his 11 points.
L.A. effectively protected the rim, giving up only 28 points inside while scoring 50, and forced 16 Blazers turnovers to just 10 of their own. In fact, if you take out a rough first quarter in which Portland scored 36 points, they managed only 21, 21 and 22 in the final three periods. The Blazers did look a bit fatigued on that end, perhaps in part due to how hard they had to play in the seeding games, and in part due to how hard they were working to clog the paint on the Lakers defensively. Regardless, L.A.’s game plan was sound, as they rotated well to mostly contest Portland’s 3-point attempts, and didn’t give up anything easy at the rim. The area for most improvement: fouling less. L.A. put the Blazers at the FT line 33 times, and conceded 25 points.
THE ROTATION
Frank Vogel stuck with the same starting lineup, staying big with JaVale McGee at center and Anthony Davis at the four for McGee’s 12:40 of action, and playing Dwight Howard for 14:42 off the bench. At no fault of his own – McGee was effective inside with three field goals and eight rebounds, including four offensive – the Lakers were a -9 in McGee’s minutes. With Howard at center, however, they were a +7, though his minutes coincided with Lillard’s rest time (Lillard was a +19 for Portland).
Here’s the thing, though: if the Lakers simply hit a few of their wide open 3’s, all of a sudden the math starts to flip, and they’re still able to get elite rim protection and defense with their big group while not suffering much offensively with the added benefit of offensive rebounding. The question remains: if the Lakers go small right from the start, and get an extra shooter on the court, does that increase the quality of their looks even more? And what would they lose against this specific Blazers matchup, with two bigs that can pound you inside, by playing small more often? That’s an ongoing question that will definitely play out.
The other rotation question is if Markieff Morris will continue to play over Dion Waiters, who only got one minute of action in Game 1, with Morris playing 19 off the bench. Kyle Kuzma is going to play big bench minutes regardless (30 on Tuesday), it’s just a question of if he’s at the three (when Morris plays) or the four (when Waiters plays). Vogel could also call upon Quinn Cook or JR Smith if he’s just looking for shooting, or, once he’s ready to play in games, Rajon Rondo for playmaking and general playoff savvy.