Playoff time!!! So, I’m not sure what’s felt like a longer wait: from March 10 to today, when the Lakers last played in the regular season, or L.A.’s unprecedented – for the Lakers – playoff drought, going back to 2013 … OK fine it’s the latter, but the point is, it’s been far too long. That all stops tonight at 6 p.m. on Spectrum when the Lakers play Portland in Orlando. Here are three things you need to know:
BATTLE OF THE STARS
Nearly every game the Trail Blazers played in the Bubble was of the “must win” variety, while the Lakers had nothing of the kind. When watching the two teams play, some looked at Damian Lillard – deservedly voted the Seeding Games MVP – and couldn’t help but wonder about all the problems he might cause the Lakers while representing one of the stronger No. 8 seeds in recent memory. Lillard averaged 37.6 points in the Bubble to lead the NBA, and made 5.5 3’s a game (first), plus 8.9 FT’s a night (second) while also ranking third in assists with 9.6.
There’s no question he’s a big problem for any opponent. But here’s the thing … the Lakers have a bigger problem: LeBron James.
The vastly-experienced LeBron already leads all NBA players in the history of the league in playoff minutes: 10,049, a total of 239 games during which he’s averaged 28.9 points on 49.1 percent FG’s, 8.9 rebounds, 7.1 assists, 1.8 steals and 1.0 blocks in 42.0 minutes. LeBron acknowledged that he didn’t have the throttle down in the seeding games, and nor should he have. But he’s always been a different guy in the postseason, and there’s no reason to expect otherwise especially in a matchup where Portland should struggle more than most given their lack of wing depth. Last year, the Blazers had Al-Farouq Aminu and Moe Harkless on the wing defensively, but with Trevor Ariza missing the Bubble games entirely, they’re down to Carmelo Anthony, Mario Hezonja and rookie Wenyen Gabriel, unless they want to try 6’6’’ Gary Trent, Jr. on LeBron. When James has such an advantageous matchup and can break down a defense more easily as a result, there isn’t much of a bigger issue for an opponent. And, clearly, 6’9’’ LeBron can do more defensively to impact a game than the 6’2’’ Lillard.
BATTLE OF THE STARS PART II
The gap between L.A.’s No. 2, Anthony Davis, and Portland’s No. 2, CJ McCollum, is wider than that of LeBron and Lillard, who are both MVP candidates. McCollum is a dangerous scorer who’s terrific at getting his own shot in isolation, and made the most jump shots in the NBA this season. But he can’t dominate a game on both ends like Davis, and that’s no insult … only four or five players in the league can. The dominance of AD was unleashed against Portland in the 2018 playoffs, when he went off for 33.0 points, 11.8 boards, 2.8 blocks and 1.8 steals in a 4-0 sweep by New Orleans. Portland may have started Zach Collins on AD, but Collins will miss Game 1, and if/when he returns, AD remains a tough matchup for him. Center Jusuf Nurkic may be forced to guard AD a fair amount especially when the Lakers go small, which could be frequently, and he’s also not a great matchup for Davis. We know from the three regular season matchups, in which Davis averaged 32 points on 55.9% shooting, that Hassan Whiteside isn’t a good matchup for him either.
Meanwhile, on defense, it may be AD, and not primary guard defenders like Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Danny Green and Alex Caruso, who is the key to containing Lillard and McCollum. Both Blazer guards are so good off the dribble that it’s pretty tricky to keep them from getting to their spots, but that’s where the help defense comes in, and there’s nobody better in the NBA than Davis as a secondary defender, with his insane combination of length, athleticism and hoops IQ.
BENCH X FACTORS
Both teams possess in-rhythm, dangerous bench options in Kyle Kuzma and Gary Trent, Jr., both of whom ripped up the Bubble. Kuz, who had a chance to get healthy due to the layoff, and whose minutes went up in the absence of Avery Bradley and Rajon Rondo, averaged a healthy 15.4 points on 46.3% FG’s and 44.4% from 3 in the seeding games, hitting 16 of his 36 triples. One of the few players who shot even better from 3 was Trent, Jr., who ranked 2nd in the seeding games with 4.3 triples made per game, trailing only his teammate, Lillard. He shot 50 percent from distance, towards 16.9 bench points, with 81 of his 91 attempted shots coming on jumpers.
Both players were also a plus on the defensive end, so we should certainly get used to seeing them play big minutes in this series.
The Lakers do have an advantage as you move deeper into the bench. Portland played only an 8-man rotation in their must-win games, with Trent Jr., Whiteside and Hezonja coming off the pine, and Gabriel occasionally joining them for spot minutes. Coach Terry Stotts didn’t want to go further, and that was before losing starter Collins to the ankle injury keeping him out of at least Game 1. Meanwhile, Frank Vogel used a 10-man rotation always including Kuzma, Caruso and Dwight Howard, with several other players – Dion Waiters, Talen Horton-Tucker, Markieff Morris, Quinn Cook, Jared Dudley and JR Smith – all vying for minutes.
This underscores a larger issue that could go one of two ways. Portland is in a nice rhythm, having to essentially play in playoff games already. L.A. did not get in rhythm, but they did get their players plenty of rest, and did not extend the workload of their key guys like Portland had to. How that plays out in terms of sharpness and energy could be another X factor especially early in the series.
Game on!