Plenty of storylines and familiarity exists between the teams here, headlined by three potential Hall of Fame guards potentially going head to head. Houston All-Star guards Russell Westbrook and James Harden both played for Oklahoma City before trades eventually landed them with the Rockets, while All-Star guard Chris Paul ended up with the Thunder after two seasons in Houston through a July 2019 trade for Westbrook.
Oklahoma City bested Houston in two of the three regular-season games between the teams, but it’s important to note those victories came before the Rockets decided to hitch their fortunes to coach Mike D’Antoni’s small-ball style of play.
“It’ll be interesting,” Paul said after the Thunder finished on a 19-7 run Wednesday night to defeat the Miami Heat 116-115. “Two teams that know a lot about each other.”
Interestingly, the Thunder and Rockets are housed in the same building and hotel at the Grand Floridian Resort & Spa at Walt Disney World, according to Marc Stein of The New York Times. Let’s hope the teams save the fireworks for on the court once the playoffs commence.
Three things to watch
1. What’s Russell Westbrook’s status? If he’s available, how effective will he be? Houston announced Aug. 12 that an MRI revealed a strain in Westbrook’s right quadriceps. A day later, reports surfaced he would miss at least the start of this series. Given Westbrook’s competitive fire and the fact he spent 11 seasons in OKC, it would come as a shock if he doesn’t play. One must wonder how effective Westbrook can be in this matchup, given that so much of his game is built on explosive athleticism. Before Houston sat him for the remainder of the seeding games, Westbrook ranked third in the NBA restart in drives per game (25.0) and led the league in the same category (20.5) before the restart. Plenty of assists and easy buckets came off those drives. But take away the drive, and nobody’s afraid of Westbrook’s shooting.
2. Depth should play a major role. Houston usually utilizes a nine-man rotation, but throughout their time in the bubble the Rockets haven’t been whole. “We’ve dealt with adversity before,” Harden said after the team’s loss on Wednesday to the Indiana Pacers. “D-House (Danuel House Jr.) has missed a few games. Eric [Gordon] is just coming back. We know how to fight through adversity.” We’ll certainly see soon against a fairly deep OKC squad that features Kia Sixth Man of the Year candidate Dennis Schroder, who recently returned to the NBA bubble after leaving Aug. 3 to be with his wife for the birth of their second child. Additionally, defensive stopper Andre Roberson is back after missing more than two years because of a knee injury.
3. Clutch play is key. Oklahoma City has four players — Paul, Schroder, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, and Danilo Gallinari — that rank among the top of the league in regular-season games played during clutch time (which is defined as any game separated by five points or fewer in the last five minutes of a game). That’s huge in playoffs, and the Thunder own a league-best 30-14 record in those scenarios. Their win against the Miami Heat on Wednesday serves as testament to that as Mike Muscala nailed a game-winning 3-pointer with 5.2 seconds remaining to help OKC rally from a 22-point deficit in the fourth quarter. The Rockets enter the postseason at 19-13 in clutch time.
The number to know
102.9 — No Western Conference opponent held the Rockets’ top-five offense to fewer points per 100 possessions than the Thunder (102.9). The Rockets shot worse than 30% from 3-point range in all three games and attempted just 31 total free throws in their two losses. Harden’s effective field goal percentage (37.3%) was his worst mark and his 5.3 assists per game was his second lowest mark against any West opponent. While the Rockets’ offensive numbers have generally been better with Harden on the floor without Westbrook, they scored a paltry 45 points on 59 offensive possessions with Harden on without Westbrook against the Thunder. No OKC defender ranks higher than 20th in total time defending Harden this season, but Luguentz Dort had the assignment in the only meeting (the third one) in which he was in the Thunder rotation. All three meetings did take place before Houston committed to super-small ball (Clint Capela played 84 minutes over the three games).
— John Schuhmann
The pick
No doubt, the Rockets possess more star power in Harden and Westbrook, but Oklahoma City appears to be the deeper overall team led by a legitimate floor general in Paul with something to prove against his former team. Westbrook’s quadriceps injury could potentially neutralize his only real advantage (athleticism) against Paul, a crafty, battle-tested veteran. Thunder center Steven Adams (lower leg) is cleared to play, and he’ll gobble up the boards against the small-ball Rockets. Gilgeous-Alexander will prove to be a problem along with OKC’s depth and clutch-time experience. Houston might be the favorite in this series, but the Thunder will emerge at the end. Thunder in 7.
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Michael C. Wright is a senior writer for NBA.com. You can e-mail him here , find his archive here and follow him on Twitter .
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