On the Eve of the Draft

A look at what the Warriors might do with the 30th pick in Thursday's NBA Draft.

Thursday, June 254:00 p.m.Watch: ESPN

1st Round: 30th Pick2nd Round: No Pick

The NBA season waits for no one, not even the reigning NBA champs. While the confetti continues to float around the city of Oakland as a constant reminder of the monumental achievement that took place just eight days ago, the Warriors now must push that celebration to the backburner, as tomorrow’s NBA Draft requires their immediate and utmost attention.

It’s quite fitting actually, that the reason the Dubs must come back to the table also happens to have played a tremendously huge part in why they were granted a parade away from it. The Draft is the bloodline of any NBA franchise, and the ones that utilize it the best, such as the Warriors in recent years, reap benefits for several seasons to come. The fact of the matter is, rookie contracts are cheap compared to the monstrous ones doled out in free agency, and thus, hitting on the right picks is the best way to build a team without breaking the bank. If you look at the Warriors team that just won the Championship, a high quotient of players that played crucial roles in their regular and postseason success all happen to be homegrown talent. That is, not only did the Warriors draft them, but also fostered their development to the point that they could contribute at the highest levels of basketball in the entire world.

Just go down the list: Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, Harrison Barnes, Draymond Green, and Festus Ezeli; that’s essentially an entire theoretical starting lineup all drafted by the Warriors within the last six years. Those homegrown players formed more than half of Golden State’s main rotation throughout the playoffs, and all played essential roles in the team’s first Championship in four decades. Of those five, four were first round picks, with Draymond Green representing the latest and most obvious example of teams finding tremendous diamonds in the rough of the second round. While these five players are all on contracts of various lengths and corresponding compensations, it is widely assumed that all will remain a part of the Warriors main core for seasons to come. So not only did the Warriors win a Championship, but they have the assets on hand to make multiple more runs at additional Larry O’Brien trophies in the next several years.

So, if the Warriors are already so great, what does the Draft really matter to Golden State and its fans? After all, any player drafted with the last pick of the first round (where the Warriors currently sit in the draft order) couldn’t be expected to crack what is already arguably the league’s deepest lineup, right?

Well, yes and no.

It’s true, history tells us that few players drafted that late in the first round ever turn out to be great players with long careers. However, history also tells us that if you look in the right places, you may just be able to buck that trend. For instance, plenty of past and current NBA veterans have been found with the 30th pick, and the Warriors, as it turns out, have been tied to several of them. Notable 30th picks include Ezeli (’12), Jimmy Butler (’11), David Lee (’05), Anderson Varejao (’04) and Gilbert Arenas (’01). It’s not a treasure trove of success, but it certainly isn’t anything to scoff at either. There is plenty of talent to be found at the back end of the first round, and if that is indeed where the Warriors end up selecting tomorrow night, they’ll have a shot at finding a player capable of sustaining prolonged success in this league. In fact, the idea that the Warriors are too deep to have room to develop a late-pick rookie could actually work in their combined favor. Whoever that rookie turns out to be will have a bevy of NBA veterans as teammates from which to learn from, while also not inheriting the pressure of being expected to contribute significantly right off the bat. For teams that find themselves picking at the end of the first round, the Draft is so often about the future, rather than the immediate present. That is the case for the Warriors tomorrow night, and that’s not a bad thing considering their present is still basking in the light reflecting off of the NBA Championship trophy they just won.

It’s always possible that the team moves up or down within the draft order as a result of trades, but at the 30th spot, that possibility is just too difficult to predict. So, assuming the Warriors stay at #30, whom might they select with that pick? The Dubs have the benefit of going the best player available route if they so choose, but if they’re looking to address any particular need, that might give us a hint as to what kind of player they could be looking for. For instance, the Warriors ranked as the 10th-worst offensive rebounding team in the league this past season in terms of rebounding percentage, and only the 12th-best rebounding team as a whole. Also, the Warriors current backups to Klay Thompson at the shooting guard position are 32 year-old Leandro Barbosa and 26 year-old journeyman Justin Holiday. Barbosa evidently still has plenty left in the tank and Holiday has made great strides over the past year, but the team could probably use an influx of youth and talent at the position. So, based off of those two areas of need, it would seem the Warriors would be looking for a shooting guard or power forward at the 30th spot.

Coincidentally enough, there just happen to be several players at those positions that are generally predicted to still be available at the tail end of the first round. However, keep in mind that one of the main ingredients of the Warriors’ recipe of success this past season was their seemingly endless versatility, so while some prospects may be categorized as either a shooting guard or power forward, the Dubs will likely be looking for players with positional versatility that can do several things well, including play defense.

Shooting Guards:

R.J. Hunter (21, Georgia State); Justin Anderson (21, Virginia); Rashad Vaughn (18, UNLV); Anthony Brown (22, Stanford); Joseph Young (22, Oregon).

If there are two common traits featured amongst these prospects, it’s clear that they are length and, most notably, shooting. All but Young stand at 6’5” or taller, and every single one of these prospects projects as an above average three-point shooter at the NBA level. Additionally, they all, for the most part, possess the ability to play multiple positions, so they’d fit in nicely with the Warriors’ already-versatile lineup.

Power Forwards:

Bobby Portis (20, Arkansas); Jarrel Martin (21, LSU); Chris McCullough (20, Syracuse); Jonathan Holmes (22, Texas); Christian Wood (19, UNLV).

While Draymond Green has solidified the starting power forward spot, it’s undeniable that he is undersized for the position. It hasn’t seemed to hurt him, or the Warriors for that matter, but nonetheless, the team could use some additional size and athleticism in the frontcourt. Each of these big men prospects checks both of those boxes, with all standing at least 6’9” or taller combined with the ability to stretch the defense on the offensive end of the floor. Stretch-fours have become all the rave in the NBA, thanks in large part to do-it-all studs like Green, and any of these players would give the Dubs someone to develop with the potential to become a two-way contributor in the frontcourt.

Now, for all the reasons mentioned above, it’s highly unlikely the Warriors will have their choice of more than a few of these ten prospects when pick #30 rolls around. For the same reasons they would be attractive additions to the Warriors, they are also seen as promising prospects to the 29 other teams drafting ahead of them in the first round. Of course, it’s entirely possible Golden State could have identified a player not mentioned above that they see as the best use of the pick, and select them. Or, perhaps the Warriors have targeted a prospect that won’t be available at the 30th selection, and thus feel compelled to move up in the draft order in order to get him. It’s all speculation at this point, and we won’t have any further clarification on the matter until the picks begin to be announced tomorrow night, beginning with the Minnesota Timberwolves’ #1 overall selection. In any case, the incoming draft class will be full of players who will eventually garner league-wide attention for their play on the court, and if the Warriors replicate their recent draft success again tomorrow night, it’s possible their selection could be considered amongst them.