Bloggers Roundtable: Finals Preview

In the days leading up to Game 1 between the Warriors and Cavaliers, five bloggers preview the NBA Finals.

After winning their respective conferences, the Warriors and Cavaliers prepare to tip off Game 1 of the NBA Finals on Thursday night. In the meantime, some Bay Area and Cleveland-based bloggers offer their insight and preview what has the potential to be one of the most entertaining Finals series in recent memory. Here’s what they had to say:

Adam Lauridsen, Fast Break: Is this LeBron's first year as a head coach? Joking aside, David Blatt has done a nice job dealing with injuries and the pressure of coaching James. He's in a much more difficult situation than Kerr and has handled himself well. That said, I give the coaching edge to the Warriors. Steve Kerr and his staff have proven to be remarkably adaptable over the course of the playoffs. They were brilliant in the Memphis series, found a way to trap James Harden in an NBA-worst turnover performance last round, and out-coached the Pelicans so badly to start the playoffs that the franchise just hired away Alvin Gentry for next season. The Warriors' depth and versatility will be a virtue this series -- as it has been all season -- and the coaching staff is the key to unlocking those virtues.

David Zavac, Fear the Sword: I'll say Steve Kerr, if only because he has more options. The Warriors have the deepest, most versatile team in the NBA and Kerr managed them beautifully on their way to 67 regular season wins and the NBA Finals. He can mix and match lineups, and utilize several different players in Draymond Green, Harrison Barnes, and Andre Iguodala that can spend time on LeBron James. Through attrition, the Cavaliers have a much thinner reservoir of talent to draw from. With the Bulls and Hawks, David Blatt dared opposing point guards Derrick Rose and Jeff Teague to beat the Cavs. It's hard to see him going that route again with Steph Curry.

Steve Berman, Bay Area Sports Guy: The Warriors have the clear advantage, because their staff has two players with substantial NBA Finals experience in Steve Kerr and Luke Walton. Despite David Blatt's international experience and accomplishments, nothing matches the pressure and media craziness of the Finals. Blatt has cracked a little already in these playoffs -- in Game 4 against the Bulls he tried to call a timeout his team didn't have and called a play that LeBron James scratched at the end of the game. There's a reason why many think that James is the team's de facto coach instead of Blatt, something no one would ever say about Kerr.

Daniel Leroux, RealGM/WarriorsWorld: The Warriors. While David Blatt has done a nice job adapting to difficult circumstances brought on by injury throughout the playoffs, Steve Kerr and his staff have made pivotal adjustments in each series against opponents that necessitated that kind of action. Golden State changed the way they defended their All-NBA First Team opponent during each previous series and the shift led to a substantial improvement all three times. In my eyes, the Warriors have a much better chance of solving the Cavs than the Cavs have of figuring out the Warriors.

Nate Duncan, Dunc'd On Podcast: I'm sure most would say Steve Kerr and his All-Star staff, and I will agree with that. However, the advantage is not so clear-cut as it might appear at first blush considering how much flak Blatt has gotten this year. While the Cavs' offense has been boring and predictable in the playoffs (perhaps due to LeBron James' influence more than Blatt's), it has also been very effective in the playoffs. With the absence of additional playmaking on the roster with the Irving and Love injuries, Cleveland deserves credit for squeezing this level of offense out of James, three-point shooters, and fantastic offensive rebounding. And the Cavaliers have also defended at a far superior rate to their regular season numbers, for which Blatt deserves credit. The way they defended Atlanta and Chicago by packing the paint, going under screens, switching pick and rolls, and stymieing penetration worked beautifully as those series progressed. His rotations have also been expert, as he excised established guys like Shawn Marion and Mike Miller to get better player on the floor.

That said, making the Warriors beat the Cavaliers from the outside is not going to work, so Blatt and his staff will need to come up with a new plan. Whether they can find something that works defensively is one of the keys of the series.

Adam Lauridsen, Fast Break: Klay Thompson was an inconsistent presence in the Houston series, although he ultimately came through in key moments. I expect him to have a much stronger performance against the Cavs. First, not having to chase James Harden around all night will make his life much easier. He'll take some time on James, but I doubt he'll be the primary defender. With an easier defensive assignment, he'll have more energy to expend on the offensive end. Second, I'm not sold on Iman Shumpert or Kyrie Irving defending Thompson. Shumpert seems like the best fit, but that leaves Irving alone on Curry. James has the size to guard Thompson, but forcing him to chase Thompson around the court will expend considerable energy. Much like Barnes in the Houston series, I expect the defensive mismatch to eventually give way. That mismatch should be Curry or Thompson, and my guess is Blatt doesn't want to take his chances with the MVP.

David Zavac, Fear the Sword: Kyrie Irving, and it will largely depend on his health. It's not just about what Irving himself can do, but what effect he might have on LeBron James. During the regular season, James used a manageable 29.4% of Cleveland Cavalier possessions and posted a stellar 59.9 true shooting rate (which adjusts for the value of three pointers and free throws) with Irving on the court. When James played without Irving, though, the four-time Most Valuable Player of the league used an incredible 40.4% of Cavalier possessions. His true shooting rate in that time is a pedestrian 53.3. Irving being able to take on the offensive load gives LeBron James opportunities to spot up off the ball and spend less time at point guard, as well as spend more energy on the defensive end.

If he's reasonably healthy.

Steve Berman, Bay Area Sports Guy: Draymond Green has a tough test. He'll spend most of his time guarding either Tristan Thompson (who's two inches taller than Green) or LeBron James (who's impossible to guard). When Green makes his threes, the Warriors' starting lineup is an unstoppable juggernaut -- with the extra time between series, will Green's legs and shooting touch come back? The series may rest on it. Oh, and Green will also need to average 10+ rebounds per game. It sounds overwhelming, but betting against Green has proved foolish throughout his career.

Daniel Leroux, RealGM/WarriorsWorld: Andrew Bogut. Golden State’s center was the #2 rim protector in the entire league during the regular season and #1 in these playoffs, per Nylon Calculus. Facing a Cleveland team with dangerous drivers who can get to the basket and the free throw line will test Bogut’s ability to defend the basket and stay out of foul trouble. Offensively, the Aussie will need to play a role in maintaining ball movement, setting quality screens to open up shooters and forcing the Cavs to commit players to the boards instead of running in transition.

Nate Duncan, Dunc'd On Podcast: Although there are players with better pedigrees on both rosters, Tristan Thompson is the key to the series for me. If he can hurt the Warriors on the offensive glass the way he has past opponents, and effectively switch out on shooters or defend the paint on defense, the Cavaliers will be able to compete in this series. His offensive board work can help neutralize one of the Warriors' best defensive advantages--rim protection. Missed layups as the Warrior bigs contest are excellent fodder for his boardwork, and his rebounding can intimidate opposing bigs into staying home on him to box out rather than challenging drivers. Offensive rebounding will also be key to limiting the Golden State transition game.

On the other end, Thompson is the one Cleveland big who can switch out on shooters like Curry and Thompson on Golden State's pick and rolls and dribble handoffs. His ability to do that in the playoffs has been a revelation, but Curry is no Jeff Teague or Derrick Rose.

Adam Lauridsen, Fast Break: Draymond Green vs. everybody. Green will get major minutes against LeBron James, but the Warriors also will need him to do battle with Tristan Thompson in the post. If Green has a dominant series on defense and the glass, it'll be very hard for Cleveland to win. Green remains the linchpin of the Warriors' defensive attack, as he's been all season. Green's offensive role also shouldn't be overlooked. If he can stretch the court with threes, he'll make it much harder for Cleveland's defense. His ability to covert on the break also seems to rev the Warriors' offensive engine.

David Zavac, Fear the Sword: Tristan Thompson and Draymond Green. Green was the better player (by far) in the regular season, but Thompson has emerged in the postseason. Both play with extreme passion and energy and take pride in their games. Green is a bit more talkative, but Thompson seems to be gaining more personality on the court by the day. Both players' provide value with their versatility. It should be fun to watch them get under each other's skin, provided it stays safe.

Steve Berman, Bay Area Sports Guy: This one is pretty obvious: Stephen Curry vs. LeBron James. Curry won't guard James, but there's a pretty good chance we'll see James guarding Curry for stretches -- particularly in the fourth quarter. Can Curry handle a huge defender in James, who's outstanding on that end when he wants to be? And even when these guys aren't going one-on-one, their respective numbers (especially assists) will probably indicate which team is winning.

Daniel Leroux, RealGM/WarriorsWorld: Iman Shumpert vs. Stephen Curry. We may not see it much early in games or even early in the series but it should be pivotal in the deciding games. While the MVP has improved so much over the last two seasons, his biggest struggles still come when defended by a longer player who still has enough speed to stay with him. Steph did much better on Corey Brewer in 2015 than 2013 but Shumpert will be his biggest test of the playoffs so far, whenever David Blatt decides to make that assignment.

Nate Duncan, Dunc'd On Podcast: LeBron James against Harrison Barnes and Draymond Green. Thus far, James' blunt force trauma postup game has been unstoppable against everyone who has defended him in the playoffs except power forward Paul Millsap. He regularly put stout defenders like Jimmy Butler or DeMarre Carroll in the goal, forcing desperation help right at the basket. Are Barnes and Green strong enough to force him to shoot hooks and turnarounds out of the post instead of getting right to the basket? That matchup is going to be an absolute war, and I'm looking forward to finding out.

Adam Lauridsen, Fast Break: To win, the Cavs need to find help for LeBron. I have all the respect in the world for what James can do -- particularly in the biggest moments -- but to beat a complete team like the Warriors, he's going to need help. If Irving can pressure the Warriors' defense, it'll help balance the Cavs' offensive game. J.R. Smith and Tristan Thompson need to contribute on the perimeter and in the paint. But if the Warriors can shut down the Cavs' supporting cast, they should be able to win the series, even if LeBron delivers his usual magic.

David Zavac, Fear the Sword: Get Irving healthy, but we covered that. LeBron James must find his efficient self. For as good as he's been in the playoffs (and he has been), he has not been able to score efficiently, posting just a 49.2 true shooting rate. In last season's playoffs with Miami, James' true shooting rate was 66.8. He has to get a lot closer to that.

Steve Berman, Bay Area Sports Guy: Win the rebounding battle. The Warriors ended their series against Houston in an ugly Game 5 where they didn't shoot well from the perimeter, because they crushed the Rockets on the glass. Cleveland is the best team in the playoffs in rebounding percentage and offensive rebounding percentage. Second chance points will be a stat worth monitoring.

Daniel Leroux, RealGM/WarriorsWorld: Continue to limit their opponent’s success on three pointers. Cleveland’s opponents have shot an absurdly low 28.1% on three pointers during the playoffs (the Warriors are second at 31%) and while the general expectation is that teams cannot control this number, the Cavs holding it for another series would be enough to take the title.

Nate Duncan, Dunc'd On Podcast: Get Thompson to play like the best big in the series, a tall order in a series with Green and Andrew Bogut. James is also going to need to start hitting his jump shot. If he can do that, he may become too much for Green or Barnes to handle on the perimeter. If Golden State needs to defend him with Andre Iguodala or Klay Thompson, that will make his post game much more effective and neutralize the Warriors switching the Cavs' ubiquitous 3/2 and 3/1 pick and rolls. If James cannot be efficient offensively, it is hard to imagine Cleveland scoring enough to keep up with Golden State.

Adam Lauridsen, Fast Break: To win, the Warriors need to play defense. It has been the bedrock of their success. There is no lead they can't recover from if their defense is focused and aggressive. There are no superstars they can't knock off their games when they're playing their best. Each round has provided progressively harder challenges, and the Warriors have responded in each case with the defensive adjustments needed to win. Whether it's slowing down LeBron, stopping the rest of the Cavs or -- most likely -- some blend of approaches, if the Warriors earn a championship, it'll be with their defense.

David Zavac, Fear the Sword: In some ways, they just have to maintain the level of play they have all season long. I'm not sure that will be all that easy. Matthew Dellavedova, Tristan Thompson, Iman Shumpert and Timofey Mozgov play with energy and can get under opponents' skin. The Cavs aren't as deep as the Warriors, but the players they do have at their disposal are versatile. They'll do their best to disrupt the Warriors any way possible.

Steve Berman, Bay Area Sports Guy: Not try to do too much offensively. Their defense is great, but their offense AND defense suffer when they get too focused on throwing that "knockout punch" as Stephen Curry described it. The NBA Finals is new territory for everyone, and Cleveland's defense is stronger than many think. If the Warriors keep the ball moving with smart passes -- as opposed to silly lobs and crosscourt passes flung in desperation -- their offense will hum and their overall defensive performance will also be enhanced.

Daniel Leroux, RealGM/WarriorsWorld: Take care of the basketball. Unsurprisingly, the Cavs are another LeBron James team that is an absolute terror in transition. The Warriors have enough defensive talent to handle Cleveland in the half court but cannot give Cleveland a head start with excessive turnovers. After steadily improving over the regular season, the Warriors have turned the ball over 15.7% of the time in the playoffs, the most of any team. Even cutting that down to their regular season rate of 14.4% would substantially help the defense.

Nate Duncan, Dunc'd On Podcast: Forgive the reliance on an old cliche, but all they need to do is play their game. If Curry and Thompson can hit at their established rates from downtown, and the Warriors can protect the rim and the three-point line defensively as they nearly always do, they should win the series easily. But the Cavaliers are different than any team they've faced. James is a matchup problem unlike any other, while the Cavs' offensive rebounding in these playoffs has also been unique. The biggest key will be keeping Cleveland's three-point attempts down. Without the three ball, they will struggle to be efficient enough offensively.