The Mavericks and Lakers are near Play-In territory with a month left in the regular season.
Periodically, NBA.com’s writers will weigh in on key storylines or trending topics around the league.
We’ve seen it in the East. Which team in the West Play-In race has the best chance to make a Finals run?
Steve Aschburner
Los Angeles Lakers. The Lakers have experience and pedigree (two of the NBA’s official Top 75 players ever in LeBron James and Anthony Davis). Of the teams currently mired in Play-In territory, they have broken even against the conference’s top four seeds.
Golden State is 2-12 against the Denver Nuggets, the LA Clippers, the Minnesota Timberwolves and the Oklahoma City Thunder, while the Dallas Mavericks are 3-8 and the Phoenix Suns are 2-5 against that group.
The Lakers are 7-7 with, er, one big caveat: They are 0-3 against Denver this season, 0-8 counting the 2023 Western Conference Finals and the last 2022-23 regular-season clash. Somebody else will need to bump off the Nuggets for this scenario to happen.
Brian Martin
Sacramento Kings. To pull this off, a team must do three things. First, they must beat good teams. Of the four teams currently in the Play-In (the Kings, Lakers, Warriors and Mavs), Sacramento is the only one with a winning record against teams .500+ (20-17).
Second, that team must win on the road. The Mavs (18-13), Warriors (17-13) and Kings (19-15) are all over .500 on the road, while the Lakers (12-19) have struggled. Third, that team will have to beat the Nuggets. The defending champs loom over the West. The Lakers (eight), Warriors (six) and Mavs (four) have a combined 18 straight losses to the Nuggets. The Kings lead the season series 3-1.
While it’s doubtful any Play-In team will pull this off, the Kings have the best resume of the four.
Shaun Powell
Los Angeles Lakers. Everything about a Miami Heat-like surprise team depends on one very big factor: Can such a team, as it skips down a yellow-bricked road, avoid seeing the Denver Nuggets? Because that’s where any fantasy begins and ends.
None of the Play-In candidates can match up with the defending champs. In the event the Nuggets are somehow upset early, then let’s nominate the Lakers as that surprise team. The Lakers took three out of four against the Thunder this season and hold an advantage as well over the Clippers.
Karl-Anthony Towns is iffy, which makes the Wolves look vulnerable. LeBron James and Anthony Davis have won a title before, you know. And they did reach the West finals just 10 months ago. So, yeah. Lakers.
John Schuhmann
New Orleans Pelicans. If the Pelicans or Suns were to slip into the Play-In group, it would be them. New Orleans has been the best team outside the top four, currently one of four teams that rank in the top 10 on both ends, so they get my vote.
The Suns have the most top-line talent that will be difficult to match up with in a playoff series. Among the teams currently in the Play-In group, it could be Dallas.
The Mavs will need to defend better themselves, but good luck defending Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving for 4-7 games. Honorable mention goes to the Kings, who have the best record against the top four in the Western Conference (8-5) among all other West teams.
Record vs. top four teams in the West (teams 5-10)
| Team | W | L | PCT |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sacramento | 8 | 5 | 0.615 |
| L.A. Lakers | 7 | 7 | 0.500 |
| New Orleans | 6 | 6 | 0.500 |
| Phoenix | 2 | 5 | 0.286 |
| Dallas | 3 | 8 | 0.273 |
| Golden State | 2 | 12 | 0.143 |
Michael C. Wright
Phoenix Suns. The Lakers didn’t advance to the NBA Finals last season, but their postseason run after the Play-In Tournament was certainly surprising. They aren’t as dangerous of a team this season.
The Phoenix Suns own that designation in large part because of the circumstances involved with having new coach Frank Vogel leading a team that lacks quality depth but packs plenty of star power in Kevin Durant, Devin Booker and Bradley Beal. The trio dropped a combined 88 points Monday in a win at Cleveland and Phoenix is 5-0 when Durant, Booker and Beal score 20-plus points apiece in a game.
