LeBron James and the Lakers have the toughest schedule in the NBA during December.

Each week during the season, NBA.com writer John Schuhmann surveys the league to compile stats and notes for his in-depth Power Rankings. Before the next rankings drop on Monday, here are some of the storylines he’s keeping an eye on this weekend.

1. Lakers face a tough December

The Los Angeles Lakers have won six of their last eight games, recovering from a brutal 2-10 start to climb within shouting distance of a playoff spot. The bigger difference has been on offense, where the Lakers have scored 116.4 points per 100 possessions (sixth best in the league) over the 6-2 stretch, up from a league-worst 104.2 prior to that.

Of course, it should be noted that four of those six wins came against the Spurs (x 3) and Pistons, the teams that currently rank 30th and 29th, respectively, in defensive efficiency. And the other two — vs. Brooklyn and Portland (on Wednesday) — came at home and with rest advantages*, where the Lakers were rested while their opponents were playing the second game of a back-to-back.

* Through Wednesday, teams are 39-26 (.600) with a rest advantage, 27-10 (.730) at home and 12-16 (.429) on the road. The Lakers are one of three teams – the Magic and Suns are the others – that have yet to play a game with a rest disadvantage.

If the Lakers are going to keep climbing, they’ll have to do it against the league’s toughest December schedule when you take opponent strength, location and rest into account.

Their December opponents have a cumulative winning percentage of .525, a mark only topped by opponents of the Pacers (.546) and Pelicans (.529). L.A. will play nine of its 16 December games against teams that enter the month with winning records and another three against teams — Dallas and Washington (x 2) — that are currently .500.

While both the Pacers and Pelicans will play at least half of their December games at home, the Lakers will play 12 of their 16 on the road. That’s two more road games than any other team has this month. The Lakers’ December both begins and ends with road trips through the Eastern Conference (though the latter begins with their Christmas game in Dallas). Two of their four December home games come with a rest advantage, but they’ll have rest-disadvantage games in Toronto, Phoenix and Miami.

December also brings the unofficial opening of trade season, because most players who were signed to new contracts in the summer are eligible to be traded on Dec. 15. Perhaps that changes the Lakers’ trajectory. But either way, they’ll have to come up with more quality wins than they have so far (they’re 3-9 against the 15 teams currently over .500) if they’re going to compete for a playoff or Play-In Tournament spot in the Western Conference.

The Lakers’ tough December schedule begins Friday night in Milwaukee (7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN).

Here’s a breakdown of the December schedule for every team in the West:

Western Conference December schedule breakdown

H | A = Home/away (Miami plays one neutral-site game)
B2B = Back-to-backs
RA | RDA = Rest-advantage and rest-disadvantage games
OppPCT = Cumulative opponent winning percentage
.500 = Games against the 15 teams currently over .500 and against the 15 teams currently at or below .500
Opp. Off. = Games against teams currently in the top 10 and bottom 10 in offensive efficiency
Opp. Def. = Games against teams currently in the top 10 and bottom 10 in defensive efficiency

Some Western Conference notes …

• The Nuggets are the only West team without a rest-disadvantage game this month. Their only December back-to-back is a two-game series in Sacramento on Dec. 27-28.

• The Mavs are the only team in the league with 17 games in December, and only five other teams have 16. But, with games on both the first and last days of the month, the Mavs have just three back-to-backs (three teams have four).

• The Pelicans have the West’s toughest schedule in regard to cumulative opponent winning percentage and the league’s toughest December schedule in regard to opposing offenses. Six of their 15 games are against teams that enter the month in the top four in offensive efficiency, and they have a stretch of five straight games (Dec. 9-17) where they’re only playing the second-ranked Suns (x 3) and the fourth-ranked Jazz (x 2).

• The Blazers have the West’s easiest December schedule in regard to cumulative opponent winning percentage (.466), with only four of their 13 games against teams that enter the month with winning records. Three of those four are their first three games of the month, and they’ll have a rest advantage in Utah on Saturday.

• The Spurs‘ five road games this month are the fewest in the West, but one of their home games is in Mexico City, where they’ll play the Heat on Dec. 17. The Spurs are also the only West team that doesn’t face an opponent playing the second game of a back-to-back.

2. Surprising Pacers will be tested this month

Tyrese Haliburton and the Pacers have a challenging schedule to overcome in December.

The Indiana Pacers have been the biggest surprise in the Eastern Conference, entering December at 12-9 following their loss in Sacramento on Wednesday. As noted in the Power Rankings this week, 91% of the teams that won at least 12 of their first 20 games over the last 20 82-game seasons went on to make the playoffs, and the Pacers were 12-8.

But the Pacers’ schedule will be more difficult this month than it’s been thus far. In fact, Indiana has the league’s toughest December schedule in regard to cumulative opponent winning percentage (.546). Only half of their 16 games are against teams currently at or above .500, but none of the 16 are against a team that’s currently worse than 10-12. They have two games each against the 11-11 Warriors and 10-12 Heat, along with games against the 11-11 Blazers (who could have Damian Lillard back when they play on Sunday), 11-11 Wolves, 11-11 Wizards and 10-12 Knicks.

The Pacers’ December schedule is even in regard to rest-advantage and rest-disadvantage games (two each), but they’re one of three teams – the Magic and Wizards are the others – with a stretch of five games in seven days this month. That stretch starts in Portland on Sunday and concludes with a home-home back-to-back next Friday and Saturday.

The Pacers’ improvement has been mostly about defense; They’ve seen the league’s second biggest drop in points allowed per 100 possessions, from 115.5 (28th) last season to 112.1 (16th) this season. But so far, Indiana has played more games against teams that currently rank in the bottom 10 in offensive efficiency (10) than they’ve played against teams that currently rank in the top 10 (6). Their loss to the fifth-ranked Kings on Wednesday was the sixth time this season the Pacers have allowed at least 120 points per 100 possessions.

In terms of opposing offenses, the Pacers’ December schedule is tough. Half of their 16 December games are against teams that currently rank in the top 10 offensively. That includes their two games against the eighth-ranked Warriors and two against the seventh-ranked Cavs.

The Pacers are obviously tied to the Lakers in regard to trade possibilities. And it will be fascinating to see in which direction they go, both in regard to potential deals and navigating a tough slate of games over the next 31 days. Their December schedule begins with Games 4 and 5 of their seven-game trip: Friday in Utah (9 p.m. ET, League Pass) and Sunday in Portland (9 p.m. ET, NBA TV).

Here’s a breakdown of the December schedule for every team in the East:

Eastern Conference December schedule breakdown

H | A = Home/away (Miami plays one neutral-site game)
B2B = Back-to-backs
RA | RDA = Rest-advantage and rest-disadvantage games
OppPCT = Cumulative opponent winning percentage
.500 = Games against the 15 teams currently over .500 and against the 15 teams currently at or below .500
Opp. Off. = Games against teams currently in the top 10 and bottom 10 in offensive efficiency
Opp. Def. = Games against teams currently in the top 10 and bottom 10 in defensive efficiency

Some Eastern Conference notes …

• The Hawks have the league’s easiest December schedule in regard to cumulative opponent winning percentage (.422). Five of their 14 games are against teams that enter the month with winning records, but two of those are against the 12-11 Nets. The Hawks’ toughest December game in regard to opponent strength is their first one: vs. Denver on Friday.

• The Cavs have the league’s most home-heavy December schedule, with 10 of their 15 December games in Cleveland. That includes their longest homestand of the season (six games over 11 days), from Dec. 16-26. They’ll have rest advantages in two of their five road games: at New York on Sunday and at Chicago on Dec. 31.

• The Knicks are one of two teams — the Clippers are the other — that have yet to play a rest-advantage game, and they’re one of five teams that don’t have any rest-advantage games in December. They have only five all season (tied with Charlotte for fewest in the league) and their first isn’t until Jan. 22.

• The Raptors have a league-high five rest-advantage games this month. That includes games against the Celtics and Lakers on Monday and Wednesday.

• The Wizards are the only East team with four back-to-backs this month. That includes a stretch of five games in seven nights from Dec. 17-23. As noted above, the Pacers also have a stretch of five in seven (Dec. 4-10), while the Magic wrap one up with their first two games of the month.

3. On-off leaders

When Nikola Jokic rests this season, the Nuggets’ on-court production suffers a serious dip in production.

It’s fair to say that one reason Nikola Jokic won a second straight Kia MVP last season (in addition to amazing box score stats and ridiculous efficiency) was that the Denver Nuggets were 16.3 points per 100 possessions better with him on the floor (plus-8.4) than they were with him off the floor (minus-7.9). That was the biggest differential, by a healthy margin, among 261 players who played at least 1,000 minutes for a single team last season. With the Blazers’ self-inflicted swoon after the All-Star break, Jusuf Nurkic had the second biggest differential (14.1 per 100), while Jayson Tatum had the third biggest (14.0).

The Nuggets seemingly tried to improve their bench this summer, but through 21 games, Jokic’s on-off differential is much bigger than it was last season. Denver has been, amazingly, 26.8 points per 100 possessions better with the MVP on the floor (plus-14.1) than its been with him off the floor (minus-12.7).

Even more amazing is that Jokic’s on-off differential isn’t the biggest in the league. It’s been a tight race, but with the season one quarter of the way complete, Stephen Curry is edging Jokic for the 2022-23 on-off title. The Warriors have the league’s worst-ranked bench and have been 27.0 points per 100 possessions better with Curry on the floor (plus-9.3) than they’ve been with him off the floor (minus-17.7).

Here are the top 10 in regard to on-off differential through November:

Biggest on-off-court NetRtg differential

On/Off Court = Team’s point differential per 100 possessions with player on or off floor
Minimum 200 minutes on the floor (309 players)
Through Nov. 30, 2022

A few notes …

• Not surprisingly, Golden State and Denver starters occupy six of the 10 spots, including the top five. Klay Thompson (16.7) and Andrew Wiggins (15.4) are 11th and 13th, respectively.

• The Warriors have been staggering the minutes of Curry and Draymond Green more since both (along with Thompson and Wiggins) were rested (for the second time) in New Orleans ten days ago. Over the last four games, Green has played just 71% of his minutes (91/129) alongside Curry, down from 94% (144/153) over the five games prior to the rest day. The result: The Warriors have the league’s fourth-ranked bench over the last eight days and Jordan Poole has registered a positive plus-minus as many times in the last four games (4) as he did in his 18 games prior to that (4).

• The Grizzlies’ bench has had some similarly rough minutes, with two Memphis reserves in the bottom five: Tyus Jones (-20.0), P.J. Washington (-19.8), Spencer Dinwiddie (-19.5), David Roddy (-19.3) and Bones Hyland (-18.9).

• Curry (26.6), Jokic (24.2) and Mikal Bridges (20.1) have the biggest on-off differentials in regard to their teams’ offensive efficiency. Kevin Knox (-17.5), Immanuel Quickley (-15.7) and Caleb Martin (-13.8) have the biggest differentials on the other end of the floor, with their teams having allowed significantly fewer points per 100 possessions with them on the floor than they have with them off.

4. Usage vs. time of possession

Luka Doncic leads the league in time of possession, while Giannis Antetokounmpo is No. 1 in usage rate.

Giannis Antetokounmpo leads the league in usage rate at 38.2%, which would be the third highest mark in the 27 years for which we have play-by-play data, trailing only marks from Russell Westbrook (40.2% in 2016-17) and James Harden (39.6% in 2018-19).

But Antetokounmpo certainly isn’t the league’s most ball-dominant star. Usage rate just measures what percentage of his team’s possessions a player finishes (via turnovers, field goal attempts or trips to the line) while he’s on the floor. Time of possession, meanwhile, measures how much a player actually has the ball.

With Khris Middleton having been out all season, Antetokounmpo’s time of possession is a career-high 5.4 minutes per game (and up from 4.5 minutes last season). But it still ranks 28th among players who’ve played at least 10 games. Jrue Holiday (6.3 minutes per game) has had the ball more than Antetokounmpo.

The leader in time of possession is, of course, Luka Doncic, who has had the ball for 10.1 minutes per game, 1.7 more than any other player. That would be the highest mark in the 10 seasons of tracking data, topping John Wall’s 9.5 minutes in 2016-17. This is the third straight season that Doncic has led the league in time of possession, and he’s always seen an increase in the playoffs.

Luka Doncic’s time of possession

via Second Spectrum tracking

Doncic’s usage rate (37.1%) is the highest of his career, up from 36.8% last season, and it would rank seventh in the 27 years of play-by-play data. But it ranks third this season behind the rates of Antetokounmpo and Joel Embiid (37.3%).

So, while Doncic is controlling the ball more (and carrying a heavier load in regard to his team’s offense), Antetokounmpo is finishing a greater percentage of his team’s possessions. In fact, Antetokounmpo has attempted more than twice as many catch-and-shoot 3-pointers (he’s 6-for-24) than Doncic (5-for-11), who’s attempted 90 more 3-pointers overall (146-56).

Antetokounmpo has been assisted on 43.1% of his field goals, even with his rate from last season (even though Middleton – the guy who’s assisted him most over the last two years – has been out). Doncic has been assisted on only 10.1% of his baskets, which would be the lowest rate for any player in these 27 seasons of play-by-play data. The low prior to this season (for a player with at least 200 made field goals) was 11.2%, from Steve Nash in 2009-10.

Usage rate is a good stat, but it doesn’t tell the whole story in regard to who’s carrying the heaviest load offensively.

In these 27 years of play-by-play data, there have been three instances of a player accounting for at least one-third of his team’s field goals and at least half of his team’s assists while he’s been on the floor: Westbrook in ’16-17 (34.8% and 65.9%), Doncic last season (34.1% and 52.4%), and Doncic this season (35.6% and 53.3%). Westbrook’s Thunder ranked 15th offensively, while last season’s Mavs ranked 14th. This season’s Mavs rank 12th, though their jump in points scored per 100 possessions (0.2) is smaller than that of the league average (0.7).

When Antetokounmpo’s team beat Doncic’s team on Sunday, it was the Bucks’ most efficient offensive performance of the season. But the Mavs recovered to beat the Warriors two nights later. Dallas will now visit Detroit on Thursday (7 p.m. ET, NBA TV) before heading to New York for a Saturday matinee at Madison Square Garden (12:30 p.m. ET, League Pass).

Antetokounmpo and the Bucks host the Lakers on Friday (7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN) when Middleton could make his season debut. The Bucks will then head to Charlotte for the second game of a back-to-back on Saturday (6 p.m. ET, League Pass).

5. Best offense ever?

As noted, the Mavs rank higher offensively this season, even though they’ve scored fewer points per 100 possessions vs. the league average (+0.7) than they did last season (+1.2). That’s because there’s a team pulling that league average up like no other team has done before.

Two seasons ago, the Brooklyn Nets had the most efficient offense in NBA history, scoring 117.3 points per 100 possessions. But the Nets weren’t necessarily the best offense ever, because offense was up league-wide. They scored just 5.6 points per 100 more than the league average (111.7) that season, a differential that wouldn’t even rank in the top 25 over the 27 years of play-by-play data.

This season’s Boston Celtics, however …

After tearing up the Miami Heat’s zone on Wednesday, the Celtics have scored an amazing 121.5 points per 100 possessions through 22 games (including an absurd 137.9 over their last three). That’s 4.2 more than the ’20-21 Nets, 5.0 more than the second-ranked Suns, and 9.5 more than the league average (112.1). So while this is the most efficient season (league-wide) in NBA history, the Celtics also have the best offense (in regard to differential vs. the league average) in these 27 years of play-by-play data, with their +9.5 mark topping that of the 2003-04 Dallas Mavericks.

Biggest difference, points scored per 100 possessions vs. league average (since 1996-97)

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John Schuhmann is a senior stats analyst for NBA.com. You can e-mail him here, find his archive here and follow him on Twitter.

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