The Thunder’s Chet Holmgren has gone over 37 DraftKings fantasy points in each of his past two games.
Welcome to the Thursday NBA Finals DFS slate. Thanks to everyone who followed along in what I hope was a successful season. We still have some time to make some MORE money, but before this season wraps up, I wanted to give my praise.
Going into Game 1 of the 2025 NBA Finals (8:30 ET, ABC), remember to keep in mind lineup announcements and stay tuned for late swapping. That is going to be the easiest way to stay ahead of the field and in the money.It’s about making the right choices and picking your spots, which is why I’m here. Let’s break down the top plays for this slate.
NBA DFS captain/MVP plays
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (G – OKC)
- DraftKings: $18,300
- FanDuel: $24,300
I don’t feel like I have to go into too much detail tonight on this one, but Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is almost a free space tonight, projected for 80% rostership. The main reason I’m hammering Gilgeous-Alexander in this showdown more than the West Finals is that I’m kind of out on Tyrese Haliburton tonight.
The guard options beyond Gilgeous-Alexander aren’t as appealing. In past matchups against Oklahoma City this year, Haliburton was stifled, and I expect the Thunder’s athletic defenders to be all over the Indianapolis guard tonight. Gilgeous-Alexander might even be 50% rostered in the Captain spot tonight. If you’re entering a large-field GPP tournament, try to find a different angle, but SGA is the clear go-to play.
- DraftKings: $13,200
- FanDuel: $14,100
It almost feels like Chet Holmgren has been on cruise control these playoffs, with a breakout performance looming. To wrap up the series against Minnesota, we saw flashes of it, going over 37 DraftKings points in each of the last two games.
It will be interesting to see how Indy matches up against the Thunder’s bigs, but Holmgren will get some mismatches throughout the game. If the Pacers focus on stopping Gilgeous-Alexander, it will only open more spots for Holmgren. The Thunder’s bigs will also be highly rostered, but any non-Gilgeous-Alexander player in your Captain spot is solid leverage tonight against the field.
NBA DFS core targets
- DraftKings: $7,000
- FanDuel: $7,500
I don’t love how expensive Aaron Nesmith is, but I do love how low-rostered he will be for the potential ceiling he offers. If Indy is going to stay in this game, they will need to hit threes to keep it close. The Thunder allowed the lowest rim shooting percentage to opponents this year and the third-lowest two-point field-goal attempt percentage.
Oklahoma City lets up the third-highest 3-point attempts, so if Nesmith is hitting shots, he will be be set up for DFS success. I’m imagining a crazy-comeback type performance against New York where Nesmith hits eight of nine 3-point attempts. That’s a tough ask, but I’m not too concerned about the attempts. I expect Nesmith to match up against Gilgeous-Alexander, so he will have to stay out of foul trouble, which is not easy. But if he can, the attempts will be there, and that’s something worth buying into.
- DraftKings: $1,200
- FanDuel: $2,100
My first value option is Isaiah Joe. I expect Game 1 to be a blowout as Indy adjusts to Oklahoma City’s play, which means more playing time for Joe. I see him getting up to 15 minutes tonight if we play the hypothetical that the Thunder get out to a 20+ point lead early and never look back, which feels more likely than the game staying close throughout.
In blowouts, we’ve seen Joe score over 20 fantasy points. That would be an excellent return on investment (ROI). Any double-digit performance will be welcomed.
- DraftKings: $1,600
- FanDuel: $1,500
My next pure punt value play is Kenrich Williams. When he’s on the court, Williams has seen a near 16% usage rate and is defensively versatile, where he might see the court more just to open up matchup options for the Thunder.
There are a lot of value options that could pop tonight simply because they are excellent defenders, and see the court more, such as Alex Caruso and Lu Dort. Aaron Wiggins projects as a solid value at his rock-bottom price, too. Just in case you’re entering 20 lineups and trying to differentiate, these value options will all be low-rostered and easy to mix and match in your lineups.
- DraftKings: $3,600
- FanDuel: $3,300
Finally, the last Indy player I’m in on concerning the field is Obi Toppin. He’s capable of scoring at all levels and isn’t the best perimeter shooter, but he is capable of knocking them down. I expect most of the frontcourt energy to be focused on Pascal Siakam and Myles Turner tonight for the Thunder. That’s why I haven’t brought them up here and am fading them across the board.
Assuming those two struggle, Toppin will have open lanes and looks. Despite how good this Thunder team is, someone has to score for Indy. They are still projected for around 110 points, so it’s not like you should completely fade the Pacers in your DFS lineups. Especially if you’re looking for leverage opportunities, subbing any Thunder player for any Indy option will get you there.
