Chet Holmgren is rolling and leads the Kia Rookie Ladder as 2024 begins.
• NBA All-Star 2024: Vote here
Can we realistically expect this season’s top rookies, including Oklahoma City’s Chet Holmgren and San Antonio’s Victor Wembanyama, to be even better over what’s left of 2023-24? It’s possible, based on a breakdown of recent Kia Rookie of the Year winners.
A look at the stats after Jan. 1 for the NBA’s past 10 ROYs shows:
- Six who raised their scoring averages
- Eight who grabbed more rebounds
- Eight who dished out more assists
That seems to make sense, given the learning that goes on for new guys and the trust they earn from coaches and teammates in a season’s first couple of months.
Minnesota’s Andrew Wiggins jumped from 13.1 ppg to 19.1 ppg when 2014 turned into 2015 in his initial season. He rebounded more, passed for more assists and shot better as late Timberwolves coach Flip Saunders stayed true to his code of “giving rookies only as much responsibility as they can handle.” Wiggins’ playing time went from 31 to 39 minutes starting in January, and his scoring jumped 46%.
Former ROY winners LaMelo Ball in 2021 (+5.9), Malcolm Brogdon in (+3.4), Karl-Anthony Towns in 2016 and Luka Doncic in 2019 (+3.1) also bumped up their scoring after the holidays. Ball’s rebounding increased by 2.7 per game, and Doncic’s assists rose from 4.0 to 6.8 starting in January.
Neither Holmgren nor Wembanyama, who hold down the top two rungs in this week’s Kia Rookie Ladder, would say they’ve played their best basketball yet. Good as they’ve been, they might be trending up.
Weekly recap:
• Impact on winning counts most in award consideration for MVP candidates, but it’s not nothing for top rookies. So far, OKC has won nine more games through 32 compared to last season. San Antonio has lost five more after 33 than it had last season.
• Wembanyama (+3.4) has the edge on Holmgren (+2.7) in on/off rating to this point. Interestingly, San Antonio is 5.6 points per 100 possessions better defensively when he’s on the floor but 2.2 points worse offensively. For Holmgren and the Thunder, it’s the other way around: 3.0 better offensively, 0.3 points worse defensively.
Storyline to Watch:
Beware the rookie wall. For Julius Caesar, it was the ides of March that laid him low. But for NBA newcomers, this is the month when their energy and focus can ebb, when the lumps they’ve taken physically and mentally can pile up on them, and when production for many drops off. Some — including rookies themselves — consider this to be a myth, and with year-round hooping and AAU backgrounds, perhaps the effect is less pronounced. But nine rookies already have played 30 games or more and 14 have logged at least 600 minutes in less than three months, a greater workload (with more travel and responsibilities) than they’ve had before.
Latest rankings
(All stats through Tuesday, Jan. 2)
1. Chet Holmgren, Oklahoma City Thunder
Season stats: 17.6 ppg, 7.6 rpg, 2.7 bpg
Last Ladder: No. 1
Draft pick: No. 2 (2022)
Just since Christmas, Holmgren has helped the Thunder beat contenders Minnesota, Denver and Boston, with victories thrown in against the Nets and the Knicks. His use in pick-and-pop has him just fifth in his class in total offensive rebounds, though second overall to Wembanyama. Meanwhile, both Holmgren and Wembanyama boosters are going to like his answer to this question.
2. Victor Wembanyama, San Antonio Spurs
Season stats: 18.9 ppg, 10.2 rpg, 3.1 bpg
Last Ladder: No. 2
Draft pick: No. 1
The Spurs have said Wembanyama temporarily would be limited to single appearances when the schedule hits them with back-to-backs and play under a minutes restriction, precautions for the ankle injury he suffered Dec. 23. He is tied with Milwaukee’s Brook Lopez in blocks per game (3.1) and second to Utah’s Walker Kessler (9.9) at 9.4 in block percentage.
3. Jaime Jaquez Jr., Miami Heat
Season stats: 13.7 ppg, 3.9 rpg, 2.6 apg
Last Ladder: No. 3
Draft pick: No. 18
The self-described “SoCal kid” got mixed results in the first of consecutive games back home in the L.A. area. He scored 15 points with four steals Monday but the Heat got thrashed by the Clippers. He’s due to face the Lakers on Wednesday in his second-ever game at Crypto.com Arena.
4. Brandon Miller, Charlotte Hornets
Season stats: 14.9 ppg, 3.8 rpg, 2.2 apg
Last Ladder: No. 4
Draft pick: No. 2 overall
He was a late scratch Tuesday (bruised left hip) from Charlotte’s stunning upset of Sacramento. He still led the rookies with 24 attempts from the arc last week, hitting 12. Shot 5-of-18 on twos, however. Defensively he is second among rookies in contested 3-point attempts and eighth in deflections.
5. Dereck Lively II, Dallas Mavericks
Season stats: 9.0 ppg, 7.7 rpg, 1.5 bpg
Last Ladder: No. 5
Draft pick: No. 12
Coach Jason Kidd contends that in a re-Draft of the Class of 2023, Lively would be selected “top three or four,” significantly higher now that he has demonstrated his value. He has provided a jolt to the Mavs’ frontcourt. “He’s very coachable,” Kidd said, “and he responds immediately.”
The Next 5:
6. Brandin Podziemski, Golden State Warriors
Season stats: 9.1 ppg, 5.4 rpg, 3.1 apg
Last Ladder: No. 7
Draft pick: No. 19
Ranks 4th among rookies in 3FG% and APG and is also 4th in the league in charges drawn.
7. Keyonte George, Utah Jazz
Season stats: 11.1 ppg, 3.0 rpg, 4.8 apg
Last Ladder: No. 8
Draft pick: No. 16
Showed poise taking over in the 4th quarter (12 points) in win vs. Miami.
8. Scoot Henderson, Portland Trail Blazers
Season stats: 12.4 ppg, 2.8 rpg, 4.8 apg
Last Ladder: No. 10
Draft pick: No. 3
Scoot and five All-Stars were nominees for West’s Player of the Week.
9. Ausar Thompson, Detroit Pistons
Season stats: 9.1 ppg, 7.1 rpg, 2.2 apg
Last Ladder: No. 6
Draft pick: No. 5
Brother Amen (12p, 4r, 6a, W) topped Ausar (5, 4, 2, L) on Twin Night.
10. Toumani Camara, Portland Trail Blazers
Season stats: 7.0 ppg, 4.8 rpg, 1.0 apg
Last Ladder: Not ranked
Draft pick: No. 52
Double-double vs. Spurs, then sidelined (knee) to start New Year.
* * *
Steve Aschburner has written about the NBA since 1980. You can e-mail him here, find his archive here and follow him on Twitter.
The views on this page do not necessarily reflect the views of the NBA, its clubs or Warner Bros. Discovery.
