Storm vs. Wings Odds
-110 / -110
-110 / -110
The Seattle Storm and Dallas Wings face off on CBS on Saturday, the lone game on the slate for the WNBA, and a matchup that should introduce the audience to lots of fresh, new faces.
The Dallas Wings are sitting right at .500, despite several notable absences due to injury and overseas commitments. The Storm, on the other hand, have maintained a decent health record this season but are starting to play with some new toys in what is — and was always going to be — a rebuilding year.
The Storm currently own the worst net rating in the WNBA — and by a good margin. At -12.4, their net rating is nearly on par with last season’s five-win Indiana Fever team (-13.7).
However, that number is a little skewed. Because we are so early in the regular season, a big win (or loss) can really skew that net rating, and the Storm are a perfect example. They have played the best team in the league, the Aces, twice and have lost by a combined 64 points. Add together all their other seven games, and they are only a -2.1 net rating team.
Now, we can’t just write off those two games against the Aces, but in a league where the Aces have so far shown themselves to be in a class of their own, it’s worth at least noting that the Storm have been very pesky against the other tiers in the league.
The Washington Mystics are the team that profiles closest to the Dallas Wings right now by net rating, and the Storm hung around in those games, losing by eight and then by six.
Of course, the Wings have a bit more firepower than the Mystics offense right now, but they also have a much worse defense than Washington. And one player who has emerged of late as a very interesting offensive threat for Seattle is Ivana Dojkić.
In the last three games, Dojkić has seen both her minutes and points rise each time out — a great recipe for continued minutes and looks on a rebuilding Storm team. Dojkić is also on the top scorers by fastbreak points per game — a relative area of weakness for the Wings.
It seems unlikely that we’ll get a points prop for Dojkić at any of the main books (although I would take over all the way up to 14.5 if so), but keep an eye out at some of the sites like Underdog or PrizePicks if you are putting together parlays there.
Unlike the Storm, the Wings don’t have any big losses tethering them down. That is, in part, because they have played the easiest schedule to date. They have yet to play the Aces, but have gotten fat off of wins against the Mercury (twice), Lynx, Storm and Dream — those are the four teams in the league with the fewest wins (along with the Fever).
Despite that easy schedule, they have a negative net rating, and as such, by basketball-reference’s simple rating system, they are the 9th-best team in the W right now.
One area they have struggled in is allowing other teams to score on them, in the paint in particular. Their 103.9 defensive rating ranks 8th in the W, and that’s despite allowing the lowest 3-point field goal percentage.
That might seem like a good thing, but at 28.7 percent allowed, that’s a number that is more likely to creep upwards as the opponent level raises, painting an even less sunny picture of the defense.
One bright point for the Wings has been the emergence of Kalani Brown. The seventh pick of the 2019 draft has been forced into duty with Teaira McCowan first hurt and later overseas. Brown has averaged 13.5 points and 9.0 rebounds per game in her four starts and both of those numbers are pretty legitimate in case you see player props for Brown.
Probably unsurprisingly based on the tone and tenor of each team section, I am leaning towards the Storm here. This line opened at -7 at DraftKings and has already crept up to 7.5 as of this writing. Considering I thought it would open around the -8.5-9.5 range, being on the Seattle side will be my lean until around Seattle +6.5. Those two big losses are skewing the numbers on a team that aren’t that bad against most teams.
I also like player props for the two recently emerged players for each side: Ivana Dojkić for Seattle, and Kalani Brown for Dallas. Check their projections above regarding betting ranges for their stats.
Pick: Lean Storm +7.5 (Bet to +6.5) | Target Player Props for Ivana Dojkić and Kalani Brown