On Monday night, the Heat and Lakers each took a commanding 3-1 lead in their respective series with home victories. The Heat defeated the Knicks 109-101 while the Lakers outlasted the Warriors 104-101 thanks to a big fourth quarter from Lonnie Walker. Tonight, the Heat and Lakers each will have the opportunity to close out their series and advance to the conference finals. However, the oddsmakers have more confidence in the Heat making that happen.
The Heat are 3.5-point underdogs in Game 5 back at Madison Square Garden, but Jalen Brunson might have something to say about keeping the Knicks’ season alive.
Meanwhile, the Lakers are 7.5-point underdogs tonight back at the Chase Center. Closeout games are the hardest to win in a series, and this is even more relevant when trying to eliminate Stephen Curry and the defending champion Warriors.
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NBA Player Props & Picks
Jalen Brunson Over 25.5 Points (-111)
| Spread | Knicks -3.5 |
| Time | TV | 7:30 p.m. ET | TNT |
| Best Line | FanDuel |
Despite playing through an ankle injury, Jalen Brunson has been the bright spot of the Knicks offense in this series as he is averaging 26.8 points through the first four games. He has scored 30 points in two of those games and also scored 25 in Game 1. If you want to avoid the hook, you can take him to score 25 points at -130. However, this should be a high volume game for him.
In Game 4, we hit on Julius Randle’s points under once again. He actually had his most efficient game, shooting 8-for-13 from the field, but he still finished with 20 points. Randle still has to deal with Bam Adebayo, who was named to the NBA’s Second Team All-Defense yesterday. If Randle has another game below 25 to 30 points, more offensive burden will fall on Brunson, though he has proven he can handle it.
Brunson is averaging 20.8 field goal attempts per game in this series and shooting 45.8% from the field. That is despite shooting 8-for-29 (27.6%) from beyond the arc. Brunson did make six 3s in Game 2, when he scored 30 points. However, Brunson thrives at getting into the lane and operating in the midrange area. He is also averaging 6.3 free throws per game in this series and making 92.3% of them.
The Knicks can’t afford to have him off the court, and consequently, he is playing 40 minutes per game in this series. New York is expected to be without Immanuel Quickley once again, so it is likely that Brunson plays 40 minutes again tonight with the season on the line. That means he should plenty of time and opportunity to score 26 points tonight.
Pick: Jalen Brunson Over 25.5 Points |
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Stephen Curry Over 12.5 Rebounds + Assists (-105)
| Spread | Warriors -7.5 |
| Time | TV | 10 p.m. ET | TNT |
| Best Line | DraftKings |
In this series, the Lakers have made it an emphasis that Stephen Curry is not going to beat them. They are constantly blitzing him with double teams and forcing the ball out of his hands. Curry is still averaging 25.3 points per game in this series, but the Lakers have gained a 3-1 advantage. However, it has led to Curry affecting the game in other areas.
The Warriors have responded by playing Curry on the ball more. He picked the Lakers defense apart with 12 assists in Game 2, the Warriors’ lone win in this series in blowout fashion. Another blowout played a role in Curry having just three assists (and four rebounds) in Game 3. Curry responded in a big way recording a triple double with 31 points, 10 rebounds and 14 assists in Game 4.
Curry is averaging six rebounds and eight assists per game in this series for 14 rebounds + assists combined. Though his average is inflated by his Game 4 performance, he has gone over this line in two of the first four games. Curry’s assist line is 6.5 at -140 odds. I think he goes over that, but I prefer this combo because he is also one of the best rebounding guards in the league.
He has had at least four rebounds in every game in this series. The Warriors have also dialed back Kevon Looney’s minutes in this series, which means there are more rebounding opportunities for everyone else. That played a factor in Curry pulling down 10 boards on Monday night. Curry may have another double-digit assist game tonight; however, he also may have a game with eight rebounds and six assists. Either way, I like his chances of having 13 combined rebounds and assists tonight.
Pick: Stephen Curry Over 12.5 Rebounds + Assists |