After surveying the options for props on Wednesday’s slate, two names popped and they just so happen to be from the same game: Lakers vs. Grizzlies.
As always, we’ll be using the Action Labs Player Prop tool to compare our NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks.
Let’s jump right in.
NBA Player Props & Picks
Steven Adams, Over 9.5 Rebounds (+105)
|Lakers vs. Grizzlies||Grizzlies -6|
|Time | TV||8 p.m. ET | NBA TV|
Steven Adams has been a beast on the boards lately, and this sets up as a great matchup for him. The Los Angeles Lakers have struggled to find any consistency or continuity, especially up front, and since Anthony Davis went down with an injury, they’ve been playing LeBron James at center because the other options are that much worse.
James’ do-it-all skillset is part of the reason he’s been able to play at an all-star level as he’s gotten older, but even in an age of undersized guys playing center, this is clearly not a role he should be occupying.
Adams, on the other hand, is a true center, and as noted above, has a great advantage against the Lakers if they continue to play small. Over the past month, Adams has averaged 10.8 rebounds per game after averaging 8.0 through November.
He has notched double-digit boards seven times in 14 games this month, one more than he had over a 21-game span between October and November. The last two times Adams played against the Lakers, he grabbed 16 and 13 rebounds with Davis on the floor.
The Lakers’ strategy without much help in the paint will be to gang rebound, but Adams will be the biggest man on the floor by large margin. Our projections have him at 11 boards, and I think he’ll dominate in this spot. Getting this at plus-money makes it an even better play, and I’d bet it up to -110.
Desmond Bane, Over 18.5 Points (-114)
Desmond Bane set his career-high scoring mark in a breakout game against the Utah Jazz in November, and he’s been phenomenal since, setting a new high twice since then. Bane had 32 points in a wild win for the Grizzlies and since that game in November, he’s averaging 19.2 points per game and shooting 48.5% from behind the arc.
Teams have been leaving Bane open to cook from 3-point range, and he has scorched them every time. Bane is shooting 44.4% on 3-point attempts deemed open or wide open this season per NBA Advanced Stats, and those shot make up about 40% of his overall attempts. The Lakers are in the bottom 10 of the frequency of wide open attempts they allow per game (18.7).
Over his past 20 games, Bane has gone over this 18.5-point line 12 times and our Labs tool projects him to get 23.6. With the shoddy defense the Lakers have been playing lately, I expect Bane to feast again. I’d bet this up to -120.